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Heat pumps won’t work in old homes, warns Bosch


Temp

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Just now, ProDave said:

The poor state of much of the UK housing stock, and who is going to upgraded them all, and when, and more importantly who is going to pay for it?

The owners should pay for it.

No one pays for my car, except me, or my diet, or holidays, so why should a house be different.

Rather than (expletive deleted) about deciding/arguing who must pay, just tax the bollocks out of house sales, say 2% of sales price for every EPC point below a B.

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1 minute ago, ProDave said:

This is the real issue.  The poor state of much of the UK housing stock, and who is going to upgraded them all, and when, and more importantly who is going to pay for it?

 

That is the can that is being kicked down the road hoping it will go away.  How you heat them is almost the secondary issue compared to how do you reduce the amount of heat they need.

Agreed. 

 

Has anyone seen any (reasonably unbiassed) estimates of the total cost of upgrading the housing stock.  With the rate of new build its reducing as a proportion of the total stock, thats for certain, and quite a lot of it is in the form of terraces which are relatively efficient by their nature and could potentially be ugraded 'en bloc'   

 

Like most problems, once you can dimension it, there is a chance of planning to solve it.  Of course there are plenty of people with a vested interest in not knowing how much it would cost to fix this problem (but equally a whole industry, the insulation industry, which has a very strong vested interest in knowing).  

 

If this research hasnnt already been done its an interesting piece of work for someone.

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2 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

The owners should pay for it.

No one pays for my car, except me, or my diet, or holidays, so why should a house be different..

er... because many couldn't afford it and there is public benefit as well as private benefit to the upgrade (unlike your car, holiday or diet, from which the public gain no benefit). 

 

Practically, if it is to happen (which it must), it will need a mix of public and private funding.  Absolutely if you can easily afford it you should pay, but if you can't then there is a strong public interest in a 'helping hand' from taxation.

 

 

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Google the latest developments in the EU  Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The EPC system is being overhauled (much like the energy rating of appliances) so the new system an A will be a poor rating and E or F will be good (nothing like confusing the consumer)?

 

And they are setting a target that ALL buildings, new and existing will be carbon neutral by 2050 with a set of dates when all buildings must meet particular standards.

 

I have not seen an explanation yet of what happens if they say your house has to meet a certain standard by a certain date and you can't afford to pay for the upgrades.........

 

Something needs to happen, because we have a situation where consumers mostly buy houses with no regard to the EPC, and then are the first to complain at high heating bills.  It has long been my opinion that houses with a poor EPC should be worth less than the same size house with a good EPC to reflect both the high ongoing running costs and the eventual cost of upgrading them.

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8 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

because many couldn't afford it

No one can ever afford anything.

It does not have to cost the often quoted £25,000, which is, in any case, is about 9% of the property value.

it is about time we stopped making excuses and exceptions, and just forced people into doing it at time of sale, people have been talking about this for two decades, and all that has happened is nothing.

 

And many people will think me going away on a long foreign holiday has huge public benefits.

Edited by SteamyTea
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The UK has historically been a strong economy globally, GDP per capita was high and the cost of energy was relatively modest on an individual's pocket. 

 

When I lived there I was always surprised at how terrible house windows and doors were. Drafty sash single glazed items with solid timber frames from the early 20th century were the norm. They all disappeared in Ireland in the 1990's replaced by not so pretty but  vastly thermally superior PVC double glazing. 

 

I suspect it was because we had no money then and couldn't afford to heat our houses otherwise. 

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11 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Google the latest developments in the EU  Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The EPC system is being overhauled (much like the energy rating of appliances) so the new system an A will be a poor rating and E or F will be good (nothing like confusing the consumer)?

 

And they are setting a target that ALL buildings, new and existing will be carbon neutral by 2050 with a set of dates when all buildings must meet particular standards.

 

I have not seen an explanation yet of what happens if they say your house has to meet a certain standard by a certain date and you can't afford to pay for the upgrades.........

 

Something needs to happen, because we have a situation where consumers mostly buy houses with no regard to the EPC, and then are the first to complain at high heating bills.  It has long been my opinion that houses with a poor EPC should be worth less than the same size house with a good EPC to reflect both the high ongoing running costs and the eventual cost of upgrading them.

 It's bonkers complicated. 

 

How about kWh/year.

 

Much like MPG for a car. At the moment an enormous house with average heat loss but with a deathstar worth of PV on the roof can be A rated. 

 

It'll still cost a fortune to heat in the winter. 

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5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

No one can ever afford anything.

Thats a fair comment I concede.  However I do know people who genuinely couldn't afford it and you also have to consider the almost inevitable effect on the poorest members of society if landlords were forced to upgrade at their own expense.

 

7 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

It does not have to cost the often quoted £25,000, which is, in any case, is about 9% of the property value.

 

True.

 

The UK GDP is about £M600,000.  We have 23M houses.  So if every house cost 25K to upgrade the total cost would be very roughly equal to GDP.  However this is clearly a gross over estimate, we really do need a realistic estimate of total cost to make headway in this argument!

15 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

it is about time we stopped making excuses and exceptions, and just forced people into doing it at time of sale, people have been talking about this for two decades, and all that has happened is nothing

I completely agree with the first and last part of this sentence.  The middle part is more challenging however, because impediments to property sale, become impediments to workforce flexibility, which is a drag on the economy that we do not need. 

 

This is a macro-economic and social challenge as well as a micro-economic one.  Some of the the best economists, together with some of the best scientists/engineers, should be figuring out the realistic options (for which they will need some realistic figures).  I would love to believe that, somewhere in Government, there is a working party doing just that.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Iceverge said:

 It's bonkers complicated. 

 

How about kWh/year.

 

Much like MPG for a car. At the moment an enormous house with average heat loss but with a deathstar worth of PV on the roof can be A rated. 

 

It'll still cost a fortune to heat in the winter

Depends what the objective of the EPC is.  If its the public objective of incentivising reduced carbon emissions, then the offset due to the solar production is, at least to an extent, valid.  If its the private objective of informing people how much their house is going to cost to heat, then your comment is valid.  My understanding is that its the former more than the latter. 

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48 minutes ago, Iceverge said:

@RichardL like you I think 

 A2A is a sensible option, even for for old properties. @Hanksy did a few posts a year or two back demonstrating this. Unlike ASHP you avoid heating any fabric (UFH) which in uninsulated houses is a black hole for energy use. 

 

A good unit can be installed for maybe £1500.  One in the hallway or living room of every gas boilered house could significantly reduce gas demand (provided the power stations run on something low emission) . 

 

 Minimal disruption Vs ASHP and better COP. Leave the gas in place for topping up cold rooms and DHW.

Having just done exactly this, I have to agree it's an easy win. <£700 for DIY unit and ancilliaries, installed in a day and currently offsetting ~60% of my gas heating use at a CoP of around 3.7. Gas boiler kicking in for HW and the parts of the house it doesn't reach. Heat pump technology doesn't need to be expensive to have a massive impact.

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25 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

I do know people who genuinely couldn't afford it and you also have to consider the almost inevitable effect on the poorest members of society if landlords were forced to upgrade at their own expense

The landlords can sell up if the business case cannot be made to be in the rental market. The property will not magically vanish. It is not the same as the fresh food market.

 

27 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

So if every house cost 25K to upgrade the total cost would be very roughly equal to GDP.

Does not have to be done in a year, it just has got to start.

UK GDP is around £3tn.

So about 23%. I think you quoted 1 quarters GDP.

Insulating homes, like a good old fashion war, or not intercepting large, illegal drug shipments, actually increases GDP.

GDP growth is not, in itself, a good indicators of a better general environment.

35 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

The middle part is more challenging however, because impediments to property sale, become impediments to workforce flexibility, which is a drag on the economy that we do not need.

You only have to look at surnames to realise that there has never been much mobility in the workplace.

The people most likely to move for work, are the group that have lefts since we voted to leave the EU.

My family are a bit peculiar. My Grandparents were children of immigrants. After WW1, they both got moved as part of the government's relocation policy. Grandmother (French) from Kent to Derbyshire, Grandfather (Turkish) from Cornwall to Derbyshire.

Then, they got moved again (Grandfather was a Civil Servant) to Buckinghamshire. 

My Father's family was from the Midlands, Wolverhampton (Yam Yams), my Grandfather, on that side, was in the forces (Army) so got moved a lot, but ended up disabled out in Bucks, so just stayed there. The rest of that side if the family are still in Wolverhampton.

Most if the people I know still live in the area their grandparents grew up in, just one side of my family has moved about because of work, and that is my immediate family, and my Mother's sister, who moved to Canada 50 years ago.

So the drag on the economy is not an immobile workforce, more a case of immobile commerce (what Levelling Up is all about.

 

Houses are not mobile, so easy to insulate. Takes a few days for most.

So no more excuses, we just need to do what we can, starting today.

It really is not hard, or that expensive.

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2 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Houses are not mobile, so easy to insulate. Takes a few days for most.

So no more excuses, we just need to do what we can, starting today.

It really is not hard, or that expensive.

Fundamentally I am in violent agreement with you!

 

At the same time I'm a political realist.  What MUST happen simply WON'T happen unless either (a) we become a benevolant dictatorship or (b) a 'package' which is saleable to the readers of the Daily Mail is constructed.  (a) isnt going to happen (although I grant we may become a malevolant dictatorship), so it has to be (b).  Thus we need some of our best people to work out the options.  Fast!

 

Thats absolutely not an excuse for delaying doing what we can do, rather its a mechanism to make this happen on a wider scale.

 

 

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

So about 23%. I think you quoted 1 quarters GDP.

 

Apologies you are right.

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5 hours ago, ReedRichards said:

Hydrogen is a very leaky gas.  Is it really more viable than a heat pump?

 

Hydrogen is also a greenhouse gas I believe, so important not to have lots of leaks from infrastructure.

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2 hours ago, Post and beam said:

Unless the containment is very high tech i think hydrogen is lost at the rate of .7% per day. Not really an issue within the home on the downstream side of the meter but an issue none the less.

 I don't think this figure can possibly be known in the real world, the best that could be done at present is a trial where the hydrogen is introduced vey close to the point of use.  

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10 minutes ago, Temp said:

Hydrogen is also a greenhouse gas I believe, so important not to have lots of leaks from infrastructure.

 

There was some research published this week, on this subject.

 

While not directly a greenhouse gas, fugitive hydrogen, leaked from its production and use, is expected to cause an increase in Methane in the atmosphere (which obviously is a greenhouse gas) as the increased hydrogen will keep the hydroxyl radical busy that would otherwise be breaking the methane down. (I may be para-phrasing a little.)

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/03/230313162740.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,cause decades-long climate consequences.

Edited by IanR
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10 minutes ago, ReedRichards said:

I don't think this figure can possibly be known in the real world

Except that it can. The physics of the Molecule mean that it is almost impossible to store it without this rate of loss. Metal pipe is not the 'high tech' required  to contain it.

The consumer wont pay for this loss and if a cheap and easy method of plentiful production were possible then who would care anyway.

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9 minutes ago, Temp said:

If we make hydrogen by the electrolysis of water we can probably expect it to cost around 30% more than electricity by the time it gets to houses. 

That's a good, possibly defining point.  Are there cheaper methods.  If not then it should be ruled out here and now

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21 minutes ago, Temp said:

If we make hydrogen by the electrolysis of water we can probably expect it to cost around 30% more than electricity by the time it gets to houses. 

 

That would only account for the 1.5kWh of Electricity it takes to make 1kWh of green hydrogen @ the electrolyser. It doesn't cover the power required to compress it to a similar energy density as natural gas and pump it through the gas network. Estimates I've seen are 1kWh - 2kWh of electricity to transport 1kWh of hydrogen.

Edited by IanR
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According to hellohydrogen.com, which is the first hit I got when I googled 'how to make hydrogen', there are two ways to produce hydrogen.  ' The first is through electrolysis, which uses renewable power to split hydrogen from water. The second is splitting hydrogen from natural gas and storing the remaining carbon dioxide away.'

 

Now here is the interesting thing.  The website features prominently a picture of a boiler branded, guess who, Worcester (Bosch).

 

No further comment on bias needed.

Edited by JamesPa
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