No signs of slowing down

[nod]

I’ve just started the plastering on a 190 houses site For WD One gang of bricklayer s Three joiners and no ground-workers 

17 staff in the site office 

We are supposed to be on there for two years It’s going to be a lot longer 

 

If you would have asked me six months ago I would have thought things would have slowed dramatically by now 

 

With inflation spiraling out of control 

Something will have to give 

[Conor]

Mate got quotes back for extension and renovation. Double what he expected.... His dad is a QS!!! One builder openly said that he's put on 30% on top of his current costs to cover expected rises over the next 6 months.

 

We can't get a tiler for love nor money. My plumber is only available for two days in January. Digger driver can only do weekends and odd half day. Really hard to get any decent progress.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Conor

[saveasteading]

1 hour ago, Conor said:

Double what he expected.

We are still being advised that our project will cost double to 2.5 times what we have allowed. So far we are on track. BUT this is with a whole lot of knowledge and serious project management, and a preparedness to keep looking for an alternative.

Allow for outside design and project management, 'reliable' but bigger builders etc and it can easily double. everybody is right and also wrong.

 

30% contingency is just wrong. Prices are already high. But 30% overall margin is common enough 

 

[nod]

42 minutes ago, saveasteading said:

We are still being advised that our project will cost double to 2.5 times what we have allowed. So far we are on track. BUT this is with a whole lot of knowledge and serious project management, and a preparedness to keep looking for an alternative.

Allow for outside design and project management, 'reliable' but bigger builders etc and it can easily double. everybody is right and also wrong.

 

30% contingency is just wrong. Prices are already high. But 30% overall margin is common enough 

 

Yes we expect to be quite a bit more than The 815m2  we came in at three years ago

[DragsterDriver]

3 hours ago, nod said:

I’ve just started the plastering on a 190 houses site For WD One gang of bricklayer s Three joiners and no ground-workers 

17 staff in the site office 

We are supposed to be on there for two years It’s going to be a lot longer 

 

If you would have asked me six months ago I would have thought things would have slowed dramatically by now 

 

With inflation spiraling out of control 

Something will have to give 

thats all I keep hearing- something has to give.

 

material costs.

Labour rates.

transport costs.

 

all spiralling.

[Faz]

The price rises are insane - internal doors - +50% since August (already paid for all of mine but my neighbor just bought the same for his build)

Laminate - +100% since July

Screed - +100% in 12 months

The list goes on...

 

HMG tells us inflation is running at 5% - what a joke. Those clowns couldn't find their arse with both hands with their Mistress giving directions!  Double the money supply or worse then you get what you deserve. At least on here we are into hard assets - cash will just evaporate.

[nod]

5 minutes ago, Faz said:

The price rises are insane - internal doors - +50% since August (already paid for all of mine but my neighbor just bought the same for his build)

Laminate - +100% since July

Screed - +100% in 12 months

The list goes on...

 

HMG tells us inflation is running at 5% - what a joke. Those clowns couldn't find their arse with both hands with their Mistress giving directions!  Double the money supply or worse then you get what you deserve. At least on here we are into hard assets - cash will just evaporate.

I really can’t fathom how they reach a figure of 5% Perhaps Boris has done the maths 

[Faz]

Lies, dammed lies and statistics nod.  A few real treats go into inflation calcs - see what you makes of this -

 

Chaining - so you go to buy your Sunday roast and fancy a bit of beef but, f*ck me look at the price of the thing at £10/kg - so you buy pork instead at £3/kg.  Well that is £3 in your CPI basket then.

 

And the real charmer - Hedonic Adjustment - so last year you bought your pos iPhone 12 for £800 and this year you bought your iPhone 13 (because you are a sheep) for £900.  The price has gone up right? Wrong - we are clearly being dumb.  The iPhone 13 is 20% more powerful than the 12 so actually the price has fallen by £80.  So £80 out of the basket.

 

Lots of other tricks but the number is basically bollocks.

[Iceverge]

So what you're all saying is I should get another loan........

[saveasteading]

5% is based on a standard 'basket' and does not include construction. It is 7% according to a superseded 'basket'.

I think it is for 'things' that people buy all the time, like groceries, and fuel.

 

On construction costs I established that , for example, there was more value in site control than in getting discounts. eg concrete where the digger goes too wide and deep and then it is filled with concrete, 5% discount and 20% waste.

 

Ask them all where the risk is . They know some of the answers if asked about their own field. And then how to limit it

 

If not shy, the same question can be asked of each of the designers and each of the trades.

 

After all the roundings up and allowance for risk, the contractor puts 30% on top of the waste you are already paying for.

 

You really can make huge savings (or the other way round, avoid excess cost) but it takes hard work, supervision and some skill.

 

Someone has to allow for risk along the way, but the cost comes back to the client. 

 

[Adsibob]

2 hours ago, Iceverge said:

So what you're all saying is I should get another loan........

That's what I'm having to do... or two.

[nod]

Some of the jobs I’m starting will run for two years BG have a 5% rise coming in early next year All contractors are including a clause that the client will stand material rises above 5% Wage rises will have to be absorbed by us 

 

Tiling is a good example for me 

I buy the tiles at say £20 Supply at 25

Pay The tiler £15.50 £ £9 on top for me 

If the tiles jump up by a tenner I’ll have a 190 bathrooms and on suites to do at a loss 

 

Housing is easy The builder just bumps it onto the price of the house 

Commercial isn’t All the extra costs has to be stood by the end user 

As builders are now inserting the same closes 

 

I worked on two TF site this year that have been delayed due to the TF companies going bust 

One TF job that we’ve recently started 22 homes Had seen timber prices add £1200 per plot Before they even set foot onsite 

At least these clauses should stop this happening 

 

We had everything on spreadsheets months before we started on our last build 

This time we haven’t 

It’s very hard to predict 
 

 

 

[SimonD]

3 hours ago, nod said:

It’s very hard to predict 

 

It must be difficult being a contractor in these situations as you're at the front end. What helps even less is that official figures seem to be contradictory. ONS Construction Output figures suggest annual price inflation up to September of just 5.5% for all construction work, 7.8% if you just look at new build. Then there are figures that show forecast contractor tender and price inflation of just 2.7% for the next year! Somebody clearly hasn't left their office in a while.

 

Clearly something is going to come out in the wash as some point soon, probably about 3 months before the government finds out about it.

[SteamyTea]

BoE raised interest rates today.

0.25%

[nod]

I forget to mention The company that I was referring to That are struggling for trades Have a turnover of 1.3 Billion 

So what chance have we 

[eandg]

Are trades issues exacerbated by Brexit? In the west of Scotland which has historically had less reliance on foreign labour (but had local labour sucked south when labour markets are tight - less so now due to Covid) everyone is busy and making good money but you can still largely get trades in if you're a decent client. 

[saveasteading]

1 hour ago, eandg said:

if you're a decent client.

How true. A successful project needs collaboration and that includes a good client. Not a soft one but a fair one. 

1. Be clear

2. Be fair

3. Pay the bill in good time

4. Listen to suggestions and make clear decisions.

5. Don't stand for any nonsense, but use civil discussion not threats.

 

The stress as a contractor with a difficult client can be immense. Some contractors chase the big chance and extra money, while others welcome having a choice of project and client.