Scrap your new car now. Well not really.

[SteamyTea]

Environment

It’s good for the planet to scrap a new petrol car and buy electric

Carbon savings from driving EVs are so large that it makes sense to scrap a working petrol car to make the switch

Madeleine Cuff6 August 2026, updated 7 August 2026

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNi8wOC9TRUlfMzA3NDU2MzcxLmpwZw__.jpg

Electric cars are far better for the climate than traditional petrol vehicles

JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

In a straight choice between a new petrol car and a new electric car, on climate grounds the electric car wins easily.

But what if your existing petrol car is still working fine – or is even only a year or two old? Contrary to popular belief, the overall climate impact is lower if a new petrol car is scrapped in favour of an electric vehicle (EV), new research reveals.

Studies show that although EVs produce more carbon emissions when they are manufactured, they are responsible for much lower emissions when they are being driven compared with a petrol or diesel car. Overall, the whole-life emissions for an electric car are almost 90 per cent lower than for combustion engine vehicles.

How I pay almost nothing to power my house and electric car

Elliott Campbell at the University of California, Santa Cruz and Roland Geyer at UC Santa Barbara wanted to find out whether drivers should wait until their current combustion engine car is ready for the scrapheap before moving to electric.

Using US data, they analysed the emissions impact of scrapping a fossil fuel car and replacing it with an EV at different points, from scrapping a car that is just a year or two old to one at the end of its life. Their modelling accounts for the emissions associated with producing and running a new electric car, and other factors including variability in the grid electricity mix, vehicle efficiency, manufacturing emissions and mileage.

“We found that in the vast majority of cases, and even for a brand new gas vehicle, you would be far better off scrapping the gas vehicle and switching to electric,” says Campbell. “It takes more energy to build an electric vehicle, but the savings from driving the vehicle swamp all the upfront costs.”

Campbell stresses he doesn’t expect people to immediately scrap their brand new cars. Instead, the study aims to show that there is zero environmental benefit in keeping a fossil fuel car on the road until the end of its life.

The findings hold true for almost any scenario, except where an electricity grid is very reliant on coal power, or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than about 7000 km per year.

“The idea here is just to simply show what a huge advantage electric vehicles offer, so that when the opportunity to make the transition [is] something that people are ready and excited to do, by all means go for it,” says Campbell. “There’s no environmental concern to hold you back.”

Kenneth Gillingham at the Yale University says the paper takes a “clever angle”. “I think what they’re talking about makes perfect sense. I’ve thought about this before [but] I’ve never thought to write a science paper on it, and I’m impressed.”

 

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNS8wMS8yMzE1NDYyMS9TRUlfMjM3MDY1NDg1LmpwZz93PTkwMCZoPTYwMCZjcm9wPTE_.jpg

Electric cars now last as long as petrol and diesel counterparts

Records from UK vehicle safety tests show that the average lifespan of an electric vehicle is 18 years, and the reliability is still improving considerably from year to year

 

But Gregory Keoleian at the University of Michigan points out that the study is considering an “extreme case”. “It’s unlikely somebody’s going to purchase a combustion engine vehicle and retire it after a year,” he says.

Instead, those cars will likely hit the second-hand market, which could have knock-on economic and behavioural impacts, such as lowering the price of second-hand cars so dramatically that it convinces more people to switch from public transport to car use. More research is needed to model those potential impacts, says Campbell.

But the study’s authors say their findings lend support to the idea of subsidised scrappage schemes, to encourage people to scrap older fossil-fuel cars in favour of electric vehicles. Such policies could accelerate the EV transition in the US and help to cut transportation emissions, which are now the single largest source of carbon emissions in the country.

Journal Reference:

 

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.adv5441

 

Environment

It’s good for the planet to scrap a new petrol car and buy electric

Carbon savings from driving EVs are so large that it makes sense to scrap a working petrol car to make the switch

Madeleine Cuff6 August 2026, updated 7 August 2026

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNi8wOC9TRUlfMzA3NDU2MzcxLmpwZw__.jpg

Electric cars are far better for the climate than traditional petrol vehicles

JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

In a straight choice between a new petrol car and a new electric car, on climate grounds the electric car wins easily.

But what if your existing petrol car is still working fine – or is even only a year or two old? Contrary to popular belief, the overall climate impact is lower if a new petrol car is scrapped in favour of an electric vehicle (EV), new research reveals.

Studies show that although EVs produce more carbon emissions when they are manufactured, they are responsible for much lower emissions when they are being driven compared with a petrol or diesel car. Overall, the whole-life emissions for an electric car are almost 90 per cent lower than for combustion engine vehicles.

Read more

 

How I pay almost nothing to power my house and electric car

Elliott Campbell at the University of California, Santa Cruz and Roland Geyer at UC Santa Barbara wanted to find out whether drivers should wait until their current combustion engine car is ready for the scrapheap before moving to electric.

Using US data, they analysed the emissions impact of scrapping a fossil fuel car and replacing it with an EV at different points, from scrapping a car that is just a year or two old to one at the end of its life. Their modelling accounts for the emissions associated with producing and running a new electric car, and other factors including variability in the grid electricity mix, vehicle efficiency, manufacturing emissions and mileage.

“We found that in the vast majority of cases, and even for a brand new gas vehicle, you would be far better off scrapping the gas vehicle and switching to electric,” says Campbell. “It takes more energy to build an electric vehicle, but the savings from driving the vehicle swamp all the upfront costs.”

Campbell stresses he doesn’t expect people to immediately scrap their brand new cars. Instead, the study aims to show that there is zero environmental benefit in keeping a fossil fuel car on the road until the end of its life.

The findings hold true for almost any scenario, except where an electricity grid is very reliant on coal power, or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than about 7000 km per year.

“The idea here is just to simply show what a huge advantage electric vehicles offer, so that when the opportunity to make the transition [is] something that people are ready and excited to do, by all means go for it,” says Campbell. “There’s no environmental concern to hold you back.”

Kenneth Gillingham at the Yale University says the paper takes a “clever angle”. “I think what they’re talking about makes perfect sense. I’ve thought about this before [but] I’ve never thought to write a science paper on it, and I’m impressed.”

 

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNS8wMS8yMzE1NDYyMS9TRUlfMjM3MDY1NDg1LmpwZz93PTkwMCZoPTYwMCZjcm9wPTE_.jpg

Electric cars now last as long as petrol and diesel counterparts

Records from UK vehicle safety tests show that the average lifespan of an electric vehicle is 18 years, and the reliability is still improving considerably from year to year

 

But Gregory Keoleian at the University of Michigan points out that the study is considering an “extreme case”. “It’s unlikely somebody’s going to purchase a combustion engine vehicle and retire it after a year,” he says.

Instead, those cars will likely hit the second-hand market, which could have knock-on economic and behavioural impacts, such as lowering the price of second-hand cars so dramatically that it convinces more people to switch from public transport to car use. More research is needed to model those potential impacts, says Campbell.

But the study’s authors say their findings lend support to the idea of subsidised scrappage schemes, to encourage people to scrap older fossil-fuel cars in favour of electric vehicles. Such policies could accelerate the EV transition in the US and help to cut transportation emissions, which are now the single largest source of carbon emissions in the country.

Journal Reference:

 

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.adv5441

 

 

[Nickfromwales]

Who pays for the asset being scrapped? 
 

More tomfoolery……

[SteamyTea]

32 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

More tomfoolery

Explain that a bit more in the context of the article.

[saveasteading]

Scrap old cars (and American ones.) Give them the 2 year old ones.  Nwky carless person gets an electric.  Some paperwork involved there clearly.

 

Might be easier to give the electric car to the old banger owners instead.

[JohnMo]

More nonsense. The petrol car is made how does scrapping it make any sense. Typical CO2 emissions for a petrol car are 230g per mile, so 7000km is 1000 kg.

 

It takes 5 to 10 tonnes to produce an electric car, so already the electric car needs to exist 5 to 10 years to get pay back compared to an existing petrol car.  But that doesn't include grid CO2 to charge vehicle etc.which would extend CO2 payback also

 

Typical car average life before being scrapped is 17 years, except Ford's and Vauxhall which is sooner. So may make sense to scrap petrols at between around 10 years, but not a new car or 2 year old one. But scrap all diesels cars tomorrow would be my view.

 

But would need to be a voluntary scrappage system to encourage participation.

[sgt_woulds]

You are not thinking holistically.

 

The CO2 cost for burning fuel in an ICE car also needs to take into account the CO2 cost of extracting, manufacturing, and shipping the fuel to petrol station, the emmissions cost of spillages, emmissions during filling up the car, etc. Add to that the low efficiency of the engine in using the fuel (60% is wasted heat and friction) and the fun fact that you can only burn it once. 

 

Think well-to-wheel, not vehicle mpg and you will start to see the logic of studies like this.

 

Even when burning FF, electricity generation efficiency and minimal transmission losses make it far more efficient.  The most profligate EV (Ferrari, Maserati, ancient Enfield Electric) will still use the 'fuel' with +80% efficiency of conversion.  And, unlike ICE, you get some of the expended energy back when you brake or go downhill.

 

Add in that the valuable minerals in car batteries and drive systems will be recycled (+99.6% recyclability of materials, plus reusing Lithium from existing batteries saves more energy as it is already purified).  I heard an expert from a mining company say that within 20 years, most battery and magnet materials used in vehicles in the future will come from the circular economy rather than mining extraction.  The amount of CO2 used in the manufacture of an EV will be less than that to create an ICE vehicle within the next decade.

 

Unfortunately none of this helps me.  I drive less than 2500 miles a year and my diesel car has such low running costs in the grand scheme of things (insurance and TAX would both be higher on an EV) and the upfront cost of buying a second hand EV is too great.  The second hand value of my car is probably less than I pay for insurance and fuel each year!

 

I would dearly love to have an EV, but will only be affordable if I'm given a freebie, or a government grant/scrappage scheme that allows me to buy a very used EV

 

 

 

 

 

[joth]

On 10/08/2026 at 08:40, SteamyTea said:

The findings hold true for almost any scenario, except where an electricity grid is very reliant on coal power, or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than about 7000 km per year.

 

This is the key bit: scrap your car and move to EV if you drive more than ~4500 miles per year.

If you have very low annual mileage, like @sgt_woulds, it makes no sense.

If you have extremely high mileage, then of course moving to a lower cost-per-mile vehicle will pay off very quickly (for both financial and environmental cost)

 

We drive about 5000-6000 miles most years; I've put off getting an EV thus far because of this low mileage but as it's now 10 years old, and there's now a better range of equivalent EV available, so I should be picking up an ID.7 Tour tomorrow. Weirdly the insurance quote is actually less than my current Skoda - perhaps because this will be a company owned car (although my guess would have been that would only add to the premium). /shrug

 

[JohnMo]

1 hour ago, joth said:

Weirdly the insurance quote is actually less than my current Skoda

Insurance is stupid, our small ford van cost twice as much to insure as our 530hp Alfa Romeo. Both do about 6000 mile between them a year.

[sgt_woulds]

 

 

2 hours ago, joth said:

 

If you have very low annual mileage, like @sgt_woulds, it makes no sense.

 

 

Makes no sense other than for health of passangers / public.  I wish I had a big enough wallet to make the change on that basis.  

 

The numbers of petrol stations in the UK have started to reduce.  I guess there will be a tipping point when 'range anxiety' forces ICE drivers into electric... 🤣

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, sgt_woulds said:

The numbers of petrol stations in the UK have started to reduce

Down here, there is only 1 24/7 gas station.

Most of the rest close at 8PM during the winter.

 

Was not that long ago (in my mind) that the country was brought to a virtual standstill when the fuel depots where blockaded (Year 2000).

Was talking to a workmate who was talking about getting a hybrid (a shit 48V one).  I asked why not a full BEV.  Her reply "I am going to be driving to Camborne 4 days a week".

So a total of 120 miles and she can use a Granny lead at home for the 10 kWh a day it will use.

[sgt_woulds]

Maybe, like me, her only affordable full EV option would be a very used Nissan Leaf or early small bettery (and extreemly unreliable) Zoe. 

Then her range anxiety makes sense.

 

I have a real dilema in that I desperately need a larger vehicle - our Kia ceed with a four bike roof rack barely copes - but I don't want to waste money on an ICE MPV or window van. 

 

The only EV that would suite our lifestyle (at least, one that I can ever hope to afford one day), is the Nissan ENV-200 mpv.  On the rare occassions they come up for sale, they are £5000+, and also cost lot more in TAX and insurance.  That's just imposssible to justify for a vehicle where battery degredation is a real worry.

 

One of the rare EV cases where Jezza Clarson's 'you'll throw the battery away in 3 years' might come true.

 

 

[-rick-]

6 minutes ago, sgt_woulds said:

also cost lot more in TAX and insurance. 

insurance sure, but tax? I know EVs have a new per mile tax, but it’s tiny compared to the tax you pay per mile in an ICE car (fuel duty) so feel that’s irrelevant. What tax do you mean?

[Nestor]

At the moment a flat rate of £200 a year for EVs under £50K.

If over £50K you pay additional £440 per year from 2nd to 6th year of ownership.

An EV registered before 2017  pays £20 per year.

From April 2028 the Pay per mile tax at 3p per mile, this is additional to the flat rate tax.

So for 8K miles a year the cost will be £200 + £240 = £440. 15K miles per year is £650. (For sub £50K vehicles).

 

1 hour ago, -rick- said:

insurance sure, but tax? I know EVs have a new per mile tax, but it’s tiny compared to the tax you pay per mile in an ICE car (fuel duty) so feel that’s irrelevant. What tax do you mean?

 

Edited Wednesday at 13:17 by Nestor

[JohnMo]

1 hour ago, Nestor said:

So for 8K miles a year the cost will be £200 + £240 = £440

Or for £50k + add additional £440, so £880. I will my IC car for now then.

[Mattg4321]

Diesels should be replaced by EV eventually. Can’t beat the sound and experience of a supercharged v8 though 

[SteamyTea]

6 minutes ago, Mattg4321 said:

Can’t beat the sound and experience of a supercharged v8 though 

Yes you can

 

[scottishjohn]

On 11/08/2026 at 13:05, sgt_woulds said:

The numbers of petrol stations in the UK have started to reduce

the reason for that is simply an economic one

Iran petrol stations for 40 years before i retired and the cost of tank replacement and new pumps is too expensive for alot of the owners 

80k+ for a new tank 

10k for each new pump 

 

 

and with a profit margin of less than 3%  

 

£160per litre and dealer gets 5-7p top line before any costs --

  

it comes to a point where it is economically unviable to up grade a petrol station 

 

 i made all the profit from the shop ==not selling petrol --so unless you have a good shop through put --then selling fuel is a waste of time 

 

 and every time the fuel price goes up you have to find more money to fill the tanks 

 

when i started a load of petrol as about 2k  now it is 60k-- and you will only get that dead money back when you close up and sell last tank load 

 

so unless you have a through put of over 6m litres a year  fuel sales are a waste of time 

 

 there has never been any credit for fuel sales -- pay by bank draft same day or at best with 7 days 

 

 you will wait for 2 weeks  at least to get your money from the credit card companies and they take half your profit with card charges 

 

  so to operate a 6m litre site you will need to have money for 160000 litres  -what you have in tanks -- your payment for last load and money coming from credit card companies

 

 you will need at least £300000k  plus your shop stock value -- to operate  

 and that not even allowing any costs for replacement of equipment or staff etc .etc

 and the loss by evaporation from your tanks -- 1-2%-- which you have paid fuel duty +vat on

 

so would I ever consider going back into fuel sales --no way --

 

the profit fuel companies allow you has always been pence per litre immaterial of price 

 

which is why you see very few  if any  company owned  sites

  

all are dealers --they sold them off years ago  to mugs to run 

 

 that is also why you will not any new petrol stations being built--numbers don,t add up 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 10:10 by scottishjohn

[Mattg4321]

9 hours ago, scottishjohn said:

the reason for that is simply an economic one

Iran petrol stations for 40 years before i retired and the cost of tank replacement and new pumps is too expensive for alot of the owners 

80k+ for a new tank 

10k for each new pump 

 

 

and with a profit margin of less than 3%  

 

£160per litre and dealer gets 5-7p top line before any costs --

  

it comes to a point where it is economically unviable to up grade a petrol station 

 

 i made all the profit from the shop ==not selling petrol --so unless you have a good shop through put --then selling fuel is a waste of time 

 

 and every time the fuel price goes up you have to find more money to fill the tanks 

 

when i started a load of petrol as about 2k  now it is 60k-- and you will only get that dead money back when you close up and sell last tank load 

 

so unless you have a through put of over 6m litres a year  fuel sales are a waste of time 

 

 there has never been any credit for fuel sales -- pay by bank draft same day or at best with 7 days 

 

 you will wait for 2 weeks  at least to get your money from the credit card companies and they take half your profit with card charges 

 

  so to operate a 6m litre site you will need to have money for 160000 litres  -what you have in tanks -- your payment for last load and money coming from credit card companies

 

 you will need at least £300000k  plus your shop stock value -- to operate  

 and that not even allowing any costs for replacement of equipment or staff etc .etc

 and the loss by evaporation from your tanks -- 1-2%-- which you have paid fuel duty +vat on

 

so would I ever consider going back into fuel sales --no way --

 

the profit fuel companies allow you has always been pence per litre immaterial of price 

 

which is why you see very few  if any  company owned  sites

  

all are dealers --they sold them off years ago  to mugs to run 

 

 that is also why you will not any new petrol stations being built--numbers don,t add up 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting read, thanks. Wonder if you can answer me this…

 

Not far from me there are 2 fuel stations about 100m apart, both owned by MFG. One was BP and the other Shell for many years. They both closed for a refurb about a year or so ago at the same time. When they reopened, the BP had become Shell and the Shell had become ESSO!

 

I’m sure there must be a reason, would love to know what. Why not just swap the BP to ESSO and leave the Shell as is!

[saveasteading]

@scottishjohn  when a petrol station is charging 6 to 8p/litre more than one not far away is this always location and convenience?

Because as you say , 3p/l is not much return, but suddenly to become 10p is a huge difference.

 

In Spain there is even greater variance.  It is nearly always linked to attended service or self serve  (8 to 10c/l)  .

The 3rd option is total automation with no shop which is hopeless when there is any problem of course. These can be cheaper (no labour) or dearer  (remote or 24/7).

[joth]

A few other factors come to mind that will be impacting quantity of petrol stations about. it's all a supply and demand thing, init.

• Increase in out of town supermarkets selling petrol as a loss-leader to get feet into the store
• Increased efficiency of vehicles meaning less petrol used per mile so fewer trips to the gas station needed
• Perhaps?? - people are commuting further for work so more likely to pass a cheaper out of town station, not just looking for the most convenient local option.
• Since the 1990s diesel was gradually displacing Petrol, not sure what affect that might have, however combined sales peaked in 2016 and have been decreasing since then so decreasing overall demand

...

 

I collected my EV and promptly registered on a pair of public charging apps to calm the immediate range anxiety for the drive home (I registered with VW's own app, and the Octopus one).  It is interesting to see how the marketing landscape is so different compare to petrol, being almost all online and app based rather than giant billboards visible from the motorway, for what is essentially the same use case.

[sgt_woulds]

 

1 hour ago, joth said:

almost all online and app based 

 

Another reason not to go EV!  

 

I prefer to use cash wherever possible, as it doesn't crash, conduct random updates, or run out of battery at the worst possible time.  And it is much easier to keep an eye on spending.

 

 

[SteamyTea]

7 minutes ago, sgt_woulds said:

I prefer to use cash wherever possible, as it doesn't crash

It does.

Try using a £50 note down here, not many places will take them.

Cash handling is also expensive, a charge that gets passed onto the end consumer.

I hate using cash at work, card payments are so much easier.

 

There is no technical reason that EV charging points cannot take the major cards, self serve checkouts at super markets manage it.

 

 

[Roger440]

20 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

 

 

There is no technical reason that EV charging points cannot take the major cards, self serve checkouts at super markets manage it.

 

 

No "technical" reason. But some dont.

[Roger440]

On 11/08/2026 at 13:05, sgt_woulds said:

 

The numbers of petrol stations in the UK have started to reduce.  I guess there will be a tipping point when 'range anxiety' forces ICE drivers into electric... 🤣

I have wondered about this for a while. Clearly as the EV fleet grows, and the ICE fleet diminishes, total petrol(and diesel) sales will diminish.

 

There will come a point, where its no longer economic to continue selling petrol. Clearly this is going to hit more rural areas first as volumes are lower. Which is a problem as ICE use is invariably higher.

 

Regardless, there will come a point where fuel becomes hard to find, whilst a sizeable chunk of the vehicles on the road are still ICE. There seems to be no thought or plan as to how to manage that. I cant imagine it will end well though.

 

Its also likely within 10 years based on renewal rates, the EV mandate etc. Will definitely be a problem for me, with no obvious answers.

 

[Roger440]

40 minutes ago, sgt_woulds said:

 

 

Another reason not to go EV!  

 

I prefer to use cash wherever possible, as it doesn't crash, conduct random updates, or run out of battery at the worst possible time.  And it is much easier to keep an eye on spending.

 

 

 

I also cant be in a position where travelling is reliant on my ability to use a smart phone. Which is clearly smarter than me.