Beelbeebub

£1,300 or less is exactly where we should be aiming! If the rules allowed that to be stuck on a little flat and run for the same cost as a gas boiler (however that is arranged) uptake would soar and heating related CO2 would start to fall (and fall further as people optimised the systems with experience)

Yeah I've seen those, I think they are being flogged off cheap because the next gen has been released. Basically clearing the decks. But it does underline that they don't need to cost a fortune. Also Samsung's need a Samsung controller which is £400(?!). But IIRC they are the.moat bare bones units, no pump, no expansion vessel, just a HP with a plate heatexchanger. If it had an "open source" control system so you didn't need to use a manufacturer specific one. It would be pretty close to my concept. (Also, paint the damn things black!)

Basic HPs for split Aircon, millions and millions. You can get a 5kw unit for well under £1k. And 8k won't be much more. But stick the monoblock stuff on..... Much lower volumes and much higher prices. A 5kw vaillant is about 4k. Ok, it's well made but where didn't he £3k it costs over a 5kw Aircon unit go? Diamond Heat exchangers? I think a bare bones 5kw monoblock could be under 2k eventually. And yeah market rate for elec would help. Anything that drops the unit price for heating elec. But the difference system they use does drive renewable generation install. So that does need to be considered. The only down side to measuring heat and subsidising is the extra parts needed to do that, but the potential benefits are pretty good when it comes to driving post install optimization (and user awareness)

But the problem is relying on the install to keep the noise to acceptable levels will *always* result in problems, the upfront planning to get the noise levels down, the installation being done correctly and the process missing edge cases (eg line of sight) mean the process will be more costly and fail more. It would be better to make sure only HPs that are quiet in the first place are sold. Of course this will require manufacturers to put in more effort, and there may be compromises with performance. We also need a more general national conversation about noise. Nobody has the right to absolute silence. There ahs to be a level of noise below which you can't complain. Do I complain about my neighbours trees rustling in the wind? We have constant road noise at a low level and sometimes high when someone with a suspect exhaust blasts past. I think noise is another stick that the foot dragging lobby has bigged up to beat HPs with and slow uptake. To listen to some people they think a HP next door is equivalent living next to Heathrow.

The point is to get the price of the install down to 5 or 6k so the 5k subsidy really does make it affordable for the normal person. I think the Units should end up around 4k or less as the volume increases and the install 1-2k (2 men 2 days). The key is to not have to upgrade and replace lots of stuff, especially the cylinder! an unvented cylinder is easily north of 1k, more like 2 by the time you've added all the extras. then another 2 men for a day to remove the old one and install new one (assuming no redecoration!). You could burn most of the 5k subsidy on the cylinder swap alone! I agree about the opening up the installs. And yes, low flow temp training, but not absolutely mandate them. that route leads to replacing pipes, rads, cylinder etc. They are definitely a nice to have and crucial for maximum efficiency. Now we have HPs that can achieve high flow temps at reasonable efficiency (which we didn't used to have) Vaillant r290 units can hit 2.5 at rated output at 55C which should do most places heating and can hit 2.0 at 65 to use the existing water cylinder. The issue with the smart meter for the HP with different unit pricing (which was my first thought) is I can see lots of fraud. Lots of people wiring the rest of the house up etc. It also doesn't give any steer on the actual cop. That's crucial for the feedback loop to the customer so they can see the gap coming up when the subsidy runs out.

One idea just occured. If each install had a subsidy pot, lets say £5k, upto 3k of which can be used for the install and any remaining to subsidise any shortfall between the price it would have been in gas and the actual. After 5 years any left over would be split between the bill payer and the installer. Give an installer and householder an incentive to do a good job? Not go overboard on the install.

I mean I guess it makes sense, "PD rights are for installs to a certain standard. The industry body will set out that standard" I don't directly disagree with that approach. The problem is that the standard is too restrictive and ends up hindering uptake. Anecdotally they have failed to prevent poor, noisy installs. If MCS was altered to be less restrictive and more "good enough" focused they could tackle the issues separately. The noise issue could be tackled by a requirement for a "hush mark", basically a set of noise limits (and testing) that HPs have to meet to get the mark. Same as windows needing kitemark for various glass safety standards. The performance issue is partly solved by technology. If a "performance mark" were needed, which meant the HPnhad to have a certain performance envelope, specifically 2.5COP at a given flow temp (say 65c) and rated output (and noise!) during certain external conditions. If a HP can achieve that then it can keep someone warm and burning less gas (in the power plant) than a boiler even if it doesn't save them money. So your "good standard" requirement becomes "use an approved HP". The final bit is the gov have to come up with the "price guarantee" scheme to prevent bill shock and align it with schemes and subsidies to bring installs that are below the final (ie. Above the 2.5 figure) efficency required up to that level, 12 month post install tuning using accumulated data, radiator scrappage schemes, more insulation etc.

Kinda.

Ahem, there might be specific spots on the building that a box can be put and not be visible at all. It's a bit tight for the larger monoblock HPs, which is why I'm thinking the external boxes need to be as small as possible to help with retrofit. But again, planning rules which make installing solar panels, heatpumps, carchargers etc are all political decisions that slow up adoption. I often hear noise cited as an issue, but that could be solved by just having a standard noise limit on the units. As long as it has the "hush mark" you don't need permission. Manufacturers making the damn things in almost any colour other than bloody white would help! As far as I can see the default white comes from air con units which are used in hot, sunny countries and any additional absorbed solar radiation hurts their efficiency. For aheat pump, any additional (however slight) gain from a dark casing on bright winters day can only help, and a black or brown or brick red box on the outside of a building is much less intrusive than a bright white box. How many of those plastic "garden lockers" are proposed up against the side of houses in the UK? Are planners up in arms over the visual blight?

All the faff is to do with the grant. I've looked at grants because I have potentially 30 odd properties to do. So I'm thinking £5k a property....nice. But the key bit is the cost to me. The fact that I'm getting £5k off something that would cost £14k still means I pay £9k, and if I could get a system for less than £9k without a grant it'm still better off. I plan intialky to tackle the electric only properties because they are going to win whatever. Then the gas properties, that will be harder as I will have to hit financial break even or the tenants will get cross. The other wrinkle, is I asked our EPC assessor what effect swapping to a HP would have (on an electric flat). His answer was "almost none". The EPC appears to be based on the state of play 10, 15 years ago when the grid was 50% coal and heatpumps were assumed to get cops of less than 2 at best. Until that's solved the EPC is a barrier (in fact it drove us to install gas in several properties as the easiest (almost only way) to get a C in an old property was stick a gas boiler in.

Exactly, and yes, if you can get away with heating only to 55 or 50C then great. That's an optimisation that can occur after you've fitted the heatpump. You can dial back slowly until you hit the point you're running out of hot water. But you can only do that once you've got a HP installed. The current system attempts to get your system to max efficency before install, which results in alot of upfront work, and because they add margins to make sure you aren't cold, they often end up overspeccing the system which adds a bunch of cost, and then if the system estimation has gone a bit wrong they still need up paying a bunch. If we could get installs cheap and easy and allow a "running in period" to get the system right, I think we'd get alot more installs *and* probably higher efficiency at the end. Maybe this analogy might help NASA take no risks with their SLS. Everything is precalculated to the Nth degree. Lots of custom stuff, expensive parts all contribute to the huge cost of rockets. Because they cost so much, they must work first time, so they spend even more time and effort making sure it works perfectly. Space X (and this is in no way am endorsement of Musk) took a different route, they were happy with the first rocket just taking off then blowing up. Because of that, each rocket was cheaper. Because if that they could afford it it to be perfect each launch. By the end they had a better system. The analogy isn't perfect of course, but my point is we need to aim to just get HP's out there operating at better than 2.5 SCOP and we're winning on CO2, after that it's just tuning them over time to get more an more.efficent. To do that we need to change regs and crucially remove the "bill shock risk" to allow the tuning period.

That would also be an option, and as you point out, fairly simple to arrange. But an immersion will only ever be a COP of 1. Even if the COP of the HP running at 65C, with defrost cycles etc is only 1.2, you are still using less electricity than an immersion. I think alot of HP thinking is still based on the old R410a systems that couldn't even hit 55C. The newer r290 units can hit a Cop of 2 at 65C and 5kw from a nominal 5kw unit. That's gotta be better than a 3kw immersion.

sadly most are not well set up. There are numerous old boilers kicking around that have one input (on/off) and a knob for cutout temp. The control system is a basic timer box that turns the boiler on/off and activates the diverter valve and pump. DHW is via simple timer, cutting out when the return temp hits the target. CH is via timer and thermostat, again cutting out when it hits the target. The flow temp has to be 65+ anyway to sterilise the DHW and the rads are all tiny single panels, which was all they needed to be with a flow temp of 65C. And it's microbore piping. He won't switch when his boiler dies because he'd have to change the rads, the plumbing etc. And if he has a gas boiler it's cheaper to run it at high temp and accept the slightly higher gas bills. But, if the swap were for a HP, that could deliver similar performance at the same cost, he'd go for it. The trick is how to do that? Same performance is an engineering problem, just need a similar flow temp and power output. He could probably get by with 10kw at 65C. Same price is a political problem - the 3.5:1 elec to gas price ratio is partially a political choice. It's not that in other countries. Some have gas and electric prices that are 2:1 others closer to 4:1. Some of that is engineering (the efficiencies of gas to electric conversion, generation mix etc) but as the price cap shows, it can be controlled by policy. If the price cap has capped elec at 20p and gas at 10p, the break even ratio for heat pumps would be really easy to hit (as it is in France and Sweden)

Yeah, the things that make a HP more efficient are also the things that make gas boilers more efficient. If we had been pushing for higher efficiency in heating systems (rather than just higher efficiency of the heat source in the lab) we would already be most of the way there for straight HP swapovers. That's partly why I like my price guarantee subsidy scheme. During the proce guarantee period you'd be getting bills saying "you generated X thermal kWh which used Y electric kWh that would have cost you £Z but for the subsidy. That subsidy will reduce over time, would you like some help with reducing your electric consumption?" (QR code to stuff about low temps, new cylinders, insulation etc) If the elec company has access to your thermal kWh, your HP electrical use, your flow temps and configuration and your EPC data, they could provide a really good steer on what you need to do. For example they could work out your cops, see if your flow temps were too high so suggest weather comp or bigger rads or maybe your thermal demand was too high for your house type and they can suggest insulation.

No but the HX coil sizing is based on a 65C or higher water temp. If you ran lower (which you could) your heatuomtimes would be slower. Of course, part of the optimisation would be to get the flow temp for heating the DHW (which is not the same as the DHW supply temp) as low as possible. It might be the slower reheat time and lower capacity of using a lower flow and DHW store temp don't impact the user, so could be used. But if the HP can deliver 65C you have a much lower risk that you *have* to change the setup. Note that you may still need occasional 65C flow for weekly pasteurisation cycles.

I agree. If designing from scratch a lower storage temp (with occasional pasteurisation cycles) would be better. But this was specifically about swapping out the gas boiler with a HP unit with the minimum faff Changing the water cylinder is often cited as a negative. It probably adds at least to 2k to the overall price. If you are willing to accept the efficency hit of running high (say 65C) you can leave the existing cylinder and DHW system as is. The goal is to make the swap over take no longer than swapping a gas boiler. Typically that's 2 men for a day. Maybe day and a half if you're unlucky. At the mother grant is 5k, but you need to jump through hoops to get it and some of those hoops push thr overall cost up so you end up paying £7k or more after the grant. Compare that with a new boiler for 2, 3k And after spending double or triple, you can still end up paying more. But if we made the swap cheaper. Got the price of the parts down below 5k and the labour below 2 days we could install for similar price to a gas boiler swap. That means not replacing the cylinder if we don't need to. Sure, the system won't be super efficient but as long as it beats a scop of 2.5 we are ahead in terms.of CO2. If there is a price guarantee scheme so you definitely won't pay more for your heating than gas I reckon uptake would shoot up.

Could you send me some info, the only ones I've come across are big and expensive Siemens ones.

the valve bit of the trv (not the detachable head) is designed to be on/off. it's just a flat rubber disc that pushes down on an opening. That said it can operate as a linear valve *if* the actuator can move small amounts (total travel from on to off is around 3mm) A screw actuator driven by a small motor and some fairly basic electronic would do it. Just needs to respond to "up a step" or "down a step" How about this. each room/zone has a thermostat with an unnumbered scale for set temp, an indication if the thermostat thinks you are at that temp or is trying to get you to that temp and two buttons for "i'm too hot" and "i'm too cold". These are just a temp sensor, basic display (could just be leds), two buttons and a wireless comms link. This should be fairly cheap Each rad has a clicky manual control knob with fine adjustment, so one click is a small change in flow rate. These should be dirt cheap. The pump is set to constant pressure so each rad should stay at same flow rate regardless of others. The central controller monitors zone temps and user demands for more or less heat. it then decides if that zone needs more or less flow and puts a suggestion to the user via a screen. "Increase zone 1 by 1 click" or "decrease zone 2 by 1 click" The key part of my pitch for a very open control system is that this could be just one of many options, you wouldn't be tied into whatever systems the HP manufacturer provides. One control system maker might have a complex system using variable trvs, controlling the pump output and deciding the HP flow temps with it's own web enabled AI. Another might be a dumb box that takes an old school on/off hall thermostat and commands a flow temp based on the external air temp flowing into the HP. Both could be interfaced easily with whichever HP is currently fitted (or any HP could be fitted and interface with the exisiting control system).

Auto blancing trvs would be useful. Ones that can micro open/close to control the flow rather than on/off. If they were paired with a room stat, which just tweaked the weather comp'd flow up or down a bit you could balance the rooms if that fed back to the main controller itncouod work out if the curve was too high or too low. So room stat looks at set and actual temp (plus the history) works out if the room is getting too warm because of too much flow, and then tweaks the flow down a tad. Waits a day repeats. Goal is to get a flow rate on each room that results in the least adjustments needing to be made.

For whole house load any system that requires measuring walls, estimating construction, guessing air changes will always be error prone. There are direct measurement methods, basically heat the room up mrleasuring the power input then let it cool down measuring the temps If you could do it passively, just measuring inside and outside temps and maybe smart meter consumption data that would be good Just leave the sensors in each room and one outside for a week or two and then the computer crunches the numbers and spits out some specs. The big problem is these techniques only work in the winter!

Regulators could be brutal and just mandate rs485 or ethernet or whatever. A 2 wire system with no defined poliairy would be good, but go to industry body and say - "sort it out amongst yourselves, we don't care but pick one". Then mandate the Comms protocols are published and free to implement. You are right, making the installation easy is key. For retrofits the option to run the DHW flow at 65c accepting the lower efficency for easier installation. The flow temp could always be turned down when a new cylinder was fitted. For combi replacements a simple UV cylinder with the absolute minimum safety features (overpressure to internal waste) because the heatsource (HP) can't ever boil it or an instantaneous electric water heater. https://www.superlecdirect.com/8829-redring-108kw-power-stream Tho, you now need a sparky to run a dedicated spur and breaker and your hot water flow isn't going to be as good as a 28kw combi. But it should be plenty for a shower, washing up etc.

Sorry, i meant systems that pipe the refrigerant onto the building and do the heat transfer to water inside exist. I don't believe your suggested system exists. The closest i's seen is a.daikin cylinder heated directly via a refrigerant coil supplied form a multisplit outdoor unit. Your system sounds very good and what I would say should be a target to aim for. Nice and simple and efficient. The idea in packaging a monoblock with everything in is very attractive. There are some units I've seen that have expansion vessel, air bleed, pump, flow sensors, the lot all in one unit. I would suggest they are the way forward for mass retrofits but for one wrinkle (which may not always be a problem) Size. All that gubbins makes the monoblock unit bigger. The mono bloc units are a chunk bigger than the splits (which are.just standard outdoor Aircon units) Finding space outside a house or flat for them outside unit is not always easy. If it is a boiler retrofit you already have a dedicated internal boiler sized space where the various pipes come to. So we can shift the volume of all the compomemts not needed outside, back inside and make the outside unit a bit slimmer and cheaper. As has been said, all the components are readily available. It's just a case of packaging or up and making it as easy as possible for someone to swap out a boiler. Swapping the boiler box on the wall for another box then plumbing that box with 2 pipes and 2 wires back to a box outside is fairly simple.

Oh and I would second not bothering with a wood stove. I have very well insulated house. (8" wool insulation, high speed windows, air tight etc). To be fair one IKEA bag of wood does heating and hot water for 24h and I have access to free wood. And there is something nice about a.fire on a cold winter's night. But..... We can only use our small 4kw to room, 6kw to water stove once a day if it is near or below zero. Otherwise we overheat. We run the stove a few dozen times a year. If the wind is in the wrong direction we can't run it because the plume goes towards the MHRV intake.....😱 The dust from loading/unloading is a pain. As is storing the wood and lugging it in and out. If I was building again, I wouldn't bother.

The CO2 unit's efficency is critically dependent on the return temp as mentioned. For heating the return temp is typically too high, say 35, 45C and the efficency crashes It might just work with a fan coil or UFH *if* you could get the return down to 22C or so. With a DHW the "return temp" is whatever the local water supply is, typically well below 20C, maybe even 10C in winter. The CO2 manual says it's critical to hear the cylinder in a stratified fashion, so you always have a very cold base to cool the return right down. If you try and run it like a typical heat pump it is very inefficient.

Split systems like that exist. The refrigerant enters the building and exchanges heat with the water in a "hydro box" inside. The issue with split systems.like that is 2 fold. 1) you need a F-Gas certificate and specialist tools (vac pumps etc) to fit one. The joints all have to be high pressure brazed or flare nuts. R290 (propane) is the probable future fluid. As you can imagine the regulations around people installing high pressure propane lines in the home are fairly strict. 2) the inside and outside box are effectively one machine, split in two (hence name). They need to talk to each other fairly comprehensively. This is often by proprietary protocols and interfaces. If you have a brand X outdoor unit, you need a brand X indoor unit. You can't just rock up to a merchant and grab whatever they have in-stock for repairs. Imagine if you needed Worcester Bosch radiators and cylinder to use a WB boiler. It would be hard to replace a rad or cylinder, particularly in an old system. So you end up replacing the whole lot. Which is more expensive. The goal is a system that is dead easy to install with little qualification required. A water split system could be plumbed from inside to outside in speedfit by a DIYer. The refrigerant circuit would be a sealed non-user serviceable item. So could be r290 with no additional risk or regulation. The inside and outside boxes could be different manufacturers because the outside box is only being instructed to control compressor and fan speed to achieve a set output parameter (flow temp) the interface would be a protocol probably modbus.