Rethinking the mindset for mass retrofit - a provocative idea

[RichardL]

53 minutes ago, ProDave said:

...designed by lawyers in a "it's not my fault" aris covering way so when (not if) we fail to hit our CO2 targets...

 

 

...but hopefully at least if (ok they wont make it) but strategically - if homes/small businesses etc are on electric - the solution to getting off carbon shifts to national infrastructure which should be manageable then at a national scale with an order of magnitude or two fewer  projects?

The national level strategy of getting small (definition?) buildings off carbon doesn't seem terrible in that context. 

Otherwise its always chicken and egg:
a. Don't move national elec gen off carbon because everyones burning carbon at home
b. Don't move homes off carbon because national burns carbon to produce electric
c. Iterate a->b, b->a, a->b..... net result do nothing.

(I know lots of ifs/presume/assume)

Edited April 30, 2023 by RichardL

[SimonD]

3 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Yes I did ask them why it was being proposed; they couldn't give a rational answer and refused to listen to alternatives (because, I fear, that it didn't suit them).  I also challenged their estimate of load and the calculations that they had done with the facts, but they weren't interested.  I understand why they werent interested, there is plenty of low hanging fruit out there so they dont need to bother.

 

So we've hit the nail on the head here, haven't we?

 

Given the choice would you really want to open up the heatpump market to a load of plumbers/heating engineers, local or otherwise, that are unable to rationalise simple design/installation proposals and explain it to their customer?

 

No, of course not, which takes us back to the nub of proper education and standards, including regulations that are in place to maintain those standards.

 

This also highlights the weakness of separating design from installation and permitting customers to choose different contractors under separate contracts and could potentially end up with a situation tantamount to employing the best architect money can buy and then asking a cheap shite builder to build to the design as if the design mitigates the installation cababilities and skill of the builder.

 

The good installation of a heating system requires good design knowledge as well as good real world experience of how to build that system into a retrofit situation - which is a skillful pursuit. So more skills.

 

I would question whether any of those who quoted you would be willing to put aside their egos to upskill both knowledge and experience only to be told by a designer what they need to do. Is this an intractable situation? No, but it is a tricky one.

 

3 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Im also proposing we expand the installation market big time using the only resource we have available

 

See above.

 

3 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Please explain your road map to 1.4 M retrofits per year at prices people can afford (cost is, whether we like it or not, always part of the spec). That's the requirement, whats the solution?  Its easy to criticise, much less easy to propose solutions.

 

I think I've been at pains to explain this from the very beginning...... For example:

 

4 hours ago, SimonD said:

What we should be doing is increasing the standards of training and professional registration by setting the bar higher and creating an industry that is valued, well trained and well paid. It may also mean that whether we like it of not, we have to pay a reasonable amount of money to those providing the service,

 

I think that in the first instance the government needs to completely revise the grant funding arrangements and fund the training and development of system designers and installers. The government needs to create and support industry with sufficient long term demand with stable long term policy that isn't going to vanish overnight due to the whims of a PM or Chancellor and bankrupt a load of companies.

 

In parallel there needs to be an overhawl of the education system to promote flow into the trades which becomes a respected and valued career pathway. This should absolutely be on a par with academic education and should be just as rigourous in terms to the required standards so if someone decides to go the route of a heating engineer, it means learning the maths and the engineering principles within the relevant systems.

 

Fundamentally the problem is a socio-cultural one (which includes education) rather than an engineering one and therefore simply looking at an engineering solution isn't going to get us very far at all. If you look at any of the countries with much better heatpump rollout, you'll find that what underpins the policies to support that rollout are socio-cultural approaches, long-term perspectives and often more generous funding arrangements. However, many of them have invested properly in their electricity grid and supply infrastructure whilst our various governments have tried to rely on the free market.

 

And so fro a socio-cultural perspective, I go back to education.

 

If I were to be pushed, I'd also suggest it more sensible to conduct a process of optimising ff central heting systems to run as efficiently as possible before installing a heatpump (like @JohnMo did with his system), and this is what is now required within building regulations for new heating systems, but should perhaps go further to include measures with replacements.

 

Another alternative is to instal mini and hybrid heatpumps running in parallel with ff boilers providing the majority heat demand but being topped up by ff where absolutely necessary. This would be a transitional phase.

[JohnMo]

12 minutes ago, SimonD said:

optimising ff central heting systems to run as efficiently as possible before installing a heatpump

Really they should outlaw S and Y plan, and make hot water priory or X plan mandatory for all new gas installs.  They should also make low temp emmiters run on weather compensation and 3m2 cylinder coils mandatory, so all gas installs are HP ready, but make gas boilers condense in all conditions, to give efficiency over 100%.  

[JamesPa]

58 minutes ago, SimonD said:

So we've hit the nail on the head here, haven't we?

 

Given the choice would you really want to open up the heatpump market to a load of plumbers/heating engineers, local or otherwise, that are unable to rationalise simple design/installation proposals and explain it to their customer?

Absolutely not.  I said that the MCS installers who quoted were unable to rationalise their design/installation proposal and explain it.  Every good plumber or good electrician I have met can rationalise their design choices (I have also met a load of poor ones who cant, I tend to avoid them).

 

I think many good plumbers and good electricians would find the implication of what you are saying, which seems to imply that 'middle aged' (your words)  plumbers and electricians are incapable of dealing with heat pumps, quite offensive.  Basically you appear, prima facie, to be writing them off and Im not sure why.

 

58 minutes ago, SimonD said:

The good installation of a heating system requires good design knowledge as well as good real world experience of how to build that system into a retrofit situation - which is a skillful pursuit. So more skills.

Agreed.  But that doesn't mean that design and installation couldn't be spllt.  They are different skills, one primarily intellectual and one primary practical.  Of course each needs to know about the other, have done the other, and from time to time do the other.  Anyway it should be a choice for customers and/or the industry, not a function of regulation.

 

Is the current MCS-led industry actually growing those skills, or is it in fact employing rookie plumbers to do the easiest possible plug it together job according to a set of rigid rules which protect their backsides.  I would suggest that, at least in part, the latter is happening (based on my personal experience and what others here say).

 

58 minutes ago, SimonD said:

I think that in the first instance the government needs to completely revise the grant funding arrangements and fund the training and development of system designers and installers. The government needs to create and support industry with sufficient long term demand with stable long term policy that isn't going to vanish overnight due to the whims of a PM or Chancellor and bankrupt a load of companies.

 

In parallel there needs to be an overhawl of the education system to promote flow into the trades which becomes a respected and valued career pathway. This should absolutely be on a par with academic education and should be just as rigourous in terms to the required standards so if someone decides to go the route of a heating engineer, it means learning the maths and the engineering principles within the relevant systems.

 

Fundamentally the problem is a socio-cultural one (which includes education) rather than an engineering one and therefore simply looking at an engineering solution isn't going to get us very far at all. If you look at any of the countries with much better heatpump rollout, you'll find that what underpins the policies to support that rollout are socio-cultural approaches, long-term perspectives and often more generous funding arrangements. However, many of them have invested properly in their electricity grid and supply infrastructure whilst our various governments have tried to rely on the free market.

 

And so fro a socio-cultural perspective, I go back to education.

 

Well I wouldn't disagree its at least in part socio-cultural, and neither would I disagree that our education system should recognise practical trades as much, or more, than academia.  I  wouldn't disagree with funding training either.  But the first of these  things take decades to change, even if there is consistent political will, which there isn't, and we don't have decades.  In many ways I wish I lived in Germany,  where practical skills and education of the trades is respected, but I dont, I live in the UK, so its the UK issue Im interested in. 

 

Like it or not, we need to work with the human material and the culture we have got whilst injecting better 'from the bottom'. 

 

58 minutes ago, SimonD said:

If I were to be pushed, I'd also suggest it more sensible to conduct a process of optimising ff central heting systems to run as efficiently as possible before installing a heatpump (like @JohnMo did with his system), and this is what is now required within building regulations for new heating systems, but should perhaps go further to include measures with replacements.

 

The problem is, that's going to get you 10%.  That doesn't make it bad but, in the mean time, we are retrofitting 1.4M gas boilers per year which will be with us for another 10-20 years.  Also, once people spend money on this optimisation, they will be even less reluctant to make the real change necessary.  Finally the only reason to do this at all is if we cant do what we really need to do ie 1.4M retrofits per year.  I fear you are suggesting we cant.

 

58 minutes ago, SimonD said:

Another alternative is to instal mini and hybrid heatpumps running in parallel with ff boilers providing the majority heat demand but being topped up by ff where absolutely necessary. This would be a transitional phase.

Not a bad idea, but currently not possible under permitted development, because permitted development requires MCS, and MCS requires that the system meets 100% of the heating demand.   That was the reasoning behind one of the proposed regulatory revisions.

 

I fear that some of your responses are based on the assumption I, and others on this forum, are rabid free marketeer, anti-practical-skill Tories (sorry to raise that, but you did first) and thus you are assuming that the motives are aligned to this political position.  I cant speak for others, but I personally couldn't be further from this.  My motive, in this case, it to find a way to deliver 1.4M retrofits a year at a price people can afford, starting in a handful of years time not in the time it will take to change the whole culture of the UK.  So far as I can see the current situation is nowhere near to 'cutting it'.

Edited April 30, 2023 by JamesPa

[Roger440]

12 hours ago, JamesPa said:

 

If it means that my local, perfectly competent, plumber and electrician can do the job then it would improve the supply of resource.  And improving the supply of resource will drive competition which eventually drives up standards.  Please don't equate regulation and standards

 

 

 

 

This is fundamentally untrue.

 

More competition nearly always drives standard DOWN. Becuase corners need to be cut to be competitive.

 

[JamesPa]

23 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

This is fundamentally untrue.

 

More competition nearly always drives standard DOWN. Becuase corners need to be cut to be competitive.

 

Really?  Please evidence that its 'fundamentally' untrue.  Computers, cars, mobile phones, all better, more innovative and offering more variety because of competition.  As are many services - banks, building societies, hotels, phone services.   Not perfect but better than they were as a closed shop.  Also plumbers, builders, electricians.  All offer a variety of price points from very high to very low, and the reputable ones don't 'cut corners' (but they may do things efficiently or innovatively).  

 

Are you seriously arguing for a closed shop in Heat pumps?  I fully accept that some standards are necessary (although I have no idea at all why the standards need to be more onerous than for boilers, which can kill you), but over-regulation stifles innovation and closed shops block new entrants.  Is the technology really so difficult that the good good plumbers and electricians are incapable of understanding it, I think not!  Don't you think these people value their own reputations and their livelihoods, so why are they going to do poor job, and dont you think that a good many of them would, justifiably, find the inferences some are making on this forum quite offensive.

 

I should stress that I'm not, and never have been, a plumber nor and electrician, and Ive had a good few run-ins with both trades.  But I also see very good ones who, it seems, some individuals on this forum are basically dismissing as wholly incapable.

 

Where do you propose to get the resource to do 1.4M retrofits per year, soon?

Edited April 30, 2023 by JamesPa

[JohnMo]

5 hours ago, JamesPa said:

MCS requires that the system meets 100% of the heating demand.   

That is not perfectly correct. It does allow a hybrid system to be used and installed.  But the heat pump should be designed to match the design temp.  The design temp our house is -3, but we had a few weeks this year, where for long periods it dropped to -9 or below.  So for this circumstance hybrid is ok. There is also a whole section talking about hybrid controls. You can't get the £5k grant with a hybrid system but MSC allows a hybrid, within the design criteria.

 

Here is the wording from MCS heat pump guide.

 

Heat pumps should be selected as closely as possible to the design heat demands. MCS Standard MIS 3005, requires the unit to achieve 100% of the duty at an external temperature

condition exceeded for 99.6% of the year, if reasonably practicable. It also stipulates that supplementary heat is not permitted from direct electric at external temperatures above the design

external temperature (“bi‐valent point” or “balance point”), but other alternative auxiliary sources of heat are permitted where this is not reasonable

practicable in which case the system becomes a ‘hybrid’ system.

Although additional supplementary heat may be required when the external temperature drops below the bi‐valent/balance point, this will occur

for very short periods of the year and therefore does not significantly affect overall seasonal efficiency even when direct electric heat is utilised.

Therefore, heat pumps should be selected as closely as possible to the design demands.

[JamesPa]

9 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

That is not perfectly correct. It does allow a hybrid system to be used and installed.  But the heat pump should be designed to match the design temp.  The design temp our house is -3, but we had a few weeks this year, where for long periods it dropped to -9 or below.  So for this circumstance hybrid is ok. There is also a whole section talking about hybrid controls. You can't get the £5k grant with a hybrid system but MSC allows a hybrid, within the design criteria.

 

Here is the wording from MCS heat pump guide.

 

Heat pumps should be selected as closely as possible to the design heat demands. MCS Standard MIS 3005, requires the unit to achieve 100% of the duty at an external temperature

condition exceeded for 99.6% of the year, if reasonably practicable. It also stipulates that supplementary heat is not permitted from direct electric at external temperatures above the design

external temperature (“bi‐valent point” or “balance point”), but other alternative auxiliary sources of heat are permitted where this is not reasonable

practicable in which case the system becomes a ‘hybrid’ system.

Although additional supplementary heat may be required when the external temperature drops below the bi‐valent/balance point, this will occur

for very short periods of the year and therefore does not significantly affect overall seasonal efficiency even when direct electric heat is utilised.

Therefore, heat pumps should be selected as closely as possible to the design demands.

OK fair enough but note 'when reasonably practical' and the subsequent terminology where it is emphasised that this is permitted only when there is no reasonable solution that meets the 100% criterion, and for very short periods of the year.   

 

That doesn't allow, so far as I can see,   'Another alternative is to instal mini and hybrid heatpumps running in parallel with ff boilers providing the majority heat demand but being topped up by ff where absolutely necessary. This would be a transitional phase' 

 

The final sentence rules out the possibility that full heat pump is not reasonably practical (I think) and the fact that 'mini' is used suggests that this is intended to be a part installation (lie putting in a single A2A to do say, half, of the house.   So I would say MCS does not permit what I think is being suggested (but I may have misunderstood the suggestion) unless there is no other reasonable solution.  

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by JamesPa

[Roger440]

4 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

Really?  Please evidence that its 'fundamentally' untrue.  Computers, cars, mobile phones, all better, more innovative and offering more variety because of competition.  As are many services - banks, building societies, hotels, phone services.  Not perfect but better than they were as a closed shop.

 

Are you seriously arguing for a closed shop in Heat pumps?  I fully accept that some standards are necessary, but over-regulation stifles innovation and closed shops block new entrants.  Is the technology really so difficult that the good good plumbers and electricians are incapable of understanding it, I think not!  Don't you think these people value their own reputations and their livelihoods, so why are they going to do poor job.   

 

I should stress that I'm not, and never have been, a plumber nor and electrician, and Ive had a good few run-ins with both trades, but I also see very good ones who, it seems, some individuals on this forum are basically dismissing as wholly incapable.

 

Where do you propose to get the resource to do 1.4M retrofits per year, soon?

 

You are talking about products. Im talking about services done by people.

 

Im not arguing for a closed shop. Where did i say i was?

 

I was just pointing out that the idea that competetion will drive up standard is nonsense. Opening up to anyone to "have a go" (yes OK, thats not quite what you proposed, but you get the point?) simply wont drive up standards. No one good will be able to make money because they will be competing with the chancers, so will likely exit the business to do something else. There are so many services where this applies all around you, i wonder which world you live in?

 

Im also not proposing a solution to do 1.4 million heatpumps a year. Because i already know its impossible. Primarily for one reason above all the others you mention, lack of man power. 

 

For some reason, you choose no to to see all the problems, especially when you have an actual heating system installer posting here, who, interestingly, said exactly what i did. You need to keep call backs to as close to zero as possible. Both I and SimonD have expained the issues here. 

 

I think the problem is you have zero experience at the pointy end of practical work for retail customers. And, i suspect little small business management.

 

Im willing to bet good money that your 1,4 million installs wont happen. They only circumstances it could will be utterly shite installations that dont actually work installed by people with no clue. Because they are cheap and available. 

[Roger440]

12 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Yes but grid capacity will expand as the demand grows, most likely with wind, which is the cheapest way to generate electricity these days.  

 

 

 

 

 

You reckon? I dont.

 

We are now into predicting the future, but i think the chances of electricity keeping up with demand are slim. But what do i know.

 

But ive got a nice diesel gen set for when it happens. 

[JamesPa]

20 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

You are talking about products. Im talking about services done by people.

 

 

- banks, building societies, hotels, phone services -all services done by people. I would add plumbers, electricians and builders also, where competition is accepted and brings both diversity, quality and innovation.

 

20 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Im not arguing for a closed shop. Where did i say i was?

 

I apologise, I thought you were arguing for the current situation where MCS is the only route to installations under PD.

 

20 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

I was just pointing out that the idea that competetion will drive up standard is nonsense. Opening up to anyone to "have a go" (yes OK, thats not quite what you proposed, but you get the point?) simply wont drive up standards. No one good will be able to make money because they will be competing with the chancers, so will likely exit the business to do something else. There are so many services where this applies all around you, i wonder which world you live in?

I live in a world where there are chancers, good people, and people in between in all walks of life.  As a customer I have to find ways to distinguish between them eg recommendations, reviews, interviewing them.  Why are HPs so different?

 

20 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

For some reason, you choose no to to see all the problems, especially when you have an actual heating system installer posting here, who, interestingly, said exactly what i did. You need to keep call backs to as close to zero as possible. Both I and SimonD have expained the issues here. 

 

Me and others on this forum please note (the suggestions werent primarily mine) but ... not at all do I choose not to see all the problems, but what gives one group of people a monopoly over this and why on earth do you so readily dismiss existing plumbers and electricians?  Anyone else doing a HP install, whether or not under MCS rules, will also want to keep call backs to a minimum so whats the issue here?

 

20 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Im also not proposing a solution to do 1.4 million heatpumps a year. Because i already know its impossible. Primarily for one reason above all the others you mention, lack of man power. 

1.4m gas boilers are retrofitted each year.  Where is the lack of manpower please?

 

Are you sure that you aren't trying to create a protected niche for yourself and ensure that there is little or no competition.  Are you afraid that these 'shite' installers will take your business.  Not for long if they are 'shite', so whats the real risk if what you do is so good (which I am sure it is).  

 

Finally Im not arguing for low labour rates , but I am arguing for more nuanced installs and innovation and a rapid increase in capacity.  Currently these are all suppressed.

Edited April 30, 2023 by JamesPa

[JamesPa]

10 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

You reckon? I dont.

 

We are now into predicting the future, but i think the chances of electricity keeping up with demand are slim. But what do i know.

 

But ive got a nice diesel gen set for when it happens. 

Well how convenient.  You can argue grid capacity wont expand so there is no need to fit heat pumps fast so introducing more players isn't necessary.  Keeps the shop closed and preserves the high price low volume status quo, but wrecks the planet.  Sorry your argument is one which leads to doing absolutely nothing at all, as others have pointed out, and has no evidential basis.

Edited April 30, 2023 by JamesPa

[Roger440]

2 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

- banks, building societies, hotels, phone services -all services done by people. I would add plumbers, electricians and builders also.

 

I apologise, I thought you were arguing for the current situation where MCS is the only route to installations under PD.

 

I live in a world where there are chancers, good people, and people in between in all walks of life.  As a customer I have to find ways to distinguish between them eg recommendations, reviews, interviewing them.  Why are HPs so different?

 

Not at all, but what gives one group of people a monopoly over this and why on earth do you so readily dismiss existing plumbers and electricians?

 

1.4m gas boilers are retrofitted each year.  Where is the lack of manpower please?

 

Sorry, but it feels like you are trying to create a protected niche for yourself and ensure that there is little or no competition.  Are you afraid that these 'shite' installers will take your business.  Not for long if they are 'shite' so whats the real risk?

 

Finally Im not arguing for low labour rates, but I am arguing for more nuanced installs and innovation.  Currently these are suppressed.

 

Cant do multiquote so:

 

So you know how hard it is to get a good builders or electrician the?. Because standard are so high there too! Not going to argue the point. You are just wrong.

 

You say you can distinguish between the good and bad trades. Please do put us in the picture how you do that. I think theres a fair few on this forum, never mind the public at large who would love to hear about it?

 

Im not sure why you think im involved in any way or pretecting myself? I dont do plumbing, or heating or anything else on houses. What i do have though, is a lot of expreince to working on relatively complex stuff for retail customers. So when i see some of your ideas, my natural instinct is to think about the consequences. Because the consequencers are what your workforce need to factor is. And do. 

 

The bit you are really not getting, is that your "cheap" boiler competative installations put significant risks on to the installer. Where is the motvation for the installer to take on these low cost high risk jobs?

 

Throught this thread, you have not answered this. And unless you do, you wont have your manpower to do the 1.4 million installs.

 

As i said, i dont believe you grasp this element.

[Roger440]

9 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

Well how convenient.  You can argue grid capacity wont expand so there is no need to fit heat pumps fast so introducing more players isn't necessary.  Keeps the shop closed and preserves the high price low volume status quo, but wrecks the planet.  Sorry your argument is one which leads to doing absolutely nothing at all, as others have pointed out, and has no evidential basis.

 

Again, you have taken what i said out of contect.

 

Im not arguing we shouldnt install heat pumps because the grid cant keep up. Did i?

 

My position is simple. 1.4 million installs wont happen.

 

You made a statement that it will expand to meet demand, as though this were an inevitable outcome. I think there is significant chance the grid output wont match demand, primarily because the country is run by morons. I believe that enough to have bought a gen set. 

 

The two positions are in no way related.

 

I repeat, again, i have no vested interest. I sell car parts. Please stop replying as though i do.

 

 

[SimonD]

6 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Absolutely not.  I said that the MCS installers who quoted were unable to rationalise their design/installation proposal and explain it.  Every good plumber or good electrician I have met can rationalise their design choices (I have also met a load of poor ones who cant, I tend to avoid them).

 

However much you want to wriggle and twist this, it comes down to training and standards whether or it's MCS or otherwise, which goes back to my point about not relaxing the standards to permit easier access. Yeah, you're always going to get variations but as I've said the standards and training need to be enhanced to provide better quality outcomes for all of us.

 

6 hours ago, JamesPa said:

I think many good plumbers and good electricians would find the implication of what you are saying, which seems to imply that 'middle aged' (your words)  plumbers and electricians are incapable of dealing with heat pumps, quite offensive.  Basically you appear, prima facie, to be writing them off and Im not sure why.

 

Really? According to whom? I haven't suggested middle aged plumbers are incapable. Perhaps too subtly I've suggested that they should be asked whether they want to or not. Gas Safe did and only about 32% I think said they intended/wanted to train in heatpumps. Locally I know quite a few in their 50s who have good established businesses who just want to retire and are currently kept from retiring because they're still so busy.

 

As it happens I have some personal direct experience here too. A few years ago while building my house, I got my quote for a heatpump. My response to the price was to half fall off my chair and complain about the price. However, I then looked into it and decided to embark on the training myself in order to design and install the system myself. So I found out what I needed to do and became Gas Safe Registered as the first step. I've followed this up with low temperature heating system design and a few other things. I happen to be in my 50s now and I've established a part time business with this recently too.

 

My view is that if I want to affect change within a system I need to know how the system works from the inside, and be on the inside.

 

This does give me a particular insight into the current training regimes and standards and I can categorically state that your assertion that existing plumbers and electricians are somehow excluded is wrong. Like I said, a friend of mine in his 60s has just got the tickets as it's just about signing up for the training and completing the tests.

 

Probably the most problematic part of getting into the industry right now is caused by dogma of existing plumbers/heating engineers as they tend to be reluctant to employ trainees doing their managed learning programme and so they can't complete their practical portfolio. So many trainees give up before starting or drop out of the training specifically for this reason.

 

When I embarked on my training I was insensed that I couldn't just go and do heatpump certification without going through Gas Safe or OFTEC training first. However, I've now realised this has provided me with invaluable experience working with a wide range of heating systems that will serve me well in the heatpump world. It wasn't what I wanted but I'm now very much better than I would have otherwise been.

 

But there is something about the training that existing and highly experienced plumbers/heating engineers will not have recieved. That is in how low temperature heatpump systems need to be approached differently. This has got to be taken into account. Therefore they will all need further training and not just be let loose on these systems.

 

6 hours ago, JamesPa said:

I fear you are suggesting we cant.

 

Yes, I am. And the proposals put forward here I don't think would do anything. That's because of serious and fundamental structural problems (including political will and action) to support a transition of that scale; a current lack of suitably qualified and experienced people to do it and a lack of production capacity and resource. To scale up to this kind of installation capacity will take years, possibly decades. The amount of investment required to support it would be in the 100s of billions of pounds, much of it required by government, but also a significant amount by the private sector which is going to be unwilling to invest in such a transformation when there is essentially an unstable policy base such as ours has been since 2016, but also since the tories killed off a load of insulation companies ad solar companies due to policy whims - 'cut the green crap' was one of the more stupid ones I think.

 

The direct cost to consumer in the purchase price of the heatpumps is actually a fairly small proportion of the total cost of this scale of operation.

 

6 hours ago, JamesPa said:

anti-practical-skill Tories (sorry to raise that, but you did first) and thus you are assuming that the motives are aligned to this political position.

 

Again, I was perhaps being too subtle. My point was that the Tories have had a tendency over the past few years to make policy announcements without actually talking to anyone outside their little bubble. They didn't bother to ask if people actually wanted to go back to work from retirement before casting assertions about laziness, for example. They didn't talk to anyone about the announcement that we're going to install 600,000 heatpumps the week after next (yes, that's a bit of sarcasm) without actually bothering to do anything bar set up a failure of a grant scheme followed by a totally limp one. Not only does this tendency unfortunately put off investment, it also erodes trust such that both companies and individuals are less likely to engage in that sector. Currently lots of people are put off training for Gas Safe which currently is one of the feeders for heatpumps because they think boilers will be banned in the next couple of years or so, which is in effect hindering new entry into the industry.

 

6 hours ago, JamesPa said:

MCS requires that the system meets 100% of the heating demand. 

 

The MCS is not the whole world here. Do your research in the industry and you'll find increasing murmurings about the use of hybrid heatpumps as a transitional step. In particular how it would approximately halve the installation costs, possibly more, but provide a significant proportion of the benefits without the extent of disruption of full blown heatpumps. To me it makes sense as it is more in line with the 80/20 rule which often has dramatic impact, sometimes better than a reach for 100%

 

With these, the manufacturers could easily circumvent the MCS by providing warranties directly and with manufacturer support you're likely to see the relevant changes to PD too.

 

There are also proposals to provide mini heatpumps that can be added to existing gas/oil boilers so reducing the need to throw them away while they're still working.

 

I know you're keen to ask for specifics about how to install 1.4m heatpumps a year in the next few years, but the answer, like all answers to systemic change is a highly complex one. It's neither simple, nor is it cheap, and nor is it to do with protectionism.

[JamesPa]

2 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

So you know how hard it is to get a good builders or electrician the?. Because standard are so high there too! Not going to argue the point. You are just wrong.

 

Yes, but  there is choice

 

3 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

You say you can distinguish between the good and bad trades. Please do put us in the picture how you do that. I think theres a fair few on this forum, never mind the public at large who would love to hear about it?

 

Interview, ask questions, test their arguments, check their reviews, seek recommendations.  Its not perfect but its also not bad.  And almost never choose the cheapest!

 

There has been the odd bad experience, no 'test' is perfect, but on the whole this seems to work. 

 

Im not sure why you think (or appear to think) that MCS is an absolute guarantee though.  

 

 

4 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Im not sure why you think im involved in any way or pretecting myself? I dont do plumbing, or heating or anything else on houses. What i do have though, is a lot of expreince to working on relatively complex stuff for retail customers. So when i see some of your ideas, my natural instinct is to think about the consequences. Because the consequencers are what your workforce need to factor is. And do. 

 

I thought this because you seem to be resisting change or competition or opening the business up to regular plumbers or electricians (not just anybody, these guys are members of trade bodies and have to work to standards).  People generally do that as a protectionist measure.  I apologise if I have misunderstood your motives, Im now a little confused what they are.

 

5 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

The bit you are really not getting, is that your "cheap" boiler competative installations put significant risks on to the installer. Where is the motvation for the installer to take on these low cost high risk jobs?

 

Not necessarily.  If they are well thought through using a wider 'toolbox' of ideas they need be no more risky.   No reputable plumber would take on something that they weren't happy with.  But I grant that today there is no motivation, because the low hanging fruit and government grant is there.

 

And at no point have I argued to cut corners.  I did say low cost, I did say nuanced.  But I never argued not fit for purpose.  There are solutions to the system engineering challenges other than the ones currently on offer.

 

5 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Again, you have taken what i said out of contect.

 

Im not arguing we shouldnt install heat pumps because the grid cant keep up. Did i?

 

My position is simple. 1.4 million installs wont happen.

 

I thought that you were arguing against expanding the rate of heat pump deployment on the grounds that its not environmentally friendly because the decarbonisisation of the grid wont keep up.  Apologies if I misunderstood you. 

 

As to the last comment, perhaps not, but, since its necessary, that shouldn't stop us trying to get close; currently we seem to have no plan to get anywhere near.

 

8 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

I repeat, again, i have no vested interest. I sell car parts. Please stop replying as though i do.

 

Well now Im truly confused.  You seemed to be arguing that you knew about the HP installation industry, but as you dont then I am wondering what you think is the problem with opening up the business more.

[JamesPa]

30 minutes ago, SimonD said:

7 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Absolutely not.  I said that the MCS installers who quoted were unable to rationalise their design/installation proposal and explain it.  Every good plumber or good electrician I have met can rationalise their design choices (I have also met a load of poor ones who cant, I tend to avoid them).

 

However much you want to wriggle and twist this, it comes down to training and standards whether or it's MCS or otherwise, which goes back to my point about not relaxing the standards to permit easier access. Yeah, you're always going to get variations but as I've said the standards and training need to be enhanced to provide better quality outcomes for all of us.

 

7 hours ago, JamesPa said:

I think many good plumbers and good electricians would find the implication of what you are saying, which seems to imply that 'middle aged' (your words)  plumbers and electricians are incapable of dealing with heat pumps, quite offensive.  Basically you appear, prima facie, to be writing them off and Im not sure why.

 

Really? According to whom? I haven't suggested middle aged plumbers are incapable. Perhaps too subtly I've suggested that they should be asked whether they want to or not. Gas Safe did and only about 32% I think said they intended/wanted to train in heatpumps. Locally I know quite a few in their 50s who have good established businesses who just want to retire and are currently kept from retiring because they're still so busy.

 

As it happens I have some personal direct experience here too. A few years ago while building my house, I got my quote for a heatpump. My response to the price was to half fall off my chair and complain about the price. However, I then looked into it and decided to embark on the training myself in order to design and install the system myself. So I found out what I needed to do and became Gas Safe Registered as the first step. I've followed this up with low temperature heating system design and a few other things. I happen to be in my 50s now and I've established a part time business with this recently too.

 

My view is that if I want to affect change within a system I need to know how the system works from the inside, and be on the inside.

 

This does give me a particular insight into the current training regimes and standards and I can categorically state that your assertion that existing plumbers and electricians are somehow excluded is wrong. Like I said, a friend of mine in his 60s has just got the tickets as it's just about signing up for the training and completing the tests.

 

Probably the most problematic part of getting into the industry right now is caused by dogma of existing plumbers/heating engineers as they tend to be reluctant to employ trainees doing their managed learning programme and so they can't complete their practical portfolio. So many trainees give up before starting or drop out of the training specifically for this reason.

 

When I embarked on my training I was insensed that I couldn't just go and do heatpump certification without going through Gas Safe or OFTEC training first. However, I've now realised this has provided me with invaluable experience working with a wide range of heating systems that will serve me well in the heatpump world. It wasn't what I wanted but I'm now very much better than I would have otherwise been.

 

But there is something about the training that existing and highly experienced plumbers/heating engineers will not have recieved. That is in how low temperature heatpump systems need to be approached differently. This has got to be taken into account. Therefore they will all need further training and not just be let loose on these systems.

I agree with a lot of what you say and, as I say, Im not against training or against appropriate standards (you did make an apparently negative comment about middle aged plumbers though) .  What I am against is anything which unnecessarily stifles innovation and prevents healthy competition, which appears to be the current situation because of the PD rules and (to a lesser extent) the BUS rules.  To avoid stifling innovation and promote healthy competition standards should apply, in my view, only where they are strictly necessary, mainly in the area of safety or where there is a clear public interest, and to the minimum extent necessary for consumer protection where this is not covered elsewhere, but not more.   

 

I acknowledge current plumbers and electricians don't currently have all the design skills (albeit that they do have most of the other skills required), but they can learn these or partner with those who do have the design skills if they wish to.  I also acknowledge that many wont want to (but 32% is a good start) . Currently there is little motivation because the regulation effectively excludes them from the market unless they take on the full MCS overhead, which involves a lot beyond the design/technical skills from my reading of the standards, and also constrains their designs.  That's the problem I, and others on this forum, have expressed.

 

 

30 minutes ago, SimonD said:

The MCS is not the whole world here. Do your research in the industry and you'll find increasing murmurings about the use of hybrid heatpumps as a transitional step. In particular how it would approximately halve the installation costs, possibly more, but provide a significant proportion of the benefits without the extent of disruption of full blown heatpumps. To me it makes sense as it is more in line with the 80/20 rule which often has dramatic impact, sometimes better than a reach for 100%

 

With these, the manufacturers could easily circumvent the MCS by providing warranties directly and with manufacturer support you're likely to see the relevant changes to PD too.

 

There are also proposals to provide mini heatpumps that can be added to existing gas/oil boilers so reducing the need to throw them away while they're still working.

 

I know you're keen to ask for specifics about how to install 1.4m heatpumps a year in the next few years, but the answer, like all answers to systemic change is a highly complex one. It's neither simple, nor is it cheap, and nor is it to do with protectionism.

Well if change is on its way, MCS is not the whole world  and the market is going to be liberalised then thats all good.  Unless PD rules change though, manufacturers warranties don't solve the problem, so to me that's fundamental.  Gas and oli boilers can be installed without planning consent and the permitted development rules for them (which concern the flues only) do not delve deeply into the technical issues, why should they for ASHPs?

 

Because of your background (which you outlined above) I am quite prepared to believe that you personally would innovate within the MCS rules, bend them, interpret them with invention etc to do a good job, so it may well be that your personal perception is that the PD rules and the strictures associated with MCS is not stifling innovation and competition.  But that's not the current norm, at least around where I live, and others on the forum evidently agree.  

Edited April 30, 2023 by JamesPa

[SteamyTea]

Just a quick reality check on CO_2e emissions.

 

Since 2020 the UKs emissions have hardly ever gone above 300g/kWh.

[RichardL]

7 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Gas and oli boilers can be installed without planning consent and the permitted development rules for them (which concern the flues only) do not delve deeply into the technical issues, why should they for ASHPs?

THIS
ASHP (My experience so far) are head/shoulders quieter than the small rocket engine sound that is my oil boiler.

1.5m2 green box blasting away on the wall (oil) - vs quiet fan whirring away if you stand next to it (ASHP).

iMHO PD should specify location, if visibility is an issue, and noise levels - taking into account they just need to be quieter than gas/oil.

Note taken from waaay up the thread re sometimes front of house is a better location than back for sound - You'd need some constructive thinking to come up with the right sort of rules for typical street types.

[TonyT]

Maybe there should just be a qualification similar to working on gas boilers, fire etc and a card like gas safe or the Sjib/jib card electricians have, I recently sat the EV installation course, doesn’t make me an expert but covered the safety requirements to do a good design… and take away MCS registration 

[SimonD]

16 hours ago, JohnMo said:

Really they should outlaw S and Y plan, and make hot water priory or X plan mandatory for all new gas installs.  They should also make low temp emmiters run on weather compensation and 3m2 cylinder coils mandatory, so all gas installs are HP ready, but make gas boilers condense in all conditions, to give efficiency over 100%.  

 

I completely agree. Whenever the opportunity arises I sneak a normally closed 2 port motorised valve into an s-plan and do a simple re-wire. All my system boiler installs go in priority hot water. On installs I always leave the system with a return temperature below 54 degrees and tell my customers to run the heating for longer periods of time instead - in small properties with combi boilers, this can be a challenge mind you and definitely not perfect. I also only install boilers that have separate ch/dhw temp capability.

 

There does seem to be increasing awareness here where Ideal's Halo heat & system controls support PDHW, for example, which is a great thing, but they don't seem to make a deal of it.

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, RichardL said:

Note taken from waaay up the thread re sometimes front of house is a better location than back for sound - You'd need some constructive thinking to come up with the right sort of rules for typical street types.

Agreed

 

A couple of the ashp brochures show an ashp at the front of the house, albeit a very 'modern Germanic/scandi' style house.   Looks great ihmo.  It could become a status symbol proudly displayed for all to see.

[SteamyTea]

10 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

It could become a status symbol proudly displayed for all to see.

We all love a virtue signaller.

[markocosic]

18 hours ago, SimonD said:

I think that in the first instance the government needs to completely revise the grant funding arrangements and fund the training and development of system designers and installers

 

That's also happening - e.g that Heat Geek lot are the poster children for BEIS.

 

Spend £0.20 subsidising courses for installers (virtually free to attend/complete yet hard enough work to actually finish the course that you wouldn't do it as an excuse to get out of work) and bring a few hundred installers up a level.

 

Installers busy ever day of the week, making good money, and installs consistently in the sCOP 3.5-4 range.

 

The big boys (OVO, E.ON, Octopus, et al) are dead against it though. 

[markocosic]

57 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

 It could become a status symbol proudly displayed for all to see.

 

The continental Europeans don't treat Irish travellers the same way the UK does.

 

Hence you CAN park £5k outside the door and expect it to be there when you return.

 

UK...not something I'd advertise?