Bottom line batteries

[Crofter]

38 minutes ago, ragg987 said:

Even if the numbers are wrong the sentiment if probably right.

 

However, chances are that majority of the vehicles are used at PEAK times - e.g. morning run to office / school whatever. So then we still need 70% ⁽¹⁾ of the vehicles to support the concurrent users at peak. So traffic cannot be avoided unless there is a major change in our ways of living or we adopt mass transport in larger numbers.

 

This is the problem with stats - on the face of it they can show anything, but the detail is importnat too.

 

⁽¹⁾ or whatever the percentage might be - I made that up to illustrate the point

 

It should be possible for behaviour to adjust. If you absolutely must travel at peak time, you will pay for that privilege. If it's possible to delay the journey by an hour, you'll see an incentive to do so. Schools already stagger their hours to help spread congestion; plenty of other workplaces could do the same.

It's a similar idea to the smart grid concept where people pay less if they are willing to wait until the wind is blowing or sun is shining.

 

An additional factor is that a shift away from individually owned vehicles might see more people willing to share a vehicle with others- especially once driverless technology arrives. Putting five people in a car rather than one could have an enormous impact on congestion.

[Ferdinand]

Some levels cations are perhaps obvious.

 

Current petrol stationss.

Hand car washes.

McDonalds etc.

Little Chef.

Supermarkets.

Gastropubs.

Out of Town shopping.

 

etc.

 

 

[Temp]

Who cares if electric cars are green or not. Soon they will have plenty of range, be cheaper to build and run and may even have better performance. When people see this happening I think there could be an explosion in demand. Anyone know what the waiting list is for a Tesla model 3? 18 months? I think some car companies have been slow to wake up to the realisation that electric cars have to potential to be a "disruptive technology".

 

The only thing I can see that might put a spanner in the works is the charging infrastructure. I can see queues at motorway charging stations for example. I can also see some people being told sorry you can't have an electric car because there are too many in your village already and the local grid can't cope.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stones]

In the long term, electric vehicles won't be cheaper to run, as the government will have to tax use of EVs (be it increased VEL, dynamic road charging etc) to make up the shortfall in current fuel duty revenue.

[Jeremy Harris]

19 minutes ago, Temp said:

Who cares if electric cars are green or not. Soon they will have plenty of range, be cheaper to build and run and may even have better performance. When people see this happening I think there could be an explosion in demand. Anyone know what the waiting list is for a Tesla model 3? 18 months? I think some car companies have been slow to wake up to the realisation that electric cars have to potential to be a "disruptive technology".

 

The only thing I can see that might put a spanner in the works is the charging infrastructure. I can see queues at motorway charging stations for example. I can also see some people being told sorry you can't have an electric car because there are too many in your village already and the local grid can't cope.

 

 

You're right, they will sell themselves.  All it takes is having the courage to get one and drive one.  Once you're used to silent power, with gobsmacking, stump-pulling torque from a standing start, no gear changes, effortless driving, with no worries about hesitation when pulling out of difficult junctions, or when overtaking, people will just not want to go back to conventional cars.

 

The charging infrastructure really isn't a big issue, in terms of the grid.  The grid has masses of spare capacity to charge cars, so that's not an issue.  The most significant charging infrastructure problem is running street cabling for on-street, and car parking area, charge points.

 

However, anyone that's been to Canada will have seen all the tens of thousands of sump heater connection points.  In infrastructure terms, putting these in is very little different to putting in charge points - charge points just need heavier gauge cables.  If Canada has managed to roll out all these sump heater points and manage their maintenance and upkeep for decades, then there really shouldn't be an issue with us fitting charge points.

 

I think the idea of charging at filling stations is a dead duck.  In the main, people just won't want the hassle, I think.  I'm already at the stage where having to go out of my way to fill the car with fuel every few weeks is getting to be a pain, and I'd quite happily have no filling stations, just charging points wherever I choose to park, be that a street, home, car park, place of work or shopping centre.

[jack]

On topic (ish):

 

https://imgur.com/gallery/MDMLh

[Jeremy Harris]

7 minutes ago, jack said:

On topic (ish):

 

https://imgur.com/gallery/MDMLh

 

The interesting thing here is the way that Elon Musk is looking ahead.  I thought he was being very bold when he made the offer to South Australia, but now realise he was just being very canny - he already had around half the batteries built.  Tesla have ironed out the bugs in making a small scale power grid using PV and batteries; they worked this out when designing the Gigafactory (which may well be around the same scale as the grid on PR).

 

I think he can do it.  South Australia will be the first big test, and my money is on Tesla pulling it off.  Tesla need a very big market for the output from their Gigafactories, as they are pinning everything on getting the battery pack price down, so the more they sell the cheaper they get.  This then reduces the major component cost on their cars, and their cars are already selling with a massive markup between cost and price when compared to other car manufacturers.

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, Temp said:

Who cares if electric cars are green or not. Soon they will have plenty of range, be cheaper to build and run and may even have better performance. When people see this happening I think there could be an explosion in demand. Anyone know what the waiting list is for a Tesla model 3? 18 months? I think some car companies have been slow to wake up to the realisation that electric cars have to potential to be a "disruptive technology".

 

The only thing I can see that might put a spanner in the works is the charging infrastructure. I can see queues at motorway charging stations for example. I can also see some people being told sorry you can't have an electric car because there are too many in your village already and the local grid can't cope.

 

 

 

 

 

In that case I see a market developing in Charge at My House to match Park at My House.

 

The capacity will exist.

 

I think where people wait to charge depends on what services are there to keep you occupied and whether you can get a ten minute top up and if that is on offer and worthwhile.

 

It also needs booksble charge points.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Ferdinand

[Jeremy Harris]

1 minute ago, Ferdinand said:

In that case I see a market developing in Charge at My House to match Park at My House.

 

The capacity will exist.

 

 

It already exists.  There is a coordinating website that people can opt to join if they have a charge point, allowing other EV owners to charge.  I do it, not through the website yet, but with EV owning friends.  If they are stopping in the village they can just park on my drive and get a charge.  It works well, at least between people you know and trust, and the cost per top-up charge is so small it's not worth the hassle of trying to collect any money.

[SteamyTea]

5 hours ago, ragg987 said:

This is the problem with stats - on the face of it they can show anything, but the detail is importnat too.

a) Only if you don't understand them

b) Only if the person compiling them does not understand them

 

Example:

The mean number of legs for the human population is less than 2.

That means some people should have 3 legs.

Edited October 6, 2017 by SteamyTea

[jack]

16 hours ago, JSHarris said:

The interesting thing here is the way that Elon Musk is looking ahead. 

 

That's the interesting thing about just about everything he does. He doesn't just speculate in a science fiction sort of way, but looks ahead and takes bold, concrete steps.