Has the PV market blown up?

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, LA3222 said:

Stop trying to link problems to Brexit.

A bit of 'post purchase justification' going on here.

[JohnMo]

Think there may be a broken record that keeps saying "if it wasn't for Brexit..."

[Dillsue]

2 hours ago, LA3222 said:

All of this is to do with the collapse of supply chains, as evidenced by the fact that there is a severe shortage of pretty much everything at the minute.

 

Are all the shortages due to collapse of supply chains, or just unprecedented increase in demand? AFAIK there was no issue last year with getting hold of solar kit and I had no problem getting kit earler this year.

 

In terms of PV, seems to me that when people got their 30 day notice of eleccy price hikes and the sun came out, both at the beginning of March, the penny dropped that PV would be a good thing and lots jumped on the PV bandwagon. Likely all settle down in the autumn but not really a Brexit/covid/supply chain issue as it all seemed to be working last year??

[LA3222]

56 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

A bit of 'post purchase justification' going on here.

Not at all. It would be naive to suggest it isn't a factor, equally it is patently obvious that the total collapse of supply chains and the war are the primary causal factors. The impact of brexit is small potatoes next to those shenanigans. 

[SteamyTea]

25 minutes ago, LA3222 said:

equally it is patently obvious that the total collapse of supply chains

So all that government aid used, in part, didn't happen.

A major part to the arguement about leaving the EU was to allow the UK to trade nimbly and quickly to a changing commercial environment. We are not exactly seeing that happen. What we have seen is Sterling loose value against major currencies, delays in goods being delivered, reduced workforce in some areas of construction, etc etc.

What we have not seen, nor did we see in the run up to fully leaving was a boost to the economy. That reduction in economic power, and the associated drop in business confidence, lays firmly at the feet of BREXIT. 

Blame other issues as much as you like, but deep down you know that being commercially isolated from our biggest market is hurting, and will hurt for the rest of our lives.

End of.

[Dillsue]

11 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Blame other issues as much as you like, but deep down you know that being commercially isolated from our biggest market is hurting, and will hurt for the rest of our lives.

End of.

Without checking just now, I understood that the EU only amounts to circa 40% of our trade, so non EU trade is a bigger market.

There was a load of hot air over additional paperwork which caused delays a while back but Im not sure theres still significant problems, attributable to Brexit.

[LA3222]

1 minute ago, Dillsue said:

Are all the shortages due to collapse of supply chains, or just unprecedented increase in demand? AFAIK there was no issue last year with getting hold of solar kit and I had no problem getting kit earler this year.

 

In terms of PV, seems to me that when people got their 30 day notice of eleccy price hikes and the sun came out, both at the beginning of March, the penny dropped that PV would be a good thing and lots jumped on the PV bandwagon. Likely all settle down in the autumn but not really a Brexit/covid/supply chain issue as it all seemed to be working last year??

I would say it is a combination of all of the above. Folks don't talk about how China locked down the country recently and are hell bent on a zero covid strategy - that seems to have flown under the radar and was likely the main driver in the last few months.

 

Perfect storm - supply, demand ....one goes down, the other goes up and we're suddenly buggered.

 

This is not limited to PV, supply

[JamesP]

22 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

End of.

 

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, LA3222 said:

 

Perfect storm - supply, demand ....one goes down, the other goes up and we're suddenly buggered

Almost, but alternatives and replacements come into play.

Picking the right substitute is the hard part.

[LA3222]

28 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

So all that government aid used, in part, didn't happen.

A major part to the arguement about leaving the EU was to allow the UK to trade nimbly and quickly to a changing commercial environment. We are not exactly seeing that happen. What we have seen is Sterling loose value against major currencies, delays in goods being delivered, reduced workforce in some areas of construction, etc etc.

What we have not seen, nor did we see in the run up to fully leaving was a boost to the economy. That reduction in economic power, and the associated drop in business confidence, lays firmly at the feet of BREXIT. 

Blame other issues as much as you like, but deep down you know that being commercially isolated from our biggest market is hurting, and will hurt for the rest of our lives.

End of.

Pretty sure Brexit happened around the same time as Covid kicked in, then a war which although not global, is certainly having a global impact.

 

If you want to stick your head in the sand and imagine that Brexit is the biggest pain point or that everyone else in the world is tickety boo right now, that is your perogative.

 

I know suppliers that stopped trading in the UK just after December 31st, guess what, several months later that trade resumed once they had learnt and understood what additional hoops needed to be jumped through.

 

Trade will do what trade does regardless of paperwork. If the financial justification is there, people will make it happen.

 

It's a bit boring when folks take the lazy option of laying all woes at the feet of Brexit.

Edited June 15, 2022 by LA3222

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, LA3222 said:

It's a bit boring when folks take the lazy option of laying at woes at the feet of Brexit

That is a bit rich coming from someone that blames war and COVID, but not their choices, for the problems.

[Temp]

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/20/polysilicon-maker-predicts-5-year-shortage-of-solar-raw-material/.

 

Polysilicon maker predicts 5-year shortage of solar raw material

 

TBEA-owned Xinte Energy says it cannot produce polysilicon quickly enough to meet demand and wants shareholders to back its bid to quadruple its manufacturing capacity by mid 2024.

 

Snip..

 

Pointing to booming global demand for solar, Xinte said even with a 100,000-ton polysilicon fab in Inner Mongolia due to be completed this year, the more than 1 million tons worth of solar wafer orders it has received from companies such as Longi and JA Solar mean it has locked up sales for three to five years.

 

[MrTWales]

It's a tough one. Based on trying (and generally failing) to get quotes, and what they are, I did ponder about waiting for a year or two but I wonder if things will get worse before they get better (esp with whatever is happening in October). My thinking now is delaying could cost almost £2k of extra bills over a couple of years and I'd doubt that the price will reduce by more than that, even if installers are suddenly scratching around for work in a couple of years. Then, if the market needs a boost and some kind of sensible feed-in tarrif is offered then I assume the sector would become manic (?).

[Kelvin]

On 15/06/2022 at 08:58, LA3222 said:

Not at all. It would be naive to suggest it isn't a factor, equally it is patently obvious that the total collapse of supply chains and the war are the primary causal factors. The impact of brexit is small potatoes next to those shenanigans. 

True but it’s a problem that uniquely impacts the UK. Triple whammy if you will.