Clean Heat Market Mechanism to incentivise heat pumps

[SteamyTea]

40 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Annual Gas usage 12,000kwh 

Annual elec Usage 4,000kwh

That would imply about 10 MWh/year.

If there are 30m homes, then 300 TWh of electricity a year.

2021 production was 310 TWh.

So some phasing in of the introduction needs to be done.

 

It may be better to drop all grants and subsidies for HPs and slowly, over the next decade, increase taxation on natural gas.

If we put a 10% taxation on domestic natural gas, and started for 2 year ago prices (3p /kWh), it would take until 2046 to get parity between gas and electric prices, so the tax may need to be higher.

Starting at today's prices, then it would be 2037 before price parity (with domestic electricity at 30p/kWh).

 

So 14/15 years away.

That should be enough time (political will) to meet the technical challenges.  No new technology needs to be implemented, just more of the same.

 

If we installed 1 kW_p of PV on 25% of homes, then that would be 7.5 GW_p of extra installed capacity.  That is about half of what we have installed, in total, to date, so should be achievable (could probably easily double that).

That would generate an extra 7.5 TWh/year (but not when we want it most).

But we would have 22 GW_p of reliable and predictable solar (weather forecasts are very reliable over a 3 day period).

22 GW_p would generate, in December, about 760 GWh.

If all that solar is put though a heat pump with a CoP of 2.2, then that is close to 1,700 GWh of thermal energy. so about 55 kWh of thermal energy for each of the 30 million homes in the country. 1.8 kWh/day does not sound much (two short showers worth).  It is about 10% of what is needed to have all homes heated by renewables (in December).

 

Just need to do that for the next decade.

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

53 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Unfortunately climate change has become enmeshed in the wider "culture war".

You are not alone.

 

How 2023 saw the UK going backwards on climate issues

The past 12 months featured constant alarming news on the environment coupled to a political class still not heeding the warnings from scientists. But there have been highs amid the lows, says Graham Lawton

By Graham Lawton

13 December 2023

 

 

 

Youth from Fridays for Future organization stage a protest calling to cease fires and end fossil fuels

Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto/Getty

 

I WILL remember 2023 as another year of sadness and anger, and not just because of my personal loss. Constant alarming news on the environment coupled to a political class still largely unable or unwilling to heed the warnings from scientists frequently make my job a gloomy place.

This is especially so in the UK, where our shopping trolley of a government has veered alarmingly to the right on a lot of what ex-prime minister David Cameron – recently resurrected as foreign secretary – once called “green crap”. Pledges to max out North Sea oil and gas; motorist-friendly policies; row-backs on net zero; crackdowns on environmental protesters. Those in power obviously think these are vote winners, showing a depressing eagerness to seek short-term gains by dismissing or denying long-term problems. One of my big hopes for 2024 is that they are proved wrong at the ballot box.

Fighting back against the green crap is all part of the war on woke, another thing that has made me despair this year. Somehow, attempts to make the world a fairer place for everyone and a greener one for nature have been weaponised by those for whom the status quo is just fine.

I am a white, middle-aged, home-owning, heterosexual, able-bodied male (he/him), so the war on woke rarely touches my life directly. But I’m also a cyclist and a tofu muncher and I live in north London, so anti-woke politicians really wind me up. But that is what they are trying to do, so I will try to be zen about it.

I have learned, though, how casual, careless use of language can offend. I am also a SOBS – a survivor of bereavement by suicide. There is a trigger phrase in that community: “committed suicide”. This is a throwback to the time when suicide was a crime. It isn’t any more, but the phrase has stubbornly stuck. When I hear people say my wife committed suicide, I have to bite my tongue and then gently point out that many SOBS find it offensive. Completed, please. Or just plain English: she killed herself.

Some people will probably regard this as “wokeness” and yet another example of how “you can’t say anything these days”. But I hope it demonstrates that being anti-woke can be unnecessarily hurtful. It doesn’t cost anything to be sensitive to others’ feelings. It is a small thing. But it gives me a taste of what LGBTQ+ people, those with disabilities, ethnic minorities, environmental protesters and other marginalised groups must feel when their hard won gains or lifestyles are smeared as “wokeness”.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m privileged to do the job I do and I will keep on doing it. And there have been highs among the lows. I travelled a lot this year, though narrowly avoided a few hairy situations. I was in Morocco just before the earthquake, Israel just before the Hamas attack and Iceland just before the volcano. I recently spent a few days in Dorset. My advice: avoid this English county, something bad is going to happen there.

On top of that, I think our rivers campaign helped move the issue up the agenda. Our Rewilding Weekender was great, not least because I got to meet so many of our wonderful readers. Ditto New Scientist Live. And I landed a prestigious journalism award.

I write this as COP28 begins in Dubai. Hopes aren’t high, but they spring eternal. There is still time to avert a triple catastrophe of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution. Just don’t get me started on the US presidential election.

[Beelbeebub]

8 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

That would imply about 10 MWh/year.

If there are 30m homes, then 300 TWh of electricity a year.

2021 production was 310 TWh.

So some phasing in of the introduction needs to be done.

 

It may be better to drop all grants and subsidies for HPs and slowly, over the next decade, increase taxation on natural gas.

If we put a 10% taxation on domestic natural gas, and started for 2 year ago prices (3p /kWh), it would take until 2046 to get parity between gas and electric prices, so the tax may need to be higher.

Starting at today's prices, then it would be 2037 before price parity (with domestic electricity at 30p/kWh).

 

So 14/15 years away.

That should be enough time (political will) to meet the technical challenges.  No new technology needs to be implemented, just more of the same.

 

If we installed 1 kW_p of PV on 25% of homes, then that would be 7.5 GW_p of extra installed capacity.  That is about half of what we have installed, in total, to date, so should be achievable (could probably easily double that).

That would generate an extra 7.5 TWh/year (but not when we want it most).

But we would have 22 GW_p of reliable and predictable solar (weather forecasts are very reliable over a 3 day period).

22 GW_p would generate, in December, about 760 GWh.

If all that solar is put though a heat pump with a CoP of 2.2, then that is close to 1,700 GWh of thermal energy. so about 55 kWh of thermal energy for each of the 30 million homes in the country. 1.8 kWh/day does not sound much (two short showers worth).  It is about 10% of what is needed to have all homes heated by renewables (in December).

 

Just need to do that for the next decade.

 

 

 

Yes, we would need to ramp up electricity production.  Ideally by installing more renewables plus Some battery storage. However, some will inevitably have to come from new CCGT plants. They are quick and cheap to build (in the context of a power plant), but the idea is they would be stopgaps.

 

Overall gas consumption (heating and electric) would still fall as a cop > 2.5 (fairly achievable) means you burn less gas per kWh delivered in the home than a combi boiler.

 

And at the end of the day it's overall gas consumption that matters not exactly were we burn it.

[PhilT]

2 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

 

Gas 7pkwh

Elec 28pkwh

Indeed. Its a bit mad that gas price has dropped back from 30% to 25% of electricity prices despite the need to incentivise heat pumps, although all the people I know with gas and small radiators are running their boilers at or near maximum, well over the condensing temperature range and so probably not much more than 70% efficient, making gas cost 10p. With a realistically achievable SCOP of at least 3.5 it still makes heat pump running costs very favourable to gas. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by PhilT

[SimonD]

3 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

I suspect it won't be "stupid people" who will resist.

 

Unfortunately climate change has become enmeshed in the wider "culture war".

 

There are people out there who will resist heatpumps noatter how much financial sense they make because they don't like Greta Thunberg or "the woke" or the EU or something.

 

At the end of the day I don't actually care. They can pay more to subsidie the sensible.some

 

I've had a lot more conversations with customers about heatpumps and unfortunately the popular opinion is still that they're rubbish and don't work. Some even suggested that they're too new as a technology and need longer to be developed 🙄 Recently I was away for some training and the majority of heating engineers in the room spoke very disparagingly about heatpumps and were going to continue with fossil fuel coz they worked and were cheaper.

 

The stupidity is unfortunately constructed by the negative narratives abound in both the media and internet, but also partly down to some of the positive stories that say things along the lines of how great the heatpump is but this is all the stuff they had to do to get it that way. People are then rightfully worried by this.

 

For me the 1st step has got to be a government that supports the foundations of the technology, which is upgrading building fabric, which of course they don't so everyone wil be paying 3 times - once for poor building fabric, twice for the boiler levy, 3 times for the energy market economic model currently in place.

 

With wholesale energy transitions, the government has to play a major role in this beyond the ridiculous market mechanisms they're toying with. There also needs be somemore consistent communication to the national as a whole as a part of the necessary re-education.

[JohnMo]

28 minutes ago, SimonD said:

fossil fuel coz they worked and were cheaper.

Think that's the crux of the issue. Driving gas and heating oil prices up and electric down per kWh makes the market move in a different direction. People start to insulate first, then look at different technology second.

 

 

[Iceverge]

2 hours ago, SimonD said:

the government has to play a major role in this beyond the ridiculous market mechanisms they're toying with

 

They're micromanaging whilst being demonstrably ignorant. 

 

Personally I think about 99% of the housing stock should be given a JCB makeover. Many members on here have gone really down the rabbit hole of upgrading their existing houses. Really impassioned renovations taking absolute care in all the details yet most are still far short of an MBC new build or similar. 

 

Asking the average punter to insulate their way to nett zero is unlightly to happen. 

 

Planning reform is badly needed.

 

How about you can knock and rebuild your house so long as it fits in the same dimensional box. Is visually deemed acceptable to the planners ( same day service of course) and must be completed to passivhaus plus standards. Works must be completed with 12 months of starting. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Roger440]

4 hours ago, Iceverge said:

 

They're micromanaging whilst being demonstrably ignorant. 

 

Personally I think about 99% of the housing stock should be given a JCB makeover. Many members on here have gone really down the rabbit hole of upgrading their existing houses. Really impassioned renovations taking absolute care in all the details yet most are still far short of an MBC new build or similar. 

 

Asking the average punter to insulate their way to nett zero is unlightly to happen. 

 

Planning reform is badly needed.

 

How about you can knock and rebuild your house so long as it fits in the same dimensional box. Is visually deemed acceptable to the planners ( same day service of course) and must be completed to passivhaus plus standards. Works must be completed with 12 months of starting. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brilliant. Where do i sign up. Oh wait? I just need a spare £200k.

 

Seems to be a major flaw in that plan...................................

 

Edit to add, looks like ill be going down that rabbit hole. For one simple reason, much as i would love to build a new house, and explored just about every possibility, the reality is, it wasnt affordable. Wasnt then, isnt now, isnt going to be either.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Roger440

[Roger440]

6 hours ago, SimonD said:

 

I've had a lot more conversations with customers about heatpumps and unfortunately the popular opinion is still that they're rubbish and don't work. Some even suggested that they're too new as a technology and need longer to be developed 🙄 Recently I was away for some training and the majority of heating engineers in the room spoke very disparagingly about heatpumps and were going to continue with fossil fuel coz they worked and were cheaper.

 

The stupidity is unfortunately constructed by the negative narratives abound in both the media and internet, but also partly down to some of the positive stories that say things along the lines of how great the heatpump is but this is all the stuff they had to do to get it that way. People are then rightfully worried by this.

 

For me the 1st step has got to be a government that supports the foundations of the technology, which is upgrading building fabric, which of course they don't so everyone wil be paying 3 times - once for poor building fabric, twice for the boiler levy, 3 times for the energy market economic model currently in place.

 

With wholesale energy transitions, the government has to play a major role in this beyond the ridiculous market mechanisms they're toying with. There also needs be somemore consistent communication to the national as a whole as a part of the necessary re-education.

 

Forget the stupidity, narratives, education and all that other stuff.

 

What you need is systems being installed, by compentent people that work, and can be operated with no more fuss than a conventional system. At scale. 

 

Not going to happen. Wont happen, Cant happen.

 

 

 

[Roger440]

10 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

Quick estimate, ignoring standing charges etc.

Assume

Gas 7pkwh

Elec 28pkwh

 

So break even SCoP is about 4. Fairly hard to achieve.

Annual Gas usage 12,000kwh 

Annual elec Usage 4,000kwh

 

Annual Gas cost £840

Annual elec cost £1,120

Total £1,960

Green tax on gas is 5% ie £168

Green tax on elec is 20% ie £224

 

If we swap the elec taxes to gas

Gas £1,064

Elec £896

 

Unit cost is now 9pkwh for gas and 22pkwh (rounded in favour of elec). 

 

Now the break even SCoP is now 2.4, much easier to achieve. Most properties could achieve that with a very mild upgrade to emitters.

 

 

 

 

So, you have arrived at a position where its cheaper to run. Thats good.

 

You seem to have forgotton about the installation cost. And disruption. Thats before we think about insulation.

 

Thats going to be an awfully long payback period. I think its fair to say, the demographic on here, can and do take long term view and will invest in "stuff" that will benefit over the long term. For the vast majority surviving month to month, how do you envisage that will work? Frankly, doesnt matter if the payback is 5 years, or even 3 years, its not afforable when you have a functioning heating system already.

 

[JohnMo]

Think the stepping stone is really hybrid heat pumps. Almost nothing to do to heating system, combi boiler and 4kW heat pump, no cylinder to find a home for, high flow temps, 80 to 85% of the heating from the heat pump.

 

The above plus more sensible energy pricing.

 

Anything else really is wishful thinking.

[Beelbeebub]

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

 

Forget the stupidity, narratives, education and all that other stuff.

 

What you need is systems being installed, by compentent people that work, and can be operated with no more fuss than a conventional system. At scale. 

 

Not going to happen. Wont happen, Cant happen.

 

 

 

You forget how complex and intricate gas boilers are. There's a huge amount of effort that's gone into making an essentially unstable dangerous system prone to either exploding, not working or just poisoning you while you sleep into a boring box you can slap on the wall.

 

Heatpumps are an intrinsically easier system.  They can be made as simple boxes you slap on the outside of a building that will heat your home for less carbon than a gas boiler.  That just requires a scop of 2.5ish or better which isn't excessively hard to achieve.

 

The problem is the current cost set up where HPs need to hit 3.5 or better to make financial savings.  That is harder and costs more.

[Beelbeebub]

1 hour ago, JohnMo said:

Think the stepping stone is really hybrid heat pumps. Almost nothing to do to heating system, combi boiler and 4kW heat pump, no cylinder to find a home for, high flow temps, 80 to 85% of the heating from the heat pump.

 

The above plus more sensible energy pricing.

 

Anything else really is wishful thinking.

Or..... Allow A2A to be easily fitted (planning reform) with a subsidy to make it cheap say £500 for a 6kw 3 room split system.

 

Zero impact on existing system.  Just installed "over the top" (literally as pipe work would run along ceilings and top of walls) of the existing system.

 

A2A works to efficiently heat in shoulder months and mild winter. Old system only called on to add supplemental heat in the few cold weeks and provide hot water.

 

 

[JohnMo]

8 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

problem is the current cost set up where HPs need to hit 3.5 or better to make financial savings.  That is harder and costs more.

I would say to get a high SCoP install is quite straightforward.

 

You eliminate any input from 3rd party controls. You run 1 or 2 zone maximum, but zone volumes must be larger than the minimum acceptable for the heat pump, otherwise a single zone. Heating system isn't hydraulically separated from heat pump. Radiator systems are allowed to run load compensation as well, in houses where solar gain is an issue.

 

The system is correctly balanced and has the correct WC curve installed, prior to installer being given the grant money. All setting are behind an installer password. 3rd party verification, can remotely look at house temperature, input and outputs to confirm install is acceptable (grant money release tick box by 3rd party). Home owner can close the remote access after 31 days via a simple switch.

 

I would think all the above should come into play if you want a grant, if you don't have the grant do what you want, it's your money.

Edited December 17, 2023 by JohnMo

[Beelbeebub]

10 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

I would say to get a high SCoP install is quite straightforward.

 

You eliminate any input from 3rd party controls. You run 1 or 2 zone maximum, but zone volumes must be larger than the minimum acceptable for the heat pump, otherwise a single zone. Heating system isn't hydraulically separated from heat pump. Radiator systems are allowed to run load compensation as well, in houses where solar gain is an issue.

 

The system is correctly balanced and has the correct WC curve installed, prior to installer being given the grant money. All setting are behind an installer password. 3rd party verification, can remotely look at house temperature, input and outputs to confirm install is acceptable (grant money release tick box by 3rd party). Home owner can close the remote access after 31 days via a simple switch.

 

I would think all the above should come into play if you want a grant, if you don't have the grant do what you want, it's your money.

100% agree,

 

Commissioning HPs is a much harder and potentially longer job than a boiler.

 

Boilers are dead easy to set up so then client isn't cold. Just wind the flow temp up.  Customers rarely notice the extra cost. It's just what it is. 

 

HPs are much less forgiving and people are watching the costs like a hawk.

 

We def need some sort of auto tuning system for the WC.  

 

Pure WC is great in theory but the feedback is via a human basically saying "I'm too cold, I need to adjust the curve up". Then dive into a menu and fiddle 

 

This is different from the just turning a thermostat up that we are used to.

 

We need that same "turn a dial if you are hot/cold" experience fronting themkore complex adjustments under the bonnet 

 

[JohnMo]

2 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Boilers are dead easy to set up so then client isn't cold. Just wind the flow temp up.  Customers rarely notice the extra cost. It's just what it is.

Easy to set up badly just like an ASHP. To set up well is the same as a heat pump.  All boilers should be WC and not on an S or Y plan.  They should be getting seasonally efficiency of over 100%, the energy saving would be staggering from 80 to over 100% in millions of homes. No insulation to do, keep the same radiators, customer just keeps money in the pocket.

 

[Beelbeebub]

27 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

Easy to set up badly just like an ASHP. To set up well is the same as a heat pump.  All boilers should be WC and not on an S or Y plan.  They should be getting seasonally efficiency of over 100%, the energy saving would be staggering from 80 to over 100% in millions of homes. No insulation to do, keep the same radiators, customer just keeps money in the pocket.

 

But so many boiler *are* badly set up.

 

As long as people are warm they don't care.  The cost is just what it is, "I'm on gas, it can't be cheaper". To the extent the cost does cause an issue people just turn down the thermostat or switch the boiler off and accept it's colder.

 

And if they are cold and can afford more heat the boiler has so much reserve power (especially combis) that you can heat practically anything with one if you wind it up enough.

 

But because HPs use more expensive "fuel" and are.mirenpower constrained any flaws the setup are much more evident either as a cold house or high bills. 

[Beelbeebub]

It will interesting to see the conclusion of the video "skill builder" recently put up.  The presenter there is pretty skeptical about HPs and vocal with it 

 

He recently visited a house with a terrible setup where the owner was saying how expensive it was. Plus the fan was horrendously noisy.

 

The Heat Geek chap came along and was going to see if they could get the system running well

 

If he can rescue the system it will be a very good case study on how it is possible even in a difficult case.

[JohnMo]

Nip back up to a previous comment

 

17 hours ago, JohnMo said:

Think that's the crux of the issue. Driving gas and heating oil prices up and electric down per kWh makes the market move in a different direction. People start to insulate first, then look at different technology second.

 

 

Make it a second thought to drive the thermostat ever upwards. Price it so it more expensive, give them a free option to greater efficiency, a warmer house and 20% energy cost reduction. Environment wins, their energy costs go back to where they previously were before they added costs to gas prices.

[Beelbeebub]

32 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

Nip back up to a previous comment

 

Make it a second thought to drive the thermostat ever upwards. Price it so it more expensive, give them a free option to greater efficiency, a warmer house and 20% energy cost reduction. Environment wins, their energy costs go back to where they previously were before they added costs to gas prices.

 I was more refering to ability to do so. If you want a warmer house you can usually achieve it with aa gas boiler.

 

But yes we do need to change attitudes a bit and price/market forces is a powerful tool.

 

My only worry about being too brutal with the price stick is the effect on the poorest. The people least able to afford the upgrades (or even implement them in rented homes) are hit the hardest by the high costs. They also tend to be the most vulnerable to the effects of cold.

 

Smart meters potentially offer options. For example the winter fuel allowance could be switched to "X free kWh per day when temp drops below Y" or "cap the cost to X on days when temomdroos below Y".  

 

The same option could then be applied to vulnerable people at different levels.

[Roger440]

20 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

You forget how complex and intricate gas boilers are. There's a huge amount of effort that's gone into making an essentially unstable dangerous system prone to either exploding, not working or just poisoning you while you sleep into a boring box you can slap on the wall.

 

Heatpumps are an intrinsically easier system.  They can be made as simple boxes you slap on the outside of a building that will heat your home for less carbon than a gas boiler.  That just requires a scop of 2.5ish or better which isn't excessively hard to achieve.

 

The problem is the current cost set up where HPs need to hit 3.5 or better to make financial savings.  That is harder and costs more.

 

Problem is, its just not true.

 

Maybe in an ideal world, but in the real world, its much more likely you will get a gas boiler set up installed and working with no fuss or drama.

 

I keep going round the loop, considering my options, but its such a complex subject to get your head round, that i usually just give up. And im willing to try. Most people are not interested. Just want to pay money to someone to do it right.

 

And of course, which everyone keeps ignoring, is even if you could make the running costs "cheaper" by manipulating the market, it still makes no economic sense at all to pay to swap. Sure, if its a new build, thats entirely different, but just new builds isnt going to move trhe dial.

 

Ive got a 5 year old oil boiler. No amount of market manipluation is going make swapping to a HP anything other than a big outlay with a very long payback. I may well take that long term view, though currently minded not to and wait until someone else pays for it as government becomes ever more desperate. And enjoy cheap heatig in the interim.

 

 

[Roger440]

10 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

 

My only worry about being too brutal with the price stick is the effect on the poorest. The people least able to afford the upgrades (or even implement them in rented homes) are hit the hardest by the high costs. They also tend to be the most vulnerable to the effects of cold.

 

Ive  said this many times. And why a big change in pricing cant happen.

[Roger440]

11 hours ago, JohnMo said:

Easy to set up badly just like an ASHP. To set up well is the same as a heat pump.  All boilers should be WC and not on an S or Y plan.  They should be getting seasonally efficiency of over 100%, the energy saving would be staggering from 80 to over 100% in millions of homes. No insulation to do, keep the same radiators, customer just keeps money in the pocket.

 

 

Yes, easy to set up badly. But the result is still warm. Wasteful, maybe, but warm.

 

Im on house 4. None have had WC. All have worked fine.  Its just another level of complexity to go wrong. Ive seen enough threads on here to know this has set up problems written all over it.

 

 

[sharpener]

27 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

Yes, easy to set up badly. But the result is still warm. Wasteful, maybe, but warm.

 

Im on house 4. None have had WC. All have worked fine.  Its just another level of complexity to go wrong. Ive seen enough threads on here to know this has set up problems written all over it.

 

 

 

A bit over-dramatic. Today WC is pretty much standard fare for a new gas boiler and I think more or less mandatory.

 

I agree it wasn't always like that. 15 years ago the installers hadn't heard of WC, but I insisted they find a small boiler (20kW Vokera Mynute) that could do it. Then I had to fit a relay so WC would be disabled by a call for HW. Would have been beyond most plumbing firms. Has needed a bit of tweaking and I have recently had to replace the outdoor thermistor, the front has never been off the boiler though.

 

30 years ago I had to buy an aftermarket Boiler Manager unit made by Danfoss which modulated the boiler on and off in response to the return temp. Saved about 1/3 off the gas bill. Pity they are no longer made.

 

Whether WC is set up properly is another matter, I have read they deliberately do not do this on mass newbuilds to avoid callouts, which is a scandal (as so much about the housebuilding industry). The difference is, it goes unnoticed because a gas boiler is much more forgiving than an ASHP.

[Roger440]

4 minutes ago, sharpener said:

 

A bit over-dramatic. Today WC is pretty much standard fare for a new gas boiler and I think more or less mandatory.

 

I agree it wasn't always like that. 15 years ago the installers hadn't heard of WC, but I insisted they find a small boiler (20kW Vokera Mynute) that could do it. Then I had to fit a relay so WC would be disabled by a call for HW. Would have been beyond most plumbing firms. Has needed a bit of tweaking and I have recently had to replace the outdoor thermistor, the front has never been off the boiler though.

 

30 years ago I had to buy an aftermarket Boiler Manager unit made by Danfoss which modulated the boiler on and off in response to the return temp. Saved about 1/3 off the gas bill. Pity they are no longer made.

 

Whether WC is set up properly is another matter, I have read they deliberately do not do this on mass newbuilds to avoid callouts, which is a scandal (as so much about the housebuilding industry). The difference is, it goes unnoticed because a gas boiler is much more forgiving than an ASHP.

 

Hardly dramatic. The rest of your post merely goes on to confirm my point!