So how ready is the UK housing stock for this...

[Bitpipe]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/10/global-heating-london-similar-climate-barcelona-2050

 

Many of us recent builders have realised that the most challenging issue is not keeping the house warm in winter but keeping it cool year round.

 

The accompanying water shortage is also going to be a real challenge - my limited experience with RWH (3500l) shows that we just don't get enough rainfall in the SE to make it sustainable.

[daiking]

Hello Mr Climate Crisis, let me introduce you to Mr Open Borders.

 

let me guess, any solutions will involve making the rest of the country poorer to make the South East bubble even more unsustainable?

[Bitpipe]

Just now, daiking said:

Hello Mr Climate Crisis, let me introduce you to Mr Open Borders.

 

let me guess, any solutions will involve making the rest of the country poorer to make the South East bubble even more unsustainable?

 

Not sure where you're going with that but let's keep the conversation focused on quality of housing stock and preparedness for an increase in temperature.

[daiking]

18 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Not sure where you're going with that but let's keep the conversation focused on quality of housing stock and preparedness for an increase in temperature.

 

I’m going where the article took me. London is going to get hot and they are not prepared. We all know that 99% of home in this country are poor quality and yet this isn’t worth journalistic attention unless it directly affects those in the London bubble.

 

I look forward to reading about workable solutions that are politically acceptable.

[scottishjohn]

Its simple  the s/e can buy water from the new independant country of Scotland .LOL

and improve and use canal system to transport it down to them 

seriously though

its time the money grabbing water authorities in england started to invest ,like the victorians did, in new reservoirs etc and not just keep trying to suck it out of the ground and rivers .

plenty of scope with the wealth of the S/E to pay for it

lets face it is a different country down  really 

you only have to look at spending on transport compared to other regions .

Or maybe just stop building more houses + commercial property  down there and spread it over the whole country ?

that would solve a host of problems at the same time 

 

[Jeremy Harris]

My guess is that the initial changes we'll see will be the more widespread use of air conditioning systems, a bit like pretty much the whole of the USA.  In many ways, a comparison with the USA is probably quite useful, as homes there have had to deal with higher temperature extremes than we ever see ever since the place was settled.  When I was working in Southern Maryland we'd get sub-zero (°C) winter temperatures and summer temperatures that were often well over 30°C.  The area I was working was just over the river from the location of the first English settlements in the USA in Virginia, and I can really understand how those early colonies nearly didn't make it, largely because of the climate.

[ProDave]

I left the SE 16 years ago, because I had long held the view it was over priced, over crowded, and a generally miserable place.  It served me well for the first half of my life providing employment, but I wanted somewhere better.

 

I now live somewhere much nicer, with a climate some may not like but we never get the stiffling heatwaves we got from time to time down south.  We have much more space per person, housing does not need to be so densely packed. Traffic jams are almost non existant, the people are nicer and the scenery fantastic.

 

The one thing the UK needs to learn, is we can't continue the desire for so many people to crowd into the one corner that is already over populated and struggles at times to meet the water needs etc.

 

The state of much of the UK housing stock is another issue.  I don't see an easy solution to that one, but in the SE it could be that unless housing stock is radically upgraded, we could be using as much energy to cool houses in summer as we are in heating them in winter.

 

Re the US climate, I spent 4 weeks in Chicago one summer and the heat was stifling, you did not want to be out of an air conditioned building or car for very long.  Then I went back for 2 weeks in December. The cold was penetrating, and you really didn't want to be outside for very long. At least they seemed to know how to cope with regular heavy snowfall.  I guess there must be a short period in spring and autumn (fall) when you might get some "nice" weather, but quite why anyone would choose to live in a climate like that beats me.

[scottishjohn]

1 minute ago, daiking said:

Not sure where you're going with that but let's keep the conversation focused on quality of housing stock and preparedness for an increase in temperature

If houses were like every other thing you buy   

EG it gets old and worn out --so it drops in value 

then it would be simple and viable to replace it 

I don,t see that ever happening 

 you could always just move out of this hot dessert climate to more temperate areas ?

[ProDave]

6 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

If houses were like every other thing you buy   

EG it gets old and worn out --so it drops in value 

then it would be simple and viable to replace it 

I don,t see that ever happening 

 you could always just move out of this hot dessert climate to more temperate areas ?

We now pin an EPC number on houses when selling them.  Buyers on the whole take no notice of that whatsoever, apart from Landlords who cannot now let the very poorest so won't buy those.  You would think buyers just might take note of the EPC and prefer to buy a better one that costs less to heat, and that might start to value the poorest of the housing stock at a lower price?

[daiking]

13 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

My guess is that the initial changes we'll see will be the more widespread use of air conditioning systems, a bit like pretty much the whole of the USA.  In many ways, a comparison with the USA is probably quite useful, as homes there have had to deal with higher temperature extremes than we ever see ever since the place was settled.  When I was working in Southern Maryland we'd get sub-zero (°C) winter temperatures and summer temperatures that were often well over 30°C.  The area I was working was just over the river from the location of the first English settlements in the USA in Virginia, and I can really understand how those early colonies nearly didn't make it, largely because of the climate.

 

Assuming that no one would bother with passive measures such as insulation (which is probably fair), how much extra electrical demand would that require and realistically what size of individual solar array would you need to run a small domestic A/C set-up? Let’s assume that I mean that’s  2 of those single room units you’re getting.

[scottishjohn]

thats the point --when i was going to sell current house i was told to remove solar thermal panels ,as it would reduce value of house???

cos people worry about complicated systems  with that mentality coming from estate agents ,which has to born out by experience 

what chance 

I know of someone who got 20k knocked of a house price cos it had solar pv on roof and deemed it was as a problem and could maybe cause roof leaks 

and was advised by estate agent to ask for the discount because it had solar PV on roof --

 

[Jeremy Harris]

6 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

Assuming that no one would bother with passive measures such as insulation (which is probably fair), how much extra electrical demand would that require and realistically what size of individual solar array would you need to run a small domestic A/C set-up? Let’s assume that I mean that’s  2 of those single room units you’re getting.

 

The unit that I'm in the process of fitting, according to the paperwork that came with it, has an annual energy use of 153 kWh, so two of them would use about 306 kWh per year.  Flat out, when cooling, each unit needs about 780 W, so about 1,560 W for two.  A pretty small PV array would cover the power and energy requirements for a couple of these, probably around 2 kWp to 3 kWp should do the job OK.

[daiking]

4 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

 

The unit that I'm in the process of fitting, according to the paperwork that came with it, has an annual energy use of 153 kWh, so two of them would use about 306 kWh per year.  Flat out, when cooling, each unit needs about 780 W, so about 1,560 W for two.  A pretty small PV array would cover the power and energy requirements for a couple of these, probably around 2 kWp to 3 kWp should do the job OK.

Is that about half the size of a typical UK set-up?

[Jeremy Harris]

Just now, daiking said:

Is that about half the size of a typical UK set-up?

 

 

Between half and three quarters of the capacity of a typical UK 4 kWp system, yes, so not that difficult to install.  Still expensive though, if installed professionally. 

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, daiking said:

Is that about half the size of a typical UK set-up?

 

Yep and the use patterns match when the sun is out. So a good option.

 

1 hour ago, scottishjohn said:

seriously though

its time the money grabbing water authorities in england started to invest ,like the victorians did, in new reservoirs etc and not just keep trying to suck it out of the ground and rivers .

 

 

 

They have and do invest heavily; according to OFWAT somewhere north of 100bn since privatisation. Quality is massively better than before. I like the public regulation / private management model because it removes conflicts of interest. In the first few years investment doubled - but there would be a level of politics in that.

  

On the SE, they have a huge reservoir project on the stocks called Abingdon Reservoir, Nimbies and CPRE notwithstanding, which would be the largest in the UK. It is basically ready to go when needed, subject to Planning. About 10 years ago the Govt decided it was not yet the best option. I can recall documentaries about preparations in eg purchasing property back before the millennium.

 

I think that reduce would be a better option for the South. Uk water use levels are 150l per person per day - Germany is about 120l. Universal metering would be a good option, as would further use of rainwater, and further leak reduction. That 20% alone should be worth some years - though I am not sure what the rainfall reduction profile will be.

 

In performance on investment and leakages, the privatised parts of the UK water industry seem to do better than the nonprofit publicly owned. Not my normal source, but the numbers seem right and comparative figures are hard to come by.

 

F

Edited July 11, 2019 by Ferdinand

[Bitpipe]

29 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

I’m going where the article took me. London is going to get hot and they are not prepared. We all know that 99% of home in this country are poor quality and yet this isn’t worth journalistic attention unless it directly affects those in the London bubble.

 

I look forward to reading about workable solutions that are politically acceptable.

 

Ah I see.

 

Well if the SE becomes climatically unpleasant to live in (wrt to the existing housing stock) and the midlands / north becomes the target zone then you may well see a migration over time

 

 

 

[daiking]

3 hours ago, JSHarris said:

 

 

Between half and three quarters of the capacity of a typical UK 4 kWp system, yes, so not that difficult to install.  Still expensive though, if installed professionally. 

 

So, taking a stab at a very good value deal - £6000 to install a typical solar array and fit 2 split a/c units to 4 million  homes in south east puts us at £24Bn. Over 10-20 years is not a lot per year.

 

But this solution only makes things more comfortable for people it doesn’t do much to help solve the underlying problem.

[daiking]

32 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Ah I see.

 

Well if the SE becomes climatically unpleasant to live in (wrt to the existing housing stock) and the midlands / north becomes the target zone then you may well see a migration over time

 

 

 

 

Climatically unpleasant for whom?

 

What you would expect in this situation is for the ‘southern softies’ to migrate north and people from warmer climes to move into the south east of England because it’s not actually that warm for them. Would also be cheaper than all those A/C units.

[Bitpipe]

13 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

Climatically unpleasant for whom?

 

What you would expect in this situation is for the ‘southern softies’ to migrate north and people from warmer climes to move into the south east of England because it’s not actually that warm for them. Would also be cheaper than all those A/C units.

 

Exactly, I am a self confessed climate refugee (in this case 20 years of NI Atlantic coast weather) so find the SE balmy in comparison. So we'll colonise from the midlands up and abandon the SE to the tourism industry (will be too hot to go abroad). You northerners will need to move in with the Scots  - plenty of room for you all in the highlands.

 

 

[daiking]

28 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Exactly, I am a self confessed climate refugee (in this case 20 years of NI Atlantic coast weather) so find the SE balmy in comparison. So we'll colonise from the midlands up and abandon the SE to the tourism industry (will be too hot to go abroad). You northerners will need to move in with the Scots  - plenty of room for you all in the highlands.

 

 

 

If this prediction comes true, the UK will already have become one of the most populous nations in Europe and there will be tens of millions of climate refugees. 

 

I’m not sure that ‘moving north a bit’ is going to cut it.

[SteamyTea]

If we just put PV on our roofs, that would reduce the energy getting though by about 20%.

We could also put reflective film on windows, probably cut out 30%.

 

Flooding is probably a bigger risk than drought, but personally I can't see London getting the same climate, or even the same weather as Barcelona.

London is in a plain, Barcelona is coastal, but the Med, which is a unique sea.  Barcelona is also surrounded by hills.

Worth remembering that Barcelona had a lot of infrastructure changes brought about by the Olympics, London did not.

[Jeremy Harris]

If, as in this report, Edinburgh's climate becomes more like Paris, then, given that Paris got to around 40°C a couple of weeks ago, it looks as if Edinburgh could get quite toasty.  However, as @SteamyTea says, what actually happens is likely to be a lot different, due to local conditions.  The same report says that Leeds will get like Melbourne, Australia, but that's pretty much ignoring the fact that Melbourne is a coastal city and Leeds is inland, amongst other factors.

[SteamyTea]

For a laugh I have just looked at my external temperature, it is 21.75°C at 11/07/2019 13:47:24

What are other people reading for a similar time?

[Jeremy Harris]

3 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

For a laugh I have just looked at my external temperature, it is 21.75°C at 11/07/2019 13:47:24

What are other people reading for a similar time?

 

Right now it's 24.3°C outside on the North (shaded) face of our house.  11/7/2119, 13:53 GMT

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

Right now it's 24.3 outside on the North (shaded) face of our house.  11/7/2119, 14:53

So 2.55°C different for 200 km West, similar altitude I think (you may be a bit higher), but 25 miles from coast.

Edited July 11, 2019 by SteamyTea