Possible new Tesla Powerwall this year?

[Thorfun]

https://apple.news/A46nta_nuQha62O9NW43pYQ
 

In 2022, we are heavily investing in Tesla products. I can’t say exactly what is coming we want to maintain confidentiality but across the board on PVs, on Solar Roof, on Powerwall look forward to greatly improved installation efficiency, aesthetic, and product performance.

[Dan F]

I've all but given up on Powerwall and am planning to install a Victron system.  Be interesting to see what/if anything Tesla might release before signing on the dotted line though.   Given we already have our completion certificate the plan is to add some more PV so that the whole install can be zero-rated.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Dan F

[Thorfun]

40 minutes ago, Dan F said:

I've all but given up on Powerwall and am planning to install a Victron system.  Be interesting to see what/if anything Tesla might release before signing on the dotted line though.   Given we already have our completion certificate the plan is to add some more PV so that the whole install can be zero-rated.

me too (given up on Powerwall that is) and I have my Squirrel Pod and 6.4kWh batteries in the garage waiting to be installed. I just thought that someone might be interested in the news.

[TonyT]

Pylontech batteries anyone.

modular so let’s you add extra on pretty easy

[Thorfun]

Just now, TonyT said:

Pylontech batteries anyone.

modular so let’s you add extra on pretty easy

indeed and the solution I've gone with albeit not Pylontech. I got these (which are similar to the Pylontech ones) with a Squirrel Pod (I've posted on other threads about my solution but I've added the info here for reference)

 

Greenlinx.pdf.pdf

 

[Wil]

Hmm, so I have a quote from earlier in the year for 2xPW2, first one with gateway at £9250 installed, second add on at £7400 installed. The installer now has them in stock and my place in  the queue so it's decision time.

 

I've been um-ing and ah-ing about it for so damn long, I'm still trying to do the maths to work out if it's worth it. I have 5kWp of solar, but discounting that and charging the batteries at E7 rate (currently 20p) and discharging to cover day useage at 27p/kWh. Most days outside of summer I use 20-30kWh 12-20 if I don't charge the PHEV (which is done at E7 anyway) and excluding heating, which I can't hope to cover with battery storage.

 

Not taking solar charging and into account for worst case scenario:

so for each kWh offset it's currently saving 7p. for 12kWh per day it's saving £0.84. for 365 days is £306 per year in saving if I purely offset E7 rates. so a payback of 54 years 😞 For 20kWh offset it's 32years.

 

Now my rates aren't fixed and I'm going to get done in October. Also I do have the PV which will make a significant contribution through summer/ shoulders and I have the opportunity to add more (at additional cost). And I would get the benefits of UPS in a power outage etc. It's just can I justify these minor extras knowing it'll never pay back?

 

Oh and plus, Tesla are about to launch something new and exciting, but if we never bought on the basis that there's going to be a new model along soon, I'd never buy anything!

Edited August 19, 2022 by Wil

[Dan F]

1 hour ago, Wil said:

Hmm, so I have a quote from earlier in the year for 2xPW2, first one with gateway at £9250 installed, second add on at £7400 installed. The installer now has them in stock and my place in  the queue so it's decision time.

That's quick if you only ordered earlier this year!

 

1 hour ago, Wil said:

Not taking solar charging and into account for worst case scenario:

so for each kWh offset it's currently saving 7p. for 12kWh per day it's saving £0.84. for 365 days is £306 per year in saving if I purely offset E7 rates. so a payback of 54 years 😞 For 20kWh offset it's 32years.

It's hard to cacluate payback with the pricing being so crazy at the moment

 

One thing to think about is that you'll get most self-consumption (and therefore value) from the first powerwall. The second one will improve things of course, but from a self-consumption perspective, based on some of the modelling I tried to do, the additional increase in self-consumption % isn't that much when you add in the second powerwall.   In the winter the calculation is simpler, but it looks like you wouldn't get full value of the second powerwall in the winter either if your average daytime consumption is 16kW?  Maybe there is some load-shifting you can implement to reduce the day-time consumption <13.5kWh?

 

It's really hard to model this and noone knows whats going to happen with prices going foward, but in your situation i'd probably be thinking about going ahead with just one.  There are other options but if you have powerwall available it's still good from a sleekness and £/kWh perspective even with recent price rises I think.  Did you run your calclulatoin with a single PW?

 

[Wil]

Hey, I just checked my quote. It was generated in April '21, so actually not that quick!! Shows how long I've been faffing with this!

 

In winter I use up to 100kWh a day by the time my ASHPs have had their fill. Using up the full 26kWh capacity isn't an issue at all once the heating is on. I suppose this pushes my calculations to better payback for 2/3 of the year. The equations are always more complicated than any simplification but all of this should work to improve payback.

 

I was trying to be deliberately pessimistic in my calculations to allow for some enjoyment of bettering it 🙂 The solar will make a big difference much of the time and in summer I'd effectively expect to not need import for days at a time.

 

With the calcs above the capacity of a single PW is 13kWh so limits me to offsetting 91p per day so payback of 27 years.

[Thorfun]

@Wil do you have DNO approval for 2 x PW2s? I know that @pocster wanted to put a second PW2 in but the DNO wouldn't allow it so had to go with a hybrid PW2/StoreEdge solution which he's been having a few teething issues with.

 

I'm inclined to agree with @Dan F and suggest a single PW2 for now with only the 5kWp array and see if that works for you. if you find that you need the extra PW2 then take a look at it. £7400 pays for a lot of electricity especially when it's currently only 7p more than the E7 rate. if you had a larger PV array and could use the sun to fill both batteries then I'd say it would be more worth it.

 

ultimately, it's up to you! and whether you're completely hung up on the whole 'pay-back' period. personally I never considered that when I plumped for our 10.5kWp array and battery solution. it wasn't about pay-back period it's more about reducing my reliance on the grid.

[Wil]

Now there's a good question. I've asked the installer to ensure compliance and his approach is export limitation. While I know a lot about it, I'm outsourcing responsibility to the installer for this. I know he applied last year but I've seen none of the conversation between him and the DNO. The DNO gave me a G98 limit or upgrade the T/X option (survey and costings to be paid by me) when I asked previously.

 

Agree on £7.5k buying a lot of electricity! This is absolutely my dilemma. As above, in winter the battery would be empty by 10am 😞

 

One of the additional benefits of the PW I could see it that it works across 3phases. And will import on phases to balance export on another if need be. This obviously only works with net metering though and that's a complete unknown with my meter.

[Thorfun]

27 minutes ago, Wil said:

Now there's a good question. I've asked the installer to ensure compliance and his approach is export limitation. While I know a lot about it, I'm outsourcing responsibility to the installer for this. I know he applied last year but I've seen none of the conversation between him and the DNO. The DNO gave me a G98 limit or upgrade the T/X option (survey and costings to be paid by me) when I asked previously.

 

Agree on £7.5k buying a lot of electricity! This is absolutely my dilemma. As above, in winter the battery would be empty by 10am 😞

 

One of the additional benefits of the PW I could see it that it works across 3phases. And will import on phases to balance export on another if need be. This obviously only works with net metering though and that's a complete unknown with my meter.

so you have a 3 phase electricity connection? is your PV inverter 3-phase as well? I thought that if you have 3-phase electricity you can get 3.68kWp array on each phase so, in essence, 11kWp without G99 application.

 

we have a 3-phase electricity connection but I was lucky and the DNO approved our 10.5kWp array AND a Powerwall 2 on a single phase so I don't have the headache of net metering for running the house as that will be on a single phase. only issue might be if/when I get a 3-phase EV charger then I'd need to ensure that net metering was working.

[Nickfromwales]

3 hours ago, Wil said:

Hmm, so I have a quote from earlier in the year for 2xPW2, first one with gateway at £9250 installed, second add on at £7400 installed. The installer now has them in stock and my place in  the queue so it's decision time.

 

I've been um-ing and ah-ing about it for so damn long, I'm still trying to do the maths to work out if it's worth it. I have 5kWp of solar, but discounting that and charging the batteries at E7 rate (currently 20p) and discharging to cover day useage at 27p/kWh. Most days outside of summer I use 20-30kWh 12-20 if I don't charge the PHEV (which is done at E7 anyway) and excluding heating, which I can't hope to cover with battery storage.

 

Not taking solar charging and into account for worst case scenario:

so for each kWh offset it's currently saving 7p. for 12kWh per day it's saving £0.84. for 365 days is £306 per year in saving if I purely offset E7 rates. so a payback of 54 years 😞 For 20kWh offset it's 32years.

 

Now my rates aren't fixed and I'm going to get done in October. Also I do have the PV which will make a significant contribution through summer/ shoulders and I have the opportunity to add more (at additional cost). And I would get the benefits of UPS in a power outage etc. It's just can I justify these minor extras knowing it'll never pay back?

 

Oh and plus, Tesla are about to launch something new and exciting, but if we never bought on the basis that there's going to be a new model along soon, I'd never buy anything!

Factor in the date the batteries will expire  That throws it further off again.  
 

Im just about to pull the trigger on an 11,000w Iconica hybrid inverter ( 2x5500w strings ) and will then bolt on 9.6kw of AGM batteries and run for a year, with a view to adding probably the same again in battery size. 

[SteamyTea]

4 hours ago, Wil said:

but discounting that and charging the batteries at E7 rate (currently 20p) and discharging to cover day useage at 27p/kWh.

Do you know your day usage percentage.

Reading the meter will tell you, but only over the life of that meter.

I currently use about 70% during the night, but I only use 68p/days worth. That is a mean (summer) price of 23p/kWh.

Come winter, when I use 15 kWh/day, but 85% at night, leaving ~2 kWh/day at the 28p rate, that gives a mean value of 21p/kWh.

 

[Pocster]

Pw2+ only available in the states at the moment 

[Pocster]

3 hours ago, Thorfun said:

but the DNO wouldn't allow it so had to go with a hybrid PW2/StoreEdge solution which he's been having a few teething issues with.

I *think* I’ve got it all sussed now 

[Wil]

On 19/08/2022 at 12:21, Thorfun said:

so you have a 3 phase electricity connection? is your PV inverter 3-phase as well? I thought that if you have 3-phase electricity you can get 3.68kWp array on each phase so, in essence, 11kWp without G99 application.

 

we have a 3-phase electricity connection but I was lucky and the DNO approved our 10.5kWp array AND a Powerwall 2 on a single phase so I don't have the headache of net metering for running the house as that will be on a single phase. only issue might be if/when I get a 3-phase EV charger then I'd need to ensure that net metering was working.

It’s complicated. 🙂

 

I have 3 phase. Self installed 5kWp solar on phase C (along with House and most loads). Two massive 3phase ASHPs and a couple of 3ph bits of kit lying around which are very sporadic use. So net metering is currently a part of my life. I’ve just never been sure that my Elster A1140 meter is actually set up to do it.

 

I have approval (or rather G98 gives approval) for 3x3.68kWp but this still doesn’t cover a single PW, let alone 2.

 

@Nickfromwales Can you declare what your kit cost would be for the Iconica strings and AGM storage (if you were buying on the open market rather than any favours/ supplier rates that may apply)?

 

I’ve just checked and I’m actually on 20.7p Night, 30p Day. So assuming I could offset all 26kWh every day, just using offsetting would give £949 saving per year and therefore pay back the FIRST PW in 10 years. This is likely to only get better with upcoming tariffs, so assuming the installer can sort the G99 (he’s still looking for the paperwork!) then I’m pretty tempted.

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, Wil said:

This is likely to only get better with upcoming tariffs,

Or, in a year or two reduce again.

I don't think energy prices are a new normal.

I would cost out at 18p/kWh.

CfD prices for new RE generation are ~£35MWh.

[Wil]

Cost the difference of E7 and day at 18p/kWh or price the day unit of electricity at 18p/kWh?

[SteamyTea]

10 minutes ago, Wil said:

Cost the difference of E7 and day at 18p/kWh or price the day unit of electricity at 18p/kWh

Either would probably do. But safer to assume a rate of 18p/kWh.

One thing this latest energy crisis has shown us is that the 'challenger' energy companies, that perpetuated the myth about being ripped off, where talking bollocks. Hard to see how, Evan at £40/MWh wholesale, they could deliver at £120/MWh retail, to domestic customers.

I would be very wary of signing up to Octopus, their prices seem too good to be true, so probably are.

Market share and profitability are separate things.

Edited August 22, 2022 by SteamyTea

[Nickfromwales]

3 hours ago, Wil said:

 

@Nickfromwales Can you declare what your kit cost would be for the Iconica strings and AGM storage (if you were buying on the open market rather than any favours/ supplier rates that may apply)?

I’ll post some links when I get to narrow down a supplier with stock!! Photonic Universe is one contender. Prices are just a google search tbh. 
 

3 hours ago, Wil said:

So assuming I could offset all 26kWh every day, just using offsetting would give £949 saving per year and therefore pay back the FIRST PW in 10 years.

Just as the cells are at the end of their life because of the excessive cycling to get TO those figures……..,

[Wil]

3 hours ago, Nickfromwales said:

I’ll post some links when I get to narrow down a supplier with stock!! Photonic Universe is one contender. Prices are just a google search tbh. 
 

Just as the cells are at the end of their life because of the excessive cycling to get TO those figures……..,

But wouldn’t that be the case with any cells I chose? If I cycle them on offsetting for 10 years, that’s all I can expect from them?

 

So I’d need to install that 26kWh of capacity for under £10k to break even at current rates. As mentioned before, it’s not all about breaking even though. What I probably should look at is, what’s my option after 10 years- can I directly swap the cells in the PW or do I have to start from scratch. Hopefully by then V2G will be a functioning beast and I won’t need much home storage.

[Thorfun]

32 minutes ago, Wil said:

But wouldn’t that be the case with any cells I chose? If I cycle them on offsetting for 10 years, that’s all I can expect from them?

 

So I’d need to install that 26kWh of capacity for under £10k to break even at current rates. As mentioned before, it’s not all about breaking even though. What I probably should look at is, what’s my option after 10 years- can I directly swap the cells in the PW or do I have to start from scratch. Hopefully by then V2G will be a functioning beast and I won’t need much home storage.

if you don't go the Tesla PW route you could get 2 x Squirrel Pods and 25.6kWh battery storage for approx £14k +VAT (parts only and approximated by doubling a quote I had for a 12.8kWh system). that will give you 7kW charge/discharge rate which is better and cheaper than 2 x PW2s. 😉 

[Wil]

Interesting as an option, but as I'm due VAT, it makes the Squirrel Pods £16,800, so a whole £250 more then having someone install and certify. I was under the impression each PW could discharge at 5kW sustained, 7kW peak?

 

WPD have written and confirmed I can have 11.04kWp of generation and battery units (nil export) can be connected. Which my installer seems to be taking to mean infinite batteries as long as they don't export. Given that I can self consume it all a lot of the time and save it for a rainy day on others, this doesn't seem to be a drawback unless there's some sort of decent FIT for installed systems suddenly appearing.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Wil

[Pocster]

5 minutes ago, Wil said:

I was under the impression each PW could discharge at 5kW sustained, 7kW peak?

That is correct 

[Thorfun]

35 minutes ago, Wil said:

Interesting as an option, but as I'm due VAT, it makes the Squirrel Pods £16,800, so a whole £250 more then having someone install and certify. I was under the impression each PW could discharge at 5kW sustained, 7kW peak?

 

WPD have written and confirmed I can have 11.04kWp of generation and battery units (nil export) can be connected. Which my installer seems to be taking to mean infinite batteries as long as they don't export. Given that I can self consume it all a lot of the time and save it for a rainy day on others, this doesn't seem to be a drawback unless there's some sort of decent FIT for installed systems suddenly appearing.

you can get 2 x PW2s installed for £16550! wow. that's a good price. I was quoted £9500 inc VAT for one.

 

I'm definitely no expert but I would've thought that with the PWs having the ability to export the DNO wouldn't like that and does that also mean that you can't use them in a power cut? if not, have you considered DC batteries instead of the AC PW2?