Why we need "Net zero"

[Oz07]

I still can't believe we are going to blow up ratcliffe on soar power station. I wonder if we will ever start using coal for electric again in the uk

[JohnMo]

2 hours ago, Oz07 said:

wonder if we will ever start using coal for electric again in the uk

Why would we?

[Oz07]

1 hour ago, JohnMo said:

Why would we?

Reliable, secure, plentiful 

[Beelbeebub]

10 hours ago, Oz07 said:

What about the undiscovered quantities i keep seeing being talked about. There could be a lot more than what is known?

The 50% fall from current production I refer to (ie 25% of today's consumption) assumes we discover more reserves and licence them.

 

Obviously if you assume we discover even more reserves you can make the graph do whatever you want. We could imagine the UK becoming the world's largest oil and gas producer and make our plans based on that,im in the same way I can assume my money problems will be sorted by a hitherto unknown billionare relative dying and leaving it all to me. 

[JohnMo]

1 hour ago, Oz07 said:

Reliable, secure, plentiful 

Are you taking the p!ss? Or still living in the 70s?

[Beelbeebub]

3 hours ago, Oz07 said:

Reliable, secure, plentiful 

I did a calculation in this thread. 

 

If we were to replace our oil and gas use with coal (ie electric cars and heatpumps powered by coal power stations) we would have about 25 years of coal using the upper estimates of coal reserves. 

 

So yes, short term we could move back to coal but we would need to reopen the mines and find miners, then build a bunch more coal stations and then still have a plan for what to do by the late 2050s early 2060s

[JohnMo]

21 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

I did a calculation in this thread. 

 

If we were to replace our oil and gas use with coal (ie electric cars and heatpumps powered by coal power stations) we would have about 25 years of coal using the upper estimates of coal reserves. 

 

So yes, short term we could move back to coal but we would need to reopen the mines and find miners, then build a bunch more coal stations and then still have a plan for what to do by the late 2050s early 2060s

And why were coal mines phased out? Not because they were great.

 

Think the energy used in this thread, would keep the lights on for decades.

[Roger440]

3 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

The 50% fall from current production I refer to (ie 25% of today's consumption) assumes we discover more reserves and licence them.

 

Obviously if you assume we discover even more reserves you can make the graph do whatever you want. We could imagine the UK becoming the world's largest oil and gas producer and make our plans based on that,im in the same way I can assume my money problems will be sorted by a hitherto unknown billionare relative dying and leaving it all to me. 

 

Theres clearly enough to make it financially viable, otherwise companies wouldnt be try to get a license.

 

Everybodies opinion here is irrelevant. The fact that companies want to invest in that, says there are viable reserves.

 

[Roger440]

2 hours ago, JohnMo said:

Are you taking the p!ss? Or still living in the 70s?

In what way?

 

It IS reliable (as decades of use proves) , it IS secure (because its here) and it IS plentiful. (we have heaps of it)

 

Thats not to say it doesnt have plenty of downsides, but those three specifically are true. And plenty of countries including germany are still using it.

[Roger440]

8 hours ago, Oz07 said:

I still can't believe we are going to blow up ratcliffe on soar power station. I wonder if we will ever start using coal for electric again in the uk

Because we are led by morons. 

 

You might not want to use it, but why not leave it there for a while. No one can know the future troubles we may have.

[Beelbeebub]

1 minute ago, Roger440 said:

It IS reliable (as decades of use proves) , it IS secure (because its here) and it IS plentiful. (we have heaps of it)

 

The tech is reliable sure. 

 

Security and abundance.... Not so much. 

 

As discussed ad nauseam the UK reserves are dwindling and the nature of the oil and gas industry means almost no nation can be secure against external supply shocks. The US is the largest producer and a major net exporter and *still* energy prices are rising. 

 

Interestingly, the two European nations who have seen the least disruption to electric prices are France (nukes) and (drumroll) Spain (renewables and some nukes. They are seeing rises of petrol/diesel/gas/heating oil etc because you car/boiler still needs to use the specific molecules it was designed for but the electric bits of their economy are plugging along with less disruption. 

[JohnMo]

8 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

In what way?

 

It IS reliable (as decades of use proves) , it IS secure (because its here) and it IS plentiful. (we have heaps of it)

 

Thats not to say it doesnt have plenty of downsides, but those three specifically are true. And plenty of countries including germany are still using it.

So no acid rain, the most polluting form of electric, yes it great.  By the time you opened the coal mines to feed one coal power station and build the power station, you could have built 3x the capacity in wind - Scotland did.

[Beelbeebub]

8 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Because we are led by morons. 

 

You might not want to use it, but why not leave it there for a while. No one can know the future troubles we may have.

There is some logic to this position especially if the plant has life left in it. 

 

There would be cost associated with the moth balling. 

 

I did wonder if they could be retro fitted to burn plastic waste granules. 

 

We (as is oft pointed out) still need plastic made from oil. Recycling seems to be rather hit and miss for various reasons. 

 

 

Why not collect the plastic from things we need plastic for eg some food packaging, medical devices, machine parts etc. Process them into fuel pellets for stock piling at Drax, Radcliffe etc. 

 

These might run a few days ie weeks a year as backup for low wind, low solar periods or extreme demand. They would be hellishly expensive and rather high carbon but if it's 10 days a year and the rest of the time it's cheap, ckwan renewables.... Thats OK. 

[Roger440]

4 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

So no acid rain, the most polluting form of electric, yes it great.  By the time you opened the coal mines to feed one coal power station and build the power station, you could have built 3x the capacity in wind - Scotland did.

 

I know all that. My point was the statement you suggested was taking the piss, was in fact entirely correct.

 

It wasnt a suggestion it was in any way desirable.

[Beelbeebub]

5 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

So no acid rain, the most polluting form of electric, yes it great.  By the time you opened the coal mines to feed one coal power station and build the power station, you could have built 3x the capacity in wind - Scotland did.

This is the big thing. Rather than plow money into fossil fuels, plow the same money into renewables - build more. 

 

Over capacity is a good thing. It provides more security, more days when all demand can be renewable and the inevitable periods when it is sunny and windy, we wil find ways to use that... 

[Roger440]

8 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

The tech is reliable sure. 

 

Security and abundance.... Not so much. 

 

As discussed ad nauseam the UK reserves are dwindling and the nature of the oil and gas industry means almost no nation can be secure against external supply shocks. The US is the largest producer and a major net exporter and *still* energy prices are rising. 

 

Interestingly, the two European nations who have seen the least disruption to electric prices are France (nukes) and (drumroll) Spain (renewables and some nukes. They are seeing rises of petrol/diesel/gas/heating oil etc because you car/boiler still needs to use the specific molecules it was designed for but the electric bits of their economy are plugging along with less disruption. 

 

Seems unlikely our stocks are dwindling as we are not using it or mining it. That statement is illogical

 

You last paragraph is irrelevant to the post. 

[Roger440]

4 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

There is some logic to this position especially if the plant has life left in it. 

 

There would be cost associated with the moth balling. 

 

I did wonder if they could be retro fitted to burn plastic waste granules. 

 

We (as is oft pointed out) still need plastic made from oil. Recycling seems to be rather hit and miss for various reasons. 

 

 

Why not collect the plastic from things we need plastic for eg some food packaging, medical devices, machine parts etc. Process them into fuel pellets for stock piling at Drax, Radcliffe etc. 

 

These might run a few days ie weeks a year as backup for low wind, low solar periods or extreme demand. They would be hellishly expensive and rather high carbon but if it's 10 days a year and the rest of the time it's cheap, ckwan renewables.... Thats OK. 

 

Yes, of course theres a cost to mothballing it.

 

You could convert it. No idea how practical that is?

 

My point is, we dont know whats coming. WW3 is certainly a possibility. Something bad but short of that too.

 

Imagine our supply of gas is heavily restricted due to war, and we face a postion of blackouts due to lack of generation capacity. Would you sit there and say, no, i wont use a coal powered plant out of principle, or would you recommision it, having retained it?

 

Theres only one answer to that that makes any sense.

 

We dont NEED to blow it up, as we have done with previous ones. To do so is utter stupidity. As it was previously.

[Oz07]

People will actually be sad when it blows up too. They like to see the cooling towers. Its all just insane. 

[Oz07]

10 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

I did a calculation in this thread. 

 

If we were to replace our oil and gas use with coal (ie electric cars and heatpumps powered by coal power stations) we would have about 25 years of coal using the upper estimates of coal reserves. 

 

So yes, short term we could move back to coal but we would need to reopen the mines and find miners, then build a bunch more coal stations and then still have a plan for what to do by the late 2050s early 2060s

Quarter of a century of reliable power while altering the grid and infrastructure for the next phase of power. Sounds great 👍