Why we need "Net zero"

[Beelbeebub]

12 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

You could add minor events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sent gas prices through the roof. Building big nuclear generator, which the tax payer seems to be paying for and also adding to electric bills

That's the point. The high price of electricity is being blamed, by some, on the increace in renewables capacity simply because renewables capacity is now higher than it was and prices are now higher than they were. 

 

 

[Beelbeebub]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

NO.

 

It's the fact that the ridiculous energy market we are stuck with, prices ALL electricity at the cost of the most expensive which is gas.  So even though from that graph gas provides less than 40% of our energy all of it is priced as if it were all from gas.

 

We need a radical change to the energy market to stop this nonsense.  Otherwise the promise of "electricity will only get cheaper with more renewables" will only happen when renewables reaches 100% and the last gas power station closes down.

 

We are being conned / ripped off and most people are too blinkered to even notice this.

My point. 

 

At least with renewables we have the option of an alternative pricing structure to pass the benefit of the lower cost on to consumers (whether we do that is in thr lap of politicians and their lobbyists.... so I'm not holding my breath) 

 

But the point is that without renewables we will have no choice at all. 

 

Which makes the lobbyists job easier - so they put theor effort into slowing renewables. 

 

Far easier to prevent renewables from being built than to argue why a politician shouldn't take advantage of the cheaper power. 

[SteamyTea]

36 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Is the increacing share of renewables to blame for the Uk's high electricity prices

 

37 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Or is it that electricity prices track gas prices and gas has become more expensive

Correlation is not causation.

Electricity prices are set by the highest priced, deliverable, energy, that is part of the half hour auctions.  This is called the marginal price (I know you know all this).

The high price is caused by this marginal pricing system.

It would be much better if, for any given half hour period, that the mean auction price, based of weighted averages, was paid.  That would get rid of those ridiculous price spikes, and reduce the potential losses at the lower end, I think.  May try and model it later.

[Beelbeebub]

55 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

 

Correlation is not causation.

Electricity prices are set by the highest priced, deliverable, energy, that is part of the half hour auctions.  This is called the marginal price (I know you know all this).

The high price is caused by this marginal pricing system.

It would be much better if, for any given half hour period, that the mean auction price, based of weighted averages, was paid.  That would get rid of those ridiculous price spikes, and reduce the potential losses at the lower end, I think.  May try and model it later.

Yes, thr marginal pricing system is the reason our electricity prices track gas. 

 

The fact this is true means that the accusation that higher electricity prices we pay now are due to higher renwable capacity cannot be correct.

[ProDave]

57 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

The fact this is true means that the accusation that higher electricity prices we pay now are due to higher renwable capacity cannot be correct.

And neither is the claim that prices will come down as we have more renewable capacity.  That has also been proved to be incorrect.  It is a great shame it is our MP's that are still telling us these untruths.

[SteamyTea]

Average domestic household energy bills (~£1750) are still around 5% of average household earnings (~£36,700).

 

[ProDave]

22 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Average domestic household energy bills (~£1750) are still around 5% of average household earnings (~£36,700).

 

And my council tax is £1000 more than that, but unlike energy bills, I can't reduce it by switching "supplier" or making improvements to my house.

[SteamyTea]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

council tax

This is about energy prices, not council tax.

 

 

If you want to get things changed, go into politics.

[saveasteading]

50 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

If you want to get things changed, go into politics

Council meetings are open to the public. Parish, town, district, county, national.

The meetings themselves may be tedious, and for the councillors too, but you learn and see that some councillors are there for party or their own purposes, and others are trying to make things fairer.... and up against the party machines.

Also some get constant grief from the voters, whatever they do.

 

I recommend going along to a committee that is of interest.. budget,  planning, whatever.

 

 

 

[Beelbeebub]

3 hours ago, ProDave said:

And neither is the claim that prices will come down as we have more renewable capacity.  That has also been proved to be incorrect.  It is a great shame it is our MP's that are still telling us these untruths.

But as has been pointed out continually - the prices remain pegged to gas because of the auction structure. 

 

If we had a magic electric generator that produced 25GW 24h a day for a penny year, that would provide nearly 70% of the UK annual electric demand for 1p yet the wholesale price of electricity would have remained the same under the auctions system and people would be claiming that magic electric generators increaced our bills. 

 

We do need to come up with a new market mechanism that allows the savings of cheaper generation to be passed on to consumers whilst also maintain investment and reliability. 

 

That is a separate issue from "Net zero". 

 

But fundamental to coming up with that solution *is having the cheaper generation capacity in the first place*

[BotusBuild]

@Beelbeebub, before I say what I'm here to say, I agree with the overall sentiment of your POV of the OP.

 

Now, do you understand that the auction is not just a national thing? As we are interconnected to Europe for electricity, that auction involves international suppliers. Behind all that is the global gas pricing market (a much bigger thing). Yes, it sucks, I agree.

 

But all of that makes it a damn sight more difficult to change the system - just look at how long things take for the EU to reach agreement on anything as an example.

 

By all means suggest the change, but keep in mind the diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical matters that would be brought to bear in trying to do so.

 

I'm not saying its impossible but good luck trying to make it happen, or finding a political party that you can vote for who will make it happen.

[SteamyTea]

15 minutes ago, BotusBuild said:

the auction is not just a national thing

Isn't that more reason to deploy more, non thermal, generation capacity and storage.

 

It is also amazing how fast a government can make financial changes, just look wheat they have done with student loans.

 

[BotusBuild]

Yes, and no.

Yes, replace all FF generating capacity with non-FF alternatives and you can then price electricity accordingly. I'm really not going to respond to any comments on that statement. It's just not going to happen overnight, but I think we all agree on that.

 

No, because while we are interconnected and other countries use gas (bought on that global market) we are beholden to the price of electricity of those other countries.

 

Don't misunderstand me, I believe we should be investing to  remove our dependence on using FF to create electricity, or find ways to remove the harm caused by using FF. There is no silver bullet, but it does not preclude us from doing what we can while remaining economically viable in a global economy. It's not easy.

 

Out.

[SteamyTea]

55 minutes ago, BotusBuild said:

No, because while we are interconnected and other countries use gas (bought on that global market) we are beholden to the price of electricity of those other countries.

I have just spent a few minutes trying to find some interconnect price, only one I found was from 2021, was around 19euro/MWh.

Current prices can been seen here.

https://grid.iamkate.com/

No idea how good Kate's site is, but I think her father used to lecture in RE at Plymouth.

[Beelbeebub]

@botusbuild is correct. 

 

Because we are part of a larger market uk generators (like our hypothetical magic generator) will be able to export some of their electricity via the interconnects so we are "competing" with European energy prices.  This is why the French experienced a spike in their electricity prices despite having lots of nuclear generators - French consumer were having to compete with British consumers for French nuclear electric. 

 

Of course this is governed by the interconnect capacity more than anything. At some point the UK will have so much capacity that it simply cannot export enough if it to boost the price - sort of like the problem Scotland has already... 

 

And a larger better connected grid is better. Ultimately we could be benefiting from Spanish solar, they will benefit from British wind, Norwegian hydro, solar and wind across Eastern Europe etc. Across Europe, the sun is usually shining somewhere and the wind is probably blowing somewhere. 

 

So yes, lowering the energy price isn't quite as simple as ditching the auction. 

 

On the other hand it is an artifact of our (wider) market so by making changes the price could probably be lowered - unless the current system and mix is (by some miracle) thr absolute optimum already.... 😁 

[Roger440]

6 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

But as has been pointed out continually - the prices remain pegged to gas because of the auction structure. 

 

If we had a magic electric generator that produced 25GW 24h a day for a penny year, that would provide nearly 70% of the UK annual electric demand for 1p yet the wholesale price of electricity would have remained the same under the auctions system and people would be claiming that magic electric generators increaced our bills. 

 

We do need to come up with a new market mechanism that allows the savings of cheaper generation to be passed on to consumers whilst also maintain investment and reliability. 

 

That is a separate issue from "Net zero". 

 

But fundamental to coming up with that solution *is having the cheaper generation capacity in the first place*

 

But ProDaves point, which you ignored, is that the story we are told, is that renewables will reduce our electricity costs.

 

This is false, or more accurately, a blatent lie, often repeated on here. And its a lie for the very reasons you outlined. As well as specific government policies that see addtional costs tacked on to bills. And those reasons are not going to change.

 

I dont know what this thread is for other than you outlining a non existent uptopia?

[Roger440]

7 hours ago, saveasteading said:

Council meetings are open to the public. Parish, town, district, county, national.

The meetings themselves may be tedious, and for the councillors too, but you learn and see that some councillors are there for party or their own purposes, and others are trying to make things fairer.... and up against the party machines.

Also some get constant grief from the voters, whatever they do.

 

I recommend going along to a committee that is of interest.. budget,  planning, whatever.

 

 

 

 

Tedious doesnt start to cover it.

 

At the last place, where i lived for 8 years, when i left, the parish council meeting minutes, were essentially the exact same list of issues as the day i moved in. Essentially, with one notable exception, they achieved just about nothing.

 

I dont bother now. Experience tells me its genuinely a complete waste of time. Thats not as it should be, but sadly that is how it is.

[Beelbeebub]

26 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

But ProDaves point, which you ignored, is that the story we are told, is that renewables will reduce our electricity costs.

 

This is false, or more accurately, a blatent lie, often repeated on here. And its a lie for the very reasons you outlined. As well as specific government policies that see addtional costs tacked on to bills. And those reasons are not going to change.

 

I dont know what this thread is for other than you outlining a non existent uptopia?

The orginal point of this thread is that, despite what some political parties would have you believe, the UK's production of oil and gas are going to continue to fall, no matter what we do. 

 

We therefore have the choice between "Net zero" polices like demand reduction and electrification of heat and transport or becoming even more dependent on oil and gas from other countries the majority of which are not friendly.

 

Renewable electricity is cheaper to generate than any other type. Therefore it has the potential to reduce the price of energy. This is undeniable. 

 

People are already starting to get cheaper electricty by using variable tarrifs to take advantage of times when you can get a khw of electricty for a penny. 

 

The fact that our current market setup doesn't pass this cheaper electricity price on to consumers isn't the fault of renewables.

 

To blame the high price of electricity on renewables - that is the blatant lie, often told here (and in the media).