Gas boiler ban looking doubtful

[SteamyTea]

11 minutes ago, ProDave said:

But it shows we were only able to phase out coal because of reduced demand, NOT because the coal generation has been replaced with an equal capacity of something else that is less polluting.

Gas, nuclear and petroleum have also gone down.

 

It certainly looks like total primary energy as it is in Mtoe.

1 Mtoe is 11.630 TWh

[Ferdinand]

4 hours ago, ProDave said:

That's an interesting graph, but must be total energy not just the electricity generation?

 

But it shows we were only able to phase out coal because of reduced demand, NOT because the coal generation has been replaced with an equal capacity of something else that is less polluting.

 

Yes -all energy demand, not production.

 

If you relate it to all generation, then one missing bit not shown on these total numbers is imports which have grown relatively over say 20  years.

[Pocster]

Reckon we should all burn poo . Generate tons of power based on this forum 

[epsilonGreedy]

On 29/08/2021 at 15:17, SteamyTea said:

Rather than speculating, here is some historical data from the ONS.

 

For the last 60 years, the UK has almost always (3 day week and other industrial action being the exception) managed to over supply by 7.5%, on average.

 

 

History, memory and decisions are formed through events, not averages. On average in my life the UK power network has been extremely reliable, if an unscheduled loss of mains power between 7am and 11pm for +30 minutes represents a memorable inconvenience, then I have experienced 268,000 half hour periods of stable mains power since the industrial unrest of the mid 70's but I still remember the 10 to 20 blackouts and candles in the 1970's.

 

As a first world nation we expect 100% mains power reliability and that reliability is tested and assessed over short periods. Your averages count for nothing when the power goes out and people get stuck in lifts, NHS operations are cancelled and food spoils in a defrosting freezer. The problem times for the UK power network will come in about 4 to 5 years and those pushing a fast track switch to renewables consistently evade the crunch point scenario. Once coal and half our nuclear capacity has gone what happens at 6pm on a November evening in 2025 when a high pressure system has settled over the north sea for days and turned off the wind? You have no answer beyond vague hand waving wibble about sucking power from all those plugged in Teslas and new age battery technology still being debugged in the research lab. 

[epsilonGreedy]

On 29/08/2021 at 18:48, Ferdinand said:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007132/DUKES_2021_Chapters_1_to_7.pdf

 

There are two reasons for that. We have off-shored making things to other countries and thus exported associated industrial power consumption and as the red section of your graph illustrates fuel economy in car engines was a big gain.

 

On 29/08/2021 at 18:48, Ferdinand said:

Given that  nuclear regulation is independent and statutory, I think that "Chernobyl incoming" is a little overwrought.

 

 

Power supply instability and blackouts will be political problems. The men from the ministry and local nuclear stations engineers will struggle to explain why a reactor cannot be run for a few more years.

 

The 45 year old Hinkley reactor should have been closed down 6 years ago but its scheduled closure was delayed until 2023. However it went offline last year for inspections of cracks in the graphite core. Now its operator has decided to close it earlier than the 2023 date but even so they are seeking permission to restart this aging sickly reactor for another final fling of 12 months of power generation because the cracks have been deemed to be tolerable.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/19/edf-confirms-hinkley-point-b-to-be-shutdown-earlier-than-planned

 

The power generation crunch is 4 years away but even now the precursors for a UK Chernobyl are developing. In 2010 the Government identified where the next 8 nuclear power stations should be build and yet by 2026 we will only have one of those new stations. 

[Gus Potter]

On 28/08/2021 at 17:29, newhome said:

We’ll get it introduced into Scotland no doubt now that the SNP have agreed a power sharing deal with the Green Party. They are now talking up a transition away from fossil fuels. Oh the irony given the prominence of the (over inflated) oil price in the SNP’s independence white paper. With so many here being employed in the oil and gas industries in jobs that are generally well paid (and thus contribute to significant tax income for Scotland) I wonder what effect that will have on Scotland’s economic policy. 

 

No good outcome as they are all into identity politics and some other stuff that does not fit with a modern democracy.

 

For a while I was an advocate for nuclear, great base load capacity until I designed an air cleaning plant housing structure for the decomissioning of Bradwell Power Station. The decomissioning costs are truly horrendous, not just for our kids but our kids kids if you want to do it in a safe way.

 

Hydrogen may well work out but there are many things to develop. Take the basic boiler burner, the flame speed is much faster. The molecules are smaller so we will get a good few accidents due to leaks. Yes we can extract hydrogen from natural gas but we generate some not so nice by products that we need to deal with.

 

Although much was made about Scotland being the "wind capital of the world" the reality is that the shallow off shore waters off the Southern part of the UK are currently more cost / carbon effective. For example the transmission losses are reduced that is why we build power stations close to the centre of population density. However Scotland has a lot of good water that could be pumped / syphoned using the earth's gravity to the South where there is the demand to produce the good grain etc. It's also about sharing our UK resources in a practical way in the short term.

 

There is no doubt that we will improve the efficiency of ground source heat pumps but if every one puts one in their back garden (if you are wealthy enough to afford a garden) then what will the Blackbirds eat? The grass won't grow, there will be fewer worms for the birds chicks? Chill the ground  and you invite the unforseen.

 

The reality for me is that unless you get China / USA to change,  anything we do needs to be done in such a way so as not to reduce our financial clout on the world stage. If we have no "buying power" then no one will listen to us?

 

It is going to take a brave set of polititians to grasp this nettle, we may, I think need to wait for something really bad to happen before we get real action rather than the gesture politics we see at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by Gus Potter
left handed typo

[SteamyTea]

8 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

The problem times for the UK power network will come in about 4 to 5 years

Come back in 4 to 5 years time and show us you were right.  Otherwise you are talking horseshit.

[epsilonGreedy]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Come back in 4 to 5 years time and show us you were right.  Otherwise you are talking horseshit.

 

 

Since I last posted a warning about the closure schedule of the UK's nuclear power stations the things have got worse faster than I predicted.

 

Nuclear core cracks and closure notices have been occurring faster than you scan say "horseshit".

 

Quote

EDF Energy, the owner and operator of the UK's operational nuclear fleet, said June 7 2021 that it was, with immediate effect, closing and moving to defueling...

 

Quote

Although EDF Energy noted that the plant, which started operations in 1983, "operated 10 years longer than its original design life," the closure still represents a further setback for the company's plans to continue operating its existing fleet of AGRs until at least the late 2020s.

 

Quote

EDF Energy has already announced plans to close its 990-MW Hunterston B plant in western Scotland and its 940-MW Hinkley Point B plant in western England more than one year early due to graphite cracking issues.

 

Quote

EDF Energy had repeatedly said publicly that it intended to operate Dungeness B until at least 2028 and potentially longer.

 

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/060721-edf-energy-permanently-closes-dungeness-b-nuclear-plant-in-southern-england

 

Quote

 

EDF’s announcement last week that it was closing the Dungeness B nuclear plant in Kent seven years early punched an unwelcome hole in Britain’s low-carbon power supplies. Now, The Times can reveal that further such blows are likely to follow as EDF admits that two other plants are also at risk of early closure.

The French energy giant is bracing for safety issues at Torness in Scotland and Heysham 2 near Lancaster that could force both to shut years before their planned 2030 closure dates.

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/edf-warning-of-plant-closures-limits-britains-nuclear-options-rgwgz67ps

Edited September 1, 2021 by epsilonGreedy

[Ferdinand]

10 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

There are two reasons for that. We have off-shored making things to other countries and thus exported associated industrial power consumption

 

 

 

Do you have some data to support that? It is a factor, but nothing like the total imo. And your other suggestion (better car fuel economy) has not changed in toto.

 

It is a beloved notion as a trump card for people who do not like it being pointed out how well the UK has done on these issues relative to the EU.

 

Quote

as the red section of your graph illustrates fuel economy in car engines was a big gain.

 

That's not true in total energy consumption. Total energy consumption by cars is the same as it was 20 years ago (with a switch from petrol to diesel).  There is a balance between 20% more cars since 2000, a lower mileage travelled per car, and somewhat improved fuel economy - which all ends up at a total change of around zero energy used. It's correct to say that the energy used per km has reduced. The calorific value of petrol and diesel is with 0.5% of each other.

 

The only thing that will reduce this total energy number may well be a switch to rail / active travel - since electric cars tend to be comparative tanks.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928350/2020_Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK__ECUK_.pdf

 

 

 

Quote

Power supply instability and blackouts will be political problems. The men from the ministry and local nuclear stations engineers will struggle to explain why a reactor cannot be run for a few more years.

 

The 45 year old Hinkley reactor should have been closed down 6 years ago but its scheduled closure was delayed until 2023. However it went offline last year for inspections of cracks in the graphite core. Now its operator has decided to close it earlier than the 2023 date but even so they are seeking permission to restart this aging sickly reactor for another final fling of 12 months of power generation because the cracks have been deemed to be tolerable.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/19/edf-confirms-hinkley-point-b-to-be-shutdown-earlier-than-planned

 

The power generation crunch is 4 years away but even now the precursors for a UK Chernobyl are developing. In 2010 the Government identified where the next 8 nuclear power stations should be build and yet by 2026 we will only have one of those new stations. 

 

I don't buy this. I have already pointed out that we have the best part of 2 GW of gas based generating capacity mothballed. Plus we can flex up imports if necessary. Plus our wind resource is on track to treble by 2030. Plus demand is falling.

 

Given that wind now generates more than nuclear, and is set to treble, I am not very worried about a partial reduction in nuclear. 

 

Ferdinand

[epsilonGreedy]

23 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Given that wind now generates more than nuclear, and is set to treble, I am not very worried about a partial reduction in nuclear. 

 

 

When the wind stops during a mid winter high pressure system over the UK what happens?

 

It is misleading to describe the pending reduction in nuclear capacity as partial. Only Sizewell looks likely to generate power until the end of the 2020's, the rest are operating beyond their original retirement dates and being closed sooner rather than later as inspection programmes discover the extent of the graphite core cracking. Further delays to the Hinkley C build are currently being blamed on Covid as a result we could see the loss of 4 to 5GW of capacity before it comes online.

 

Look at the nuke closure dates in the following pictorial calendar and also note how far beyond their original closure dates our aging reactors are currently running.

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-lifetime-management

 

On 01/09/2021 at 09:39, Ferdinand said:

I don't buy this. I have already pointed out that we have the best part of 2 GW of gas based generating capacity mothballed. Plus we can flex up imports if necessary. Plus our wind resource is on track to treble by 2030. Plus demand is falling.

 

 

As I told you all 2 years ago 2025 is the crunch date, how many candles will the population of the UK burn between 2025 and 2030? 

 

 

[Ferdinand]

5 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

When the wind stops during a mid winter high pressure system over the UK what happens?

 

How many days has that happened to the whole country on?

 

Quote

It is misleading to describe the pending reduction in nuclear capacity as partial. Only Sizewell looks likely to generate power until the end of the 2020's, the rest are operating beyond their original retirement dates and being closed sooner rather than later as inspection programmes discover the extent of the graphite core cracking. Further delays to the Hinkley C build are currently being blamed on Covid as a result we could see the loss of 4 to 5GW of capacity before it comes online.

 

Look at the nuke closure dates in the following pictorial calendar and also note how far beyond their original closure dates our aging reactors are currently running.

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-lifetime-management

 

 

As I told you all 2 years ago 2025 is the crunch date, how many candles will the population of the UK burn between 2025 and 2030? 

 

 

 

OK. The numbers. 

 

If all the nuclear powerstations except Sizewell close, loss of generating capacity = 6 GW.

Currently 2 gas fired power stations mothballed = 1.6GW

Wind farms under construction due to come on stream between 2021 and 2026, 75% by 2023 = 5GW

Wind farms proposed under the current round due to be commissioned by 2025 = 4GW (And I am not sure that is all of them).

Plus demand is falling.

Plus we have a number of interconnectors to I think France / Netherlands / Norway, which can service around 10% of electricity demand if needed.

 

The situation is radically different to 2 years ago, and I don't see much of a threat now.

 

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_gas_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_offshore_wind_farms_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom)

[SteamyTea]

16 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Currently 2 gas fired power stations mothballed = 1.6GW

That is just mothballed, there will be some on standby, either at spinning reserve or hot spinning reserve, so not so bad.  We could also, if need, convert some old coal fired places, that have not been fully decommissioned yet, to biomass.

There is also a lot of standby diesel generation.

 

But a word of caution.

17 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Wind farms under construction due to come on stream between 2021 and 2026, 75% by 2023 = 5GW

That is installed capacity, not generation, so not directly comparable to nuclear, which has a very good capacity factor.  A GW of nuclear is probably worth 2 GW of wind, to be on the safe side.

[Ferdinand]

27 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

That is just mothballed, there will be some on standby, either at spinning reserve or hot spinning reserve, so not so bad.  We could also, if need, convert some old coal fired places, that have not been fully decommissioned yet, to biomass.

There is also a lot of standby diesel generation.

 

But a word of caution.

That is installed capacity, not generation, so not directly comparable to nuclear, which has a very good capacity factor.  A GW of nuclear is probably worth 2 GW of wind, to be on the safe side.

 

Correct.

 

 

[Gone West]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

Plus we have a number of interconnectors to I think France / Netherlands / Norway, which can service around 10% of electricity demand if needed.

The Norway link connects this year but the Belgium link came online in 2019 through Sandwich when I still lived in Kent.

 

[epsilonGreedy]

3 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

But a word of caution.

That is installed capacity, not generation, so not directly comparable to nuclear, which has a very good capacity factor.  A GW of nuclear is probably worth 2 GW of wind, to be on the safe side.

 

 

Technically known as the "capacity factor" which was 26% for all of Europe's wind farms in 2019. The capacity factor for offshore wind is better at 38%, presumably because the wind is not disrupted by local land topology. So at the moment best divide the UK's headline capacity by 3.5 improving to 3 by the end of decade.

 

https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/about-wind/statistics/WindEurope-Annual-Statistics-2019.pdf

 

However this factor is an annual average. When a high pressure is sitting over the north sea I guess the point in time capacity factor will drop to 5% on some critical days.

[epsilonGreedy]

2 hours ago, Gone West said:

The Norway link connects this year but the Belgium link came online in 2019 through Sandwich when I still lived in Kent.

 

 

Viking Link is being dug through the countryside 2 miles from me and will add another 1.4GW of European interconnect capacity with Denmark. The problem is we are heavily dependent on the existing interconnects and the UK already pulls 4 to 5GW across these links during high demand.

 

I read a report today that warns we should not depend on these links because the climatic conditions that would stress the UK's generation capacity could also affect Holland, Denmak and Germany. If they are struggling to keep the lights on will they be prepared to send GWs to us?

[epsilonGreedy]

4 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Currently 2 gas fired power stations mothballed = 1.6GW

 

 

I think this is a reference to the two stations owned by a business currently in receivership? This highlights another problem that gas generation capacity is looking dodgy in the medium term because of under investment caused by a confused national policy.

 

4 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Plus demand is falling.

 

 

It was but with EVs and ASHPs that fall is likely to reverse. With the latest Government u-turn on domestic gas boilers we can atleast now assume the rise in demand will be less steep.

 

4 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

The situation is radically different to 2 years ago, and I don't see much of a threat now.

 

 

Indeed the situation is worse now that the nuclear station closure schedule has been shortened and there is likely to be more news form the Scottish stations.

[SteamyTea]

6 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

capacity factor

 

2 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Technically known as the "capacity factor"

Are you just restating what I said?

 

2 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

was 26% for all of Europe's wind farms in 2019. The capacity factor for offshore wind is better at 38%,

Numbers are for the feeble minded remember, you can sort all the worlds problems out with words and made up scenarios if it suits you beliefs better.

[Ferdinand]

2 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

I think this is a reference to the two stations owned by a business currently in receivership? This highlights another problem that gas generation capacity is looking dodgy in the medium term because of under investment caused by a confused national policy.

 

 

It was but with EVs and ASHPs that fall is likely to reverse. With the latest Government u-turn on domestic gas boilers we can atleast now assume the rise in demand will be less steep.

 

 

Indeed the situation is worse now that the nuclear station closure schedule has been shortened and there is likely to be more news form the Scottish stations.

 

Demand is forecast to start rising from around 2026 in the latest information from the BEIS.

https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2020/nov-2020/chart-of-the-week-uk-electricity-projections

 

Which is quite logical if we remember that under 1% of UK cars are pure electric, plus whatever use is electric from hybrids, and it will not change significantly as an overall percentage for at least another 5 years given the % of the car stock being replaced with electric. And that things like ASHP compulsion for new build (which add less than 1% to the housing stock each year) do not even *start* until 2025.

 

 

 

Anyhoo things to do.

 

F

[epsilonGreedy]

15 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Are you just restating what I said?

 

 

Apparently so, I clocked your claim of 50% and though that's strange @SteamyTeais not familiar with typical industry capacity factor numbers. The real-world capacity factor is lower than the official 26% to 38% range because when the load factor graph is overlaid, the result is wind farm operators being paid to feather their turbine blades on a windy winters night in Scotland in order not to over supply and fry the national grid.

 

As I write this on a relatively breezy day in northern Europe just 8% of demand is being produced by wind power and in the UK the figure is 6%

 

https://windeurope.org/about-wind/daily-wind/

[epsilonGreedy]

18 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Demand is forecast to start rising from around 2026 in the latest information from the BEIS.

 

 

Your acceptance of my claim represents some progress. And thank you for posting a graphic which illustrate what I have been saying about 2025 being the crunch year.

 

What surprises me is how undeveloped the debate is in this country. In Germany my claims about the pending supply problems are recognized and quantified issue. Serious people have modeled the vast oversupply in headline renewable capacity that is required to keep the lights when the wind stops. The debate even has a catchy name = "Dark Doldrums".

 

The degree of ignorance in this country is startling but not surprising for a failing State.

[Pocster]

[SteamyTea]

5 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Apparently so, I clocked your claim of 50% and though that's strange @SteamyTeais not familiar with typical industry capacity factor numbers.

Now go back and see what capacity factors I was comparing, before you get all high and mighty.

[epsilonGreedy]

On 02/09/2021 at 15:04, Ferdinand said:

How many days has that happened to the whole country on?

 

 

There is surprisingly little data on wind generation capacity during slow UK weather but I eventually found this covering the winter of 2020/21. The graph highlights periods when the capacity of wind generation dipped below 20% for a day or more. A quick scan of the graph suggests 4 sub 10% events last winter.

 

https://www.drax.com/press_release/experts-issue-weather-warning-for-britains-electricity-grid/

 

[Ferdinand]

Thanks.

 

Interesting.