Its interesting when you read a Cool Energy ASHP datasheet, the broad range of outputs based on outside temp and how much things change. So pretty much the true reflection on how a heat pump operates.
This is somewhat hidden by a lot of manufacturers which software gag the output. My heat pump max output varies by less than 0.5kW from + 20 outside to -15 at 30 Deg flow and it similar at 60 Deg flow. This is nothing to with physics, just software capping output as the outside air temp increases. But modulation is limited at 4.5kW (from 6kW nameplate) - pretty rubbish. It is the minimum modulation when you need it, that can kill overall efficiency. Stick in an over sized heat pump, you start to exaggerated any issues a correctly sized unit already has.