Very Wet weather coming.

[saveasteading]

We are hurrying to complete the weatherproof box, including guttering, before the rains come. The drainage needs prioritising too as we are creating a surge of water off the new roof that used to be spread around.

The ground turns to battlefield conditions October to March in a normal autumn so this is a worry.

El nino likely to cause wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn

[Oz07]

I'd take it with a grain of salt. By all means do what you need to get the site sorted before it gets too bad but don't panic. 

[saveasteading]

16 minutes ago, Oz07 said:

Take it with a grain of salt

Of course. But last year a forklift or excavator  made 400mm indents through turf, so that will happen again, or worse.

 

The weather prediction from the Pacific to here is very approximate of course. 

 

But for those of us with any weather dependent processes, it's worth pushing now.

[jack]

I feel bad for desparately hoping for some proper rain in the South East. It's been painfully dry for months, and the couple of small recent downpours have not been sufficient to convince the mushrooms to pop up yet.

I did find my first mushrooms of the year today though - oysters on fallen scots pine.

[saveasteading]

1 hour ago, jack said:

some proper rain in the South East. 

 If you have influence in such matters, could our small patch have a gap in the clouds please?

Actually last week there was a rainstorm which covered 1mile2 at most, so I just want the opposite of that please.

[Spinny]

Meanwhile elsewhere...

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/09/10/there-have-been-no-hurricanes-in-the-atlantic-yet-making-2026-the-quietest-since-satellite-tracking-began-in-1966/

[saveasteading]

It's the absence of Atlantic hurricanes that is worrying them. Something very different is happening,  so weather models aren't to be relied on...

 And what else  might happen next...  will it all come in some super storms?

Or benign.. we will find out.

[Oz07]

I also want dry autumn. I want to get a backhoe in to clear our site after a planning decision. Scheduled October atm

[saveasteading]

The administrators will arrange it.

[saveasteading]

A like from @Nickfromwales so that's a deal then.

[Iceverge]

After feeding the AI a little and trying to decipher the nonsense I've concluded that the risk presented by rain, wind and cold are lightly to be about 6% worse than normal. Something like 1997/98 for where i live. 

 

Making long range weather forecasts from climate changes is like predicting the exact path of the ball for 90mins from just studying the team sheets before kickoff.

 

Most lightly a waste of time.  

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

21 minutes ago, Iceverge said:

Making long range weather forecasts from climate changes

Should add in geospatial to that.

 

What we do know is that global temperatures are higher than the long term average, so more energy in the system.

We also know that global absolute humidity is higher than long term averages, so more water available.

We also know that the key parts of the Pacific are higher than long term averages, so a larger unbalanced heat source.

We also know that Arctic Polar Ice is lower than normal, so a smaller heat sink.

 

[Bancroft]

On 11/09/2026 at 12:57, saveasteading said:

We are hurrying to complete the weatherproof box, including guttering, before the rains come. The drainage needs prioritising too as we are creating a surge of water off the new roof that used to be spread around.

The ground turns to battlefield conditions October to March in a normal autumn so this is a worry.

...which is why I've been on the back of our builder to get the roof on.

 

But, here we are, two months later, with no roof...🤬🤬🤬

[Iceverge]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Should add in geospatial to that.

 

You've lost me.....

 

[Onoff]

Some decent rain will swell my swedes.

[Nickfromwales]

1 hour ago, Onoff said:

Some decent rain will swell my swedes.

🤐🤣

[SteamyTea]

4 hours ago, Iceverge said:

You've lost me

Global mean temperatures are currently higher than normal/expected, but some places will be colder than expected, and others hotter.  Those variances will drive local weather.