Ferdinand

The "solar pv power in a power cut" is one that I have been reflecting on. Need to think about what the requirements are - do the rectifiers need a power supply themselves? The other mini thing I have in place is a couple of chunky phase change cooling blocks n the freezer which will keep it cooler for longer. These were supplied. No idea how they are specced, but total mass is 2.5kg.

Can you justify these numbers with a source before I rework, please? Happy to do so, however. Accept that. 24.4 GW current wind nameplate power capacity. This actually seems to be 17.6 GW, ie 25% higher than your number - though estimates such as we are doing need mean averages and totals, not peaks. On May 4 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/21/may-gales-help-britain-set-record-for-wind-power-generation I make that more like 8.6 GW, which is 50+% higher than your number. Based on wind energy generated of 75,369 GWh (2020 Govt Environmental Accounts), divide by (24*365), gives a mean average power output of 8.60 GW. Are you missing that Offshore wind has a far higher capacity factor than Onshore wind, and all the new fields are offshore? For offshore it is 46% - just under half, and for onshore it is 28%. For new offshore wind coming on stream it is higher, which is why I use 0.5 or 50% in my estimate. Seems so to me. 1 - In resilience terms, we get a new stable source of elec,which is overwhelmingly low carbon - 90%+ in No is hydro. Part of teh answer to "occasionally no wind, sometimes no sun"? 2 - In C02 terms that's clearly a benefit. National Grid have an animated presentation of live. Nat Grid say they save 3 million tonnes a year, even without full data from the new one. data: https://www.nationalgridcleanenergy.com/powerofnow/ 3 - In kWh, it is extra capacity if required - at a time when we are seeking to increase renewable supply availability. 4 - In £, it is a more open market, and aiui Norway Link gives us access to another pricing pool. Plus I see no reason why we can't end up being more of an exporter over say 8-15 years. 5 - Politically, diversity of supply has to be good, surely? I'll avoid politics, however, beyond noting Mr Macaron's efforts to use it as a political lever - electricity being France's 2nd or 3rd largest export to the UK. There's quite an interesting pipeline of interconnectors coming on stream (somewhat old list, and I'd expect some of these to fail): https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/interconnectors F

What low carbon progress do you expect to arrive over the next year to achieve such a startling change in energy generation? The reality is that we will likely see a rise in carbon-based UK electricity generation because our nuclear capacity is being retired early with 1.4GW due to be lost this year. New wind farm capacity will only nudge the dial a percent or two each year, for example the biggest recent news in wind farms was Triton Knoll which took years to build and came online last year with 0.8GW capacity. It isn't startling imo. Let me take you through it. My samples of elec generation (=elec use as near as dammit) are Gridwatch graphs. I am taking the last month as a proxy for "winter" and the whole year as a proxy for the whole year. Percentages of elec supply. Gas fired is orange. Offshore wind is turquoise. https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent Actual amounts in GWh: Assumptions 1 - The % share for gas / wind / nuclear in energy production over the year are something like 40%:30%:20%, judging by that - but let's work with my generous 50% guestimate for now for % of electricity made by gas. 2 - Total demand is about 35 GW in the winter, falling to 28GW in the summer - a fall of 20%. 3 - Offshore wind farm availability is now around 60%. ie a 1GW nameplate capacity windfarm will produce an average of .6GW output (Production Based Availability, which is the one relevant to total generation). https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Definitions-of-availability-terms-for-the-wind-industry-white-paper-09-08-2017.pdf Generation of Electricity 4 - So eg Triton Knoll with 857 MW nominal capacity should produce something around 514 MW, or call it 0.5 GW. The first turbine there went active in Sept last year, and will be fully operational by end of Q1. 5 - There are two big wind farms coming on stream this year in addition to Triton Knoll. That is Hornsea 2 (1,386 MW nameplate capacity = .83 GW actual), and Moray East (950 MW nameplate capacity = .57 GW actual). 6 - In addition we now have an up to extra 1.4 GW actual supply from the North Sea Link, which was half turned on in Oct 2021, and is now fully active at 1.4 GW. This is 2 way so is available when we need it, and ditto Norway. 7 - Plus the burnt down French interconnector is due back online by Dec 2022. That is worth another 1 GW, and usually exports from France to us the majority of the time. 8 - So to set against the 1.4GW going offline with the nuclear, between Sep 21 and Dec 22 we have 1.9 GW actual which is ours coming on stream, and another up to 2.4GW which is available as required. Up to 4.3 GW overall. Gas Calc 9 - Now consider if Gas currently supplies my over-estimate of 50% of electricity, and Winter Demand is 35 GW. And summer demand is 28 GW. Gas therefore supplies around 17GW of electricity in winter, and 14 GW in summer (though the 12 months of data above argues that it is more like 14-15 GW and 11-11.5 GW respectively due to my generous 50% assumption). 10 - Our new coming-online resources are worth a conservative 3.5 GW of generation, which can switch directly out from gas, and on gas generation of 14 GW or 17 GW represent 20% of gas generated electricity in winter and -25% of gas generated electricity in summer. Halve those to get a % of the overall electricity supply and you get 10% or 12.5% shift from gas generated electricity to other sources. 11 - Which numbers, once we use the data from the graphs at the top, give a reduction in the 10-15% range ie Gas generated electricity falling to 35-40% from the current 50%. Which is very roughly where my estimate came from. 12 - I think my assumptions are quite central and balanced, and I have not factored in reduced usage from higher prices, or the amount usage has been ticking down each year. 13 - To take account of the nuclear 1.4 GW closure that I was unaware of, my 50% base case for the amount of electricity generated from gas is generous as pointed out - and reducing that just to 45%, which I suggest is still generous, will account for that difference. A 10-12.5% shift of gas generated electricity to the other sources I have identified will put it in the range 32.5-35%. 14 - There are a few things we can quibble about around the edges, such as the impact on the winter 22 numbers of the first 200 GW of Triton and the first part of North Sea link being onstream, but I think the reduction in gas share of electricity generated in 2022 is going to be significant. 15 - Which is why I think the Govt have been right to take a short-term attitude to mitigating price rises, as I think they need to be nimble due to rapid change happening. But I wish they had done something far simpler such as "the cap will not rise at all, we will provide medium term borrowing to the industry for the difference, and this is the new expanded insulation etc programme that will take the £150 of green taxes off bills whilst doing the renovation job 3-4x more quickly". Which would have kept it all out of the inflation rate, and be totally flexible. 16 - I guess one potential change is if electricity jumps up after COVID, but as we will not all be at home all day it cuts both ways. The highest demand increase prediction for 2022 I have seen is 3-4%, whilst the 4 GW approx new supply capacity is much larger. (As you know, I do not think that electric cars will drive up demand appreciably for several years.) F

You talk to yourself too much.

I think sales of 500k units in 2005 growing to 1.6 million a year last year is significant, yes. Certainly in terms of a technology no longer being "early adopter".

Heat pumps are hardly leading edge. The market for them in Europe (including UK) has been significant for many years. https://www.rehva.eu/rehva-journal/chapter/european-heat-pump-market It's more to do with mass-unfamiliarity in the UK. And some rather vivid scaremongering from our wazzock-ridden media, and industry lobbies seeing the 21st C version of a Spanish Treasure Fleet, so running up the Jolly Roger.

That could be down to 30-35% over the summer, and only go back to 40% at this time next year.

That one looks like a return or similar. Not how I would get a boiler. “Image on the listing is from the item catalogue. The item is in an as new condition. It has been inspected and fully checked and is in full working order. The item is complete with all parts and accessories included. The item may show minor cosmetic marks and/or scratches. Packaging may have been replaced and/or may show signs of storage damage.” As for the fitting charge - no problem with that as I get an excellent, comprehensive, very cost-effective service. And I don't have to co-ordinate anything or deal with the students.

For a data point, I've just had 2 boiler replacements in student houses. 2 x Baxi 830. With new magnetic filters. 10yr guarantee. £3200 including fitting for the two. Organised by our LA who manage a couple of hundred properties and have in house labour, so probably a decent price. That's including VAT.

In Germany they have also cancelled two or three projects to provide 'Plan B' LNG terminals in the last decade, which is a material risk factor. And it works both ways - Europe is currently I think 80% of Russian gas imports. They have just opened a pipeline to China, but that is only about 10% of the capacity of current exports. I am not clear whether potential sanctions would also encompass the existing Nordstream I pipeline.

I'll be cleaning my panels early this year, having missed last year. They are very green. One issue is that even though our energy use is relatively low, many contracts are linked to global markets. Though elec demand falls by 15% or so in summer, and gas demand plummets of course. There is also a *lot* of new or repaired elec supply coming back during 2022. I am not enough of an energy market analyst, or know enough about how much difference the reduced elec demand from gas plants will impact gas demand and cost. Or how they could nobble the formula.

A few weeks in my area. In the past I sweet talked them into doing it in a couple of days, when Sir Guy of Gosborne was hoicking Stamp Duty with a special 3% extra for LLs. Got a pair of properties through with about 4 days to spare. It would be more complex to work the connections now, and I would need a very valid carefully worded persuasive excuse.

There are also back claims that the tenant can make depending on if any of the various legal responsibilities are not fulfilled precisely. eg if the Deposit is not protected correctly and the required admin followed precisely, you can be made to compensate the T for up to 3x the amount of the deposit. Personally, that made me stop charging deposits in most cases. And there can be swingeing "Civil Financial Penalties" that a Council can impose off their own bat for various offences, usually related to breach of licensing terms. Much of this is various political machinations to gradually undermine Section 21 over the last 10-15 years, which have made it all more and more complex. When the current Govt get round to it, it will be taken behind the bike shed and strangled. You also need to make sure that it is the *correct* tenancy agreement you are being presented with. I'm not trying to scare you off, more warning you that you are entering a potential shark-infested custard. I'd have the convo, and just make the offer as a thanks afterwards. There's nothing to stop you offering a cash sum to get them to move out before you exchange as an insurance policy, to make sure it is vacant. On the rapid exchange I mentioned above, I offered the vendor an extra £1000 to complete by a date that would save me the 3%. They made it, and got the £1k. While I saved £2k of tax. The resource required is an expert in English Rental Law (Scottish Law has now seriously diverged, and has a new and different set of 'challenges'). That could be a solicitor who knows property law - ask them what their expertise is. Or you could get paid advice from an experienced staff member at a local Letting Agent. I would recommend the Landlord Forums at Property Tribes or Landlord Zone, both of which I have been at as long as I have at Ebuild / Buildhub. That will give you much information, and both have sponsors who are reputable sources of information. Another way to get advice if you know what you want to ask would be to take out a subscription to the Landlord Law service offered by solicitor Tessa Shepperton. She does a monthly subscription at £25 or £30 and it seems you get a private Forum or 30 min phone call including input from Tessa. For a couple of months of sub it looks a cost effective way to get peace of mind. Tessa is a star. https://landlordlaw.co.uk/join-landlord-law/ Or you could join the NRLA and use their advice line. They will all tell you to make sure you are protected with asbestos underpants and an attic of paperwork before exchange, and that to some extent you are rolling the dice. I would say that for the circs asking on the fora, then paying Tessa if you need to is your best option. The thing you need is to feel sufficiently confident now that we have said all of this, and be able reasonably to anticipate and handle any consequences. F

Indeed. I think we mentioned something similar with Building Plot Options, where someone bought an option to buy on death of the owner, and the elderly lady lived into her 90s and the developer popped his clogs first. Like giving tablets to horses with a blowpipe. "The Horse Blew First"

This has made me relook at Smart Meters. Not sure, though ... large solar array but still on GFCH.

Your build is finished and you no longer need to buy anything ! ? ? ? ?

I see that Toolstation have started offering -5% Trade Discounts. Does anyone have any experience? How easy are they to get for self-builders? Are there limitations on what is covered etc? https://www.toolstation.com/content/trade-credit

Indeed. I was focussing on overall cost drivers and relievers rather than technology. It all goes into the electricity pot. It will be interesting to see if there is a tick up in solar installations as a result of the rebalancing of solar pv cost / benefit.

I'd certainly talk to them. Personally I'd also bung them £20-50 for their trouble if they are willing. A 6 month break clause only has meaning when a tenancy fixed period is a year or more. "6 month break clauses" normally relates to the practice of making tenants sign a new contract every 6 months, and charging them for the privilege aiui. I think that these days in England it is deprecated. It used to be a wheeze used by some letting agents to generate extra admin revenue by getting more renewal fees from tenants. Unless they are having that done to them, they are likely to be on a Statutory rolling tenancy - which will probably be the case for self-managing landlords. The 12 month delay Dave is discussing is that that is how long the eviction process is taking at present. If you find yourself in that situation but without vacant possession the quick fix is to bung the T £1000 to sign an agreement to terminate and leave. The risk is that you find yourself with a T who cannot be evicted. Lifetime tenancies still exist, such as an Assured Tenancy. Typically a property with an assured tenancy in palce is worth about 50-60% of one with vacant possession. To buy out a well-advised assured tenant will cost a decade's rent at least. Buying houses with Assured Tenants in place is a kind of roulette for landlords. Seriously, don't touch "tenant in place" without the appropriate risk management - and the experience to judge what is 'appropriate'. F

Looking at the numbers, I reckon my electricity demand is down by about half to 2400 kWh per annum. Solar PV is a big chunk of that fall, but not all as I have done a lot of other things. I generate about 5-6 MWh per annum. Calling solar responsible for about 1200 kWh of reduction makes it a saving of around £600 at 30p per unit. I'm delighted that rent-a-roof people are now getting a larger return in the free electricity for selling the soul of their roof to the solar companies.

My numbers, which I think are correct-ish, say that we have a significant chunk of that coming on stream this year anyway. Hornsea 2 - 1386 MW capacity Moray East - 950 MW capacity Triton Knoll - 857 MW capacity -------------------------------------------------- Availability = say 0.55 = 1756 MW average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom Repaired French interconnector - 1000 MW capacity (500MW Oct, 500 MW Dec) https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/11/20/national-grid-ifa-interconnector-back-in-full-service-by-december-2022/ So we get 2756 MW extra capacity at least. That's 66 GWh per day coming on stream / back on stream in the next 10 months. Plus there is a normal ~15% fall in elec demand in the summer, plus whatever happens to gas. I would say that will swap out quite a lot of gas power stations, as it operates on a cost hierarchy, and the amount of gas we need will be down quite a way. Add in that half of people are on fixed tariffs, and I'm not really convinced we are going to have the world-ending meltdown our media have been scaring people with. Though spot-price gas contracts, and perhaps for imported electricity, will mitigate against that. F

My comments: It's normal for Exchange and Completion to be on the same day, and for chains to be synchronised. The practice is that you sign the contract and deed of transfer undated, and your solicitor / conveyancer keeps that on file until both sides are ready to exchange. So I think you or they can instruct a solicitor or conveyancer to stop if it is still on their file. Subject to the terms of business you have agreed with your solicitor. Dave is correct the Tenancy is a red flag. Insist on proven vacant possession before exchange, and then be ready to move the process quickly from then. I would consider putting that in the contract if you are worried, so they are in breach if you can't get possession. But you need some legal advice on that. One possible but rare complication is if T claims unlawful eviction and claims it back. That would just be a tar pit to resolve. ie Change the locks pdq. Currently I would be planning on 4-6 months not 4-6 weeks to complete the process. As for what happens if they withdraw after exchange, that will be a breach of contract so you can recover your costs caused. Check with your solicitor what that actually means, and whether you can consider punishment clauses - though these may make them walk away. F

Surprisingly high. For a country with an equivalent population and about half to 3/4 of the area of countries people wanting to talk the UK down normally compare us with ? .

The UK produces less than 10% of the timber we use. Total use is something like 50 million tonnes. Most of that will probably be Scottish. One surprise stat is that total forest cover is up from 5% around 1900 to around 13% now. F

Can I look on the positive side? Does anyone have any new views? And how much space has been created for planting new mixed woodlands?