Kelvin Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Declan52 said: Once again and for the last time if you want to discuss interest rates then fill your boots in this topic. Having it out over what the government did and didn't do during COVID is not for this post . If you want to discuss that then maybe a self build forum ain't the place to have it. It’s all connected. Inflation in the UK is being driven by the fallout from COVID, the cost of energy, wage inflation, the fallout of Brexit, commodity prices, demand led, supply chain bottlenecks etc We have a relatively blunt tool to tackle this with interest rate rises and it doesn’t appear to be working so far. There are a number of posts on this thread that aren’t directly related to interest rates but are connected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 I do wonder why the government are worried about Stagflation. I would have thought that a stagnant economy i.e. no growth, and above normal inflation, would quicken things i.e. lower interest rates sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Declan52 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Kelvin said: It’s all connected. Inflation in the UK is being driven by the fallout from COVID, the cost of energy, wage inflation, the fallout of Brexit, commodity prices, demand led, supply chain bottlenecks etc We have a relatively blunt tool to tackle this with interest rate rises and it doesn’t appear to be working so far. There are a number of posts on this thread that aren’t directly related to interest rates but are connected. Your previous post is about long COVID, effects of COVID on non vaccinated people and the wearing of masks. None of which has a single thing to do with interest rates. The posts from other members before that where about their personal views on the lockdowns and masks hence the warning to keep it on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, Declan52 said: Your previous post is about long COVID, effects of COVID on non vaccinated people and the wearing of masks. None of which has a single thing to do with interest rates. The posts from other members before that where about their personal views on the lockdowns and masks hence the warning to keep it on track. It’s the nature of threads so get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adsibob Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 I think @Declan52’s point is that this thread, which I think is meant to be about the practicalities of remortgaging/mortgaging in the present market, is not aided or improved by the ins and outs of COVID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saveasteading Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 7 hours ago, Declan52 said: maybe a self build forum ain't the place to have it. Agreed, and i wish i could block some contributors. Sometimes it's useful to know how little some people understand, or want to understand,( Lockdown was idiotic) . Especially complex stuff like numbers. And to remember they're out there and allowed to vote.. But it's not for here I agree. Is there a way of telling the system that I don't want to see a particular discussion or person? I've only seen this because I see everything that is commented on by a person I follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Declan52 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Adsibob said: I think @Declan52’s point is that this thread, which I think is meant to be about the practicalities of remortgaging/mortgaging in the present market, is not aided or improved by the ins and outs of COVID. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Declan52 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, saveasteading said: Agreed, and i wish i could block some contributors. Sometimes it's useful to know how little some people understand, or want to understand,( Lockdown was idiotic) . Especially complex stuff like numbers. And to remember they're out there and allowed to vote.. But it's not for here I agree. Is there a way of telling the system that I don't want to see a particular discussion or person? I've only seen this because I see everything that is commented on by a person I follow. I'm not sure there is a method to not have posts from an individual appear on your list of posts to view. Other than follow that person then you will get a notification they have posted and then avoid that thread. I'm only a mod, don't really get involved in the technical discussions that we have behind the scenes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparrowhawk Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 9 hours ago, Declan52 said: I'm not sure there is a method to not have posts from an individual appear on your list of posts to view. Other than follow that person then you will get a notification they have posted and then avoid that thread. I'm only a mod, don't really get involved in the technical discussions that we have behind the scenes. There is a plugin for Invision Community to do this, along with an internal setting that we seem to have disabled: https://invisioncommunity.com/files/file/9757-hide-ignored-content-completly/ I haven't seen any technical discussions behind the scenes either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSharp01 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, Sparrowhawk said: There is a plugin for Invision Community to do this, along with an internal setting that we seem to have disabled: https://invisioncommunity.com/files/file/9757-hide-ignored-content-completly/ I haven't seen any technical discussions behind the scenes either. I have started a new topic to carry on this aspect of the this thread to allow this one to get back on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12 hours ago, SteamyTea said: I do wonder why the governments are worried about Stagflation. I would have thought that a stagnant economy i.e. no growth, and above normal inflation, would quicken things i.e. lower interest rates sooner. Bless! https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/japan-1990s-credit-crunch-liquidity-trap.asp#:~:text=Japan's "Lost Decade" was a,down the real estate market. A problem with raising interest rates sharply is the time between interest rate rises and the effects, not only for homes but business and therefore the economy as a whole. Prices will generally go to where people think they can afford, and generally people all over the world have just had a slap in the face. I expect that interest rates will start falling before the spring but by then the damage will already be done. Completely different dynamics but look at China now. No money, no growth, even less money, even less growth..... ad nausea. What are China's interest rates now? Be careful what you wish for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Marvin said: A problem with raising interest rates sharply is the time between interest rate rises and the effects, not only for homes but business and therefore the economy as a whole. Yes, especially with so many fixed rate loans. How necessary is growth in an economy. If you say change the building of a £20bn nuclear power station to £20bn to build wind and solar installation that produce the same amount of energy, the economy in that sector stays the same i.e. no growth. How does the cheaper power that Wind and Solar produce affect inflation, downwards I would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSharp01 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, SteamyTea said: If you say change the building of a £20bn nuclear power station to £20bn to build wind and solar installation that produce the same amount of energy, the economy in that sector stays the same i.e. no growth. It depends on what the extra generation enables, how much of the profits from the generation get back into the local (UK) economy and the amount of work generated internally and externally in building the generation out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 minute ago, MikeSharp01 said: It depends on what the extra generation enables I think that is probably the nub of it. Big difference between making EVs and guns, even if the do the same amount of societal damage. 3 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said: how much of the profits from the generation get back into the local (UK) economy Is that really important in a global economy? I don't use my nearest corner shop as it is expensive and has limited stock, I go to the national chain an extra 100m away. 5 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said: the amount of work generated internally and externally in building the generation out. Again, does that matter in a global economy. I am sure we could swap huge amounts of the economy to more productive methods, especially in agriculture, while reducing costs (cash and environmental), which will reduce inflation and interest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSharp01 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 It matters because its our economy that we want to grow not the whole planet although I agree we are very connected. We have to generate enough foreign exchange to buy what we need from outside our borders. The strength / weakness of our economy somewhat in the form of interest rates informs the exchange rate. So high interest rates here makes the pound stronger on international markets which in turn has a variety of upsides and downsides. EG internally its a nightmare and externally its a bonanza - Cheaper to import stuff - including, curiously / obviously inflation if we don't make enough of the stuff we consume internally. Least I think that's how it works😁. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 hour ago, MikeSharp01 said: Least I think that's how it works I think how it works us unevenly, and that is the main problem. Why economist use purchasing power parity. It evens out a lot of the difference. Basically we should stop thinking about the price, think instead of the time taken. Money earned is only time multiplied by talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSharp01 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Just now, SteamyTea said: Money earned is only time multiplied by talent. Not always - but fundamentally yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 hours ago, SteamyTea said: Money earned is only time multiplied by talent. As every Tiktok contributor will tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Marvin said: As every Tiktok contributor will tell you Well they understand their market. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 On 17/07/2023 at 08:59, Marvin said: I expect that interest rates will start falling before the spring but by then the damage will already be done. Completely different dynamics but look at China now. No money, no growth, even less money, even less growth..... ad nausea. What are China's interest rates now? Be careful what you wish for.... Is this the start of the turn: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/your_money Who knows. Marvin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 On 17/07/2023 at 08:59, Marvin said: Completely different dynamics but look at China now. No money, no growth, even less money, even less growth..... ad nausea. What are China's interest rates now? Be careful what you wish for.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66435870 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Marvin said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66435870 China is a funny one to watch . Usual government statement of how fab it all is - but ultimately some extreme issues going on . Really difficult to read any market sentiment at the moment . Lots of issues in the U.K. - can kicking only gets you so far . Mortgage rates have dropped a bit and will go further once boe base declines . Having said that I have never known lenders being so difficult to please for remortgages . Some of my properties are deemed “ unmortgagable “ ( even though been mortgaged for 20 yrs ) - as they find the most bizarre reason to reject you . Suggests to me they are preparing for downturn I.e repossessions increasing …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 I would think that the banks know what outstanding loans they have, and what percentage of defaults they can stand, that is just normal business practice. What they cannot know, but can influence a bit, is property price deflation, one they they do not want as it affects their balance sheet. By dropping the interest rates a bit, they will reduce their default rate and maybe reduce house price deflation. It is a bit like a short term sale when someone has over order a part, better to get something for those fresh buns than get nothing for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said: I would think that the banks know what outstanding loans they have, and what percentage of defaults they can stand, that is just normal business practice. What they cannot know, but can influence a bit, is property price deflation, one they they do not want as it affects their balance sheet. By dropping the interest rates a bit, they will reduce their default rate and maybe reduce house price deflation. It is a bit like a short term sale when someone has over order a part, better to get something for those fresh buns than get nothing for them. I’d agree with that in the past . Previously loads of equity was deemed good as the lenders risk is reduced assuming they have to get it repossessed . Now though with ltv of sub 50% they still find reasons to not have you on their books ….. ( I’m finding this of course with certain btl not vanilla residential ) Edited August 12, 2023 by Pocster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 37 minutes ago, Pocster said: Now though with ltv of sub 50% they still find reasons to not have you on their books What is that actually telling us? That they think a very serious crash is coming (if the borrower defaults then, I think, the lender has to step in and collect rent). If a serious crash does come, landlords will loose their customers as they will be buying. Going to be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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