Cheaper PV panels on the way

[Guest Alphonsox]

Maybe.....

 

The EU's anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese PV panels ends today.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-trade/eu-ends-trade-controls-on-chinese-solar-panels-idUSKCN1LG1QM

 

Even better our mate Donald has decided to help divert cheap panels to the EU by imposing his own tariffs on imports into the USA.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2018/09/03/donald-trump-just-helped-boost-european-renewables-by-accident/#5aa59e939d3d

 

Panel prices could "decline by up to 30%"

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/03/mip-impact-eu-module-prices-to-decline-up-to-30-2019-pv-demand-up-40/

 

Maybe time to look at that non-MCS install again.

[Triassic]

I was wondering if other building related stuff, made in China and originally destined for the good ol US of A, might be “dumped” here at a cheaper price?

[vivienz]

I saw this a while back but then read recently that the tariff had been extended again.  I will have a mooch around when I have a moment to see if I can find it again.

[Guest Alphonsox]

6 minutes ago, vivienz said:

I saw this a while back but then read recently that the tariff had been extended again.  I will have a mooch around when I have a moment to see if I can find it again.

 

Extension was considered in June at the request of a number of a number of concerned EU panel manufactures but the decision was to let the tariffs drop.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-solar/eu-looks-into-extending-import-controls-on-chinese-solar-panels-idUKKBN1JF1CB

[vivienz]

Woohoo!  Too late for me, but I'd be getting stuck in there.  No wonder it's so hard to get an MCS install now.

[Visti]

Perfect timing, just going about quotes now for PV

[Big Neil]

Pardon my ignorance please put i want to clarify my understanding of something;

MCS = The certification needed for being allowed to claim back excess generation from your solar PV equipment, which is fed into the grid?

 

Does this mean that when and if the Eu tariff on Chinese panels ends and the US tariff on them comes into effect that the extra cost involved for a MCS accredited system taking into account any FIT payments  makes just installing cheaper panels more economic.

 

I know the FIT is poor compared to what it used to be and read somewhere recently that it is supposed to be ending next year completely, but if the second part of that is not true, why WOULDN'T you have something that is certified to give you a FIT payment. Is it because the quality between chinese panels and others is negligable if possibly non existent??

[newhome]

FIT is ending next year 

 

https://www.evoenergy.co.uk/blog/20314/feed-in-tariff-to-end-april-2019/

 

[newhome]

MCS vs non MCS install. Well for an ASHP my MCS quote was 14.6k. People on here have DIYed that for around 5k or less. The RHI payment doesn’t make up the difference TBH. 

[Guest Alphonsox]

21 minutes ago, Big Neil said:

Pardon my ignorance please put i want to clarify my understanding of something;

MCS = The certification needed for being allowed to claim back excess generation from your solar PV equipment, which is fed into the grid?

 

Does this mean that when and if the Eu tariff on Chinese panels ends and the US tariff on them comes into effect that the extra cost involved for a MCS accredited system taking into account any FIT payments  makes just installing cheaper panels more economic.

 

I know the FIT is poor compared to what it used to be and read somewhere recently that it is supposed to be ending next year completely, but if the second part of that is not true, why WOULDN'T you have something that is certified to give you a FIT payment. Is it because the quality between chinese panels and others is negligable if possibly non existent??

 

This is all down to cost. The cost of the panels, inverter and mounting kit for a 4Kw roof mounted array is in the order of £3500, the same system installed by an MCS accredited fitter will be around the £5K mark. So you are handing over £1.5K to get someone to spend the day up a ladder and to fill in some forms. This has to be traded off against the potential future FIT payments. If you expect to consume most of the electricty you generate the MCS route starts to look expensive.

 

 

 

 

[Jeremy Harris]

Just to throw a note of caution in here, having looked at the relative prices of panels actually made in China, that attract the anti-dumping tariff that's being scrapped, vs the price of the same panels made by the same companies at their offshore factories (outside China), and by panels made by non-Chinese manufacturers there isn't that big a difference.  When the EU introduced the anti-dumping tariff, Chinese panel manufacturers got around it by moving assembly outside China, so that the panels didn't then attract the EU tariff.  This was slightly more expensive, but it allowed them to sell into the EU without the punitive duty. 

 

However, since then manufacturing costs have increased in China, and despite the high volume of production, panels supplied direct from China without the burden of the EU tariff aren't going to be massively lower in price.  I reckon at the very most the saving might be around 2 to 3% to the end user, worth having, perhaps, but nothing like the headline-grabbing anti-dumping tariff rate of 30%.

 

Part of the reason that the EU are dropping the anti-dumping tariff is because it has been ineffectual, so I'm not convinced we'll see a big drop in prices at all.

[Alexphd1]

Technically a MCS installation cost should come down aswell...... probably wishful thinking!  

Crazy to think the panel will probably be cheaper than the inroof flashing kit!

[Guest Alphonsox]

6 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

Just to throw a note of caution in here, having looked at the relative prices of panels actually made in China, that attract the anti-dumping tariff that's being scrapped, vs the price of the same panels made by the same companies at their offshore factories (outside China), and by panels made by non-Chinese manufacturers there isn't that big a difference.  When the EU introduced the anti-dumping tariff, Chinese panel manufacturers got around it by moving assembly outside China, so that the panels didn't then attract the EU tariff.  This was slightly more expensive, but it allowed them to sell into the EU without the punitive duty. 

 

However, since then manufacturing costs have increased in China, and despite the high volume of production, panels supplied direct from China without the burden of the EU tariff aren't going to be massively lower in price.  I reckon at the very most the saving might be around 2 to 3% to the end user, worth having, perhaps, but nothing like the headline-grabbing anti-dumping tariff rate of 30%.

 

Part of the reason that the EU are dropping the anti-dumping tariff is because it has been ineffectual, so I'm not convinced we'll see a big drop in prices at all.

 

This is where the Trump effect hopefully kicks in. The original reason for the EU tariffs was that the Chinese factories were selling well below manufacturing cost due to over capacity. Over time market demand has increased and the selling price of the Chinese panels has risen as they no longer need to dump panels. At the current prices and current demand the prices probably wont change too much when the EU tariffs are removed. However if the USA imposes punitive tariffs things will move back into oversupply hopefully leading to cheap panels being dumped to the market just like the good old days. 

At last - An American president working in our interests. With luck the same Trump magic can be applied to a vast array of non-US produced goods. Personally I'm waiting for the prices of BMWs to plummet for the same reasons ?

 

 

[Jeremy Harris]

It might happen, but I'd not hold my breath.  The anti-dumping tariff did virtually nothing in practice, and I strongly suspect that the USA imposing punitive tariffs won't have much impact either.

 

What seemed to happen is that manufacture (or probably more accurately, assembly) shifted from mainland China to other areas in South East Asia, and my guess is that Trump won't go as far as to impose punitive tariffs across the whole of that region.

 

 

[Jeremy Harris]

Just been checking wholesale prices, to get a feel for the sort of difference that removing the tariff is likely to have.  Chinese manufacturers seem to be about 1.5p/W cheaper, at the most, than other manufacturers.  Current wholesale module prices seem to be running at around 28 to 30p/W, so we might see a maximum wholesale panel price drop now the tariff is removed of as much as 5%, perhaps.  That may well not result in a retail price drop that's as great as this, though, as my guess is that retailers have been working on pretty slim margins for a while now, so they may well take this opportunity to improve their margins, rather than match the wholesale price drop.

 

It's going to take around 8 weeks for the first Chinese panels to arrive in the UK, at a guess, so we won't know the true impact on prices for some time, probably not until well into the new year when there has been sufficient additional supply to have a significant impact on the UK retail market.

 

First places to watch for low prices are likely to be those retailers that had a tradition of importing panels direct from China in the past, and who have maintained a business selling other Chinese made products directly into the UK market in the meantime.  I can think of three or four companies that may well be ones to watch, but first off the mark are bound to be all the drop-shippers on Ebay and the like, who will almost certainly get in first with lower prices, as their supply chain is already in place and their UK overheads are already very low.  The downside there is going to be whether the quality is OK.  No reason to suspect it won't be, but I think we can expect to see a lot of Chinese made panels in the drop-shippers outlets that don't carry any real form of approval.  Whether that matters or not for something as relatively simple as a PV panel is debatable, as long as the panel cabling and connectors are checked and found to be OK.

[Guest Alphonsox]

As a counterpoint this is well worth a read

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-03/china-solar-giants-double-down-on-growth-plans-as-shares-crater