Scrap your new car now. Well not really.

[SteamyTea]

Environment

It’s good for the planet to scrap a new petrol car and buy electric

Carbon savings from driving EVs are so large that it makes sense to scrap a working petrol car to make the switch

Madeleine Cuff6 August 2026, updated 7 August 2026

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNi8wOC9TRUlfMzA3NDU2MzcxLmpwZw__.jpg

Electric cars are far better for the climate than traditional petrol vehicles

JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

In a straight choice between a new petrol car and a new electric car, on climate grounds the electric car wins easily.

But what if your existing petrol car is still working fine – or is even only a year or two old? Contrary to popular belief, the overall climate impact is lower if a new petrol car is scrapped in favour of an electric vehicle (EV), new research reveals.

Studies show that although EVs produce more carbon emissions when they are manufactured, they are responsible for much lower emissions when they are being driven compared with a petrol or diesel car. Overall, the whole-life emissions for an electric car are almost 90 per cent lower than for combustion engine vehicles.

How I pay almost nothing to power my house and electric car

Elliott Campbell at the University of California, Santa Cruz and Roland Geyer at UC Santa Barbara wanted to find out whether drivers should wait until their current combustion engine car is ready for the scrapheap before moving to electric.

Using US data, they analysed the emissions impact of scrapping a fossil fuel car and replacing it with an EV at different points, from scrapping a car that is just a year or two old to one at the end of its life. Their modelling accounts for the emissions associated with producing and running a new electric car, and other factors including variability in the grid electricity mix, vehicle efficiency, manufacturing emissions and mileage.

“We found that in the vast majority of cases, and even for a brand new gas vehicle, you would be far better off scrapping the gas vehicle and switching to electric,” says Campbell. “It takes more energy to build an electric vehicle, but the savings from driving the vehicle swamp all the upfront costs.”

Campbell stresses he doesn’t expect people to immediately scrap their brand new cars. Instead, the study aims to show that there is zero environmental benefit in keeping a fossil fuel car on the road until the end of its life.

The findings hold true for almost any scenario, except where an electricity grid is very reliant on coal power, or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than about 7000 km per year.

“The idea here is just to simply show what a huge advantage electric vehicles offer, so that when the opportunity to make the transition [is] something that people are ready and excited to do, by all means go for it,” says Campbell. “There’s no environmental concern to hold you back.”

Kenneth Gillingham at the Yale University says the paper takes a “clever angle”. “I think what they’re talking about makes perfect sense. I’ve thought about this before [but] I’ve never thought to write a science paper on it, and I’m impressed.”

 

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNS8wMS8yMzE1NDYyMS9TRUlfMjM3MDY1NDg1LmpwZz93PTkwMCZoPTYwMCZjcm9wPTE_.jpg

Electric cars now last as long as petrol and diesel counterparts

Records from UK vehicle safety tests show that the average lifespan of an electric vehicle is 18 years, and the reliability is still improving considerably from year to year

 

But Gregory Keoleian at the University of Michigan points out that the study is considering an “extreme case”. “It’s unlikely somebody’s going to purchase a combustion engine vehicle and retire it after a year,” he says.

Instead, those cars will likely hit the second-hand market, which could have knock-on economic and behavioural impacts, such as lowering the price of second-hand cars so dramatically that it convinces more people to switch from public transport to car use. More research is needed to model those potential impacts, says Campbell.

But the study’s authors say their findings lend support to the idea of subsidised scrappage schemes, to encourage people to scrap older fossil-fuel cars in favour of electric vehicles. Such policies could accelerate the EV transition in the US and help to cut transportation emissions, which are now the single largest source of carbon emissions in the country.

Journal Reference:

 

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.adv5441

 

Environment

It’s good for the planet to scrap a new petrol car and buy electric

Carbon savings from driving EVs are so large that it makes sense to scrap a working petrol car to make the switch

Madeleine Cuff6 August 2026, updated 7 August 2026

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNi8wOC9TRUlfMzA3NDU2MzcxLmpwZw__.jpg

Electric cars are far better for the climate than traditional petrol vehicles

JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

In a straight choice between a new petrol car and a new electric car, on climate grounds the electric car wins easily.

But what if your existing petrol car is still working fine – or is even only a year or two old? Contrary to popular belief, the overall climate impact is lower if a new petrol car is scrapped in favour of an electric vehicle (EV), new research reveals.

Studies show that although EVs produce more carbon emissions when they are manufactured, they are responsible for much lower emissions when they are being driven compared with a petrol or diesel car. Overall, the whole-life emissions for an electric car are almost 90 per cent lower than for combustion engine vehicles.

Read more

 

How I pay almost nothing to power my house and electric car

Elliott Campbell at the University of California, Santa Cruz and Roland Geyer at UC Santa Barbara wanted to find out whether drivers should wait until their current combustion engine car is ready for the scrapheap before moving to electric.

Using US data, they analysed the emissions impact of scrapping a fossil fuel car and replacing it with an EV at different points, from scrapping a car that is just a year or two old to one at the end of its life. Their modelling accounts for the emissions associated with producing and running a new electric car, and other factors including variability in the grid electricity mix, vehicle efficiency, manufacturing emissions and mileage.

“We found that in the vast majority of cases, and even for a brand new gas vehicle, you would be far better off scrapping the gas vehicle and switching to electric,” says Campbell. “It takes more energy to build an electric vehicle, but the savings from driving the vehicle swamp all the upfront costs.”

Campbell stresses he doesn’t expect people to immediately scrap their brand new cars. Instead, the study aims to show that there is zero environmental benefit in keeping a fossil fuel car on the road until the end of its life.

The findings hold true for almost any scenario, except where an electricity grid is very reliant on coal power, or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than about 7000 km per year.

“The idea here is just to simply show what a huge advantage electric vehicles offer, so that when the opportunity to make the transition [is] something that people are ready and excited to do, by all means go for it,” says Campbell. “There’s no environmental concern to hold you back.”

Kenneth Gillingham at the Yale University says the paper takes a “clever angle”. “I think what they’re talking about makes perfect sense. I’ve thought about this before [but] I’ve never thought to write a science paper on it, and I’m impressed.”

 

http://localhost:56805/wp-content/external_image/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV3c2NpZW50aXN0LmNvbS93cC1jb250ZW50L3VwbG9hZHMvMjAyNS8wMS8yMzE1NDYyMS9TRUlfMjM3MDY1NDg1LmpwZz93PTkwMCZoPTYwMCZjcm9wPTE_.jpg

Electric cars now last as long as petrol and diesel counterparts

Records from UK vehicle safety tests show that the average lifespan of an electric vehicle is 18 years, and the reliability is still improving considerably from year to year

 

But Gregory Keoleian at the University of Michigan points out that the study is considering an “extreme case”. “It’s unlikely somebody’s going to purchase a combustion engine vehicle and retire it after a year,” he says.

Instead, those cars will likely hit the second-hand market, which could have knock-on economic and behavioural impacts, such as lowering the price of second-hand cars so dramatically that it convinces more people to switch from public transport to car use. More research is needed to model those potential impacts, says Campbell.

But the study’s authors say their findings lend support to the idea of subsidised scrappage schemes, to encourage people to scrap older fossil-fuel cars in favour of electric vehicles. Such policies could accelerate the EV transition in the US and help to cut transportation emissions, which are now the single largest source of carbon emissions in the country.

Journal Reference:

 

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.adv5441

 

 

[Nickfromwales]

Who pays for the asset being scrapped? 
 

More tomfoolery……

[SteamyTea]

32 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

More tomfoolery

Explain that a bit more in the context of the article.

[saveasteading]

Scrap old cars (and American ones.) Give them the 2 year old ones.  Nwky carless person gets an electric.  Some paperwork involved there clearly.

 

Might be easier to give the electric car to the old banger owners instead.

[JohnMo]

More nonsense. The petrol car is made how does scrapping it make any sense. Typical CO2 emissions for a petrol car are 230g per mile, so 7000km is 1000 kg.

 

It takes 5 to 10 tonnes to produce an electric car, so already the electric car needs to exist 5 to 10 years to get pay back compared to an existing petrol car.  But that doesn't include grid CO2 to charge vehicle etc.which would extend CO2 payback also

 

Typical car average life before being scrapped is 17 years, except Ford's and Vauxhall which is sooner. So may make sense to scrap petrols at between around 10 years, but not a new car or 2 year old one. But scrap all diesels cars tomorrow would be my view.

 

But would need to be a voluntary scrappage system to encourage participation.

[sgt_woulds]

You are not thinking holistically.

 

The CO2 cost for burning fuel in an ICE car also needs to take into account the CO2 cost of extracting, manufacturing, and shipping the fuel to petrol station, the emmissions cost of spillages, emmissions during filling up the car, etc. Add to that the low efficiency of the engine in using the fuel (60% is wasted heat and friction) and the fun fact that you can only burn it once. 

 

Think well-to-wheel, not vehicle mpg and you will start to see the logic of studies like this.

 

Even when burning FF, electricity generation efficiency and minimal transmission losses make it far more efficient.  The most profligate EV (Ferrari, Maserati, ancient Enfield Electric) will still use the 'fuel' with +80% efficiency of conversion.  And, unlike ICE, you get some of the expended energy back when you brake or go downhill.

 

Add in that the valuable minerals in car batteries and drive systems will be recycled (+99.6% recyclability of materials, plus reusing Lithium from existing batteries saves more energy as it is already purified).  I heard an expert from a mining company say that within 20 years, most battery and magnet materials used in vehicles in the future will come from the circular economy rather than mining extraction.  The amount of CO2 used in the manufacture of an EV will be less than that to create an ICE vehicle within the next decade.

 

Unfortunately none of this helps me.  I drive less than 2500 miles a year and my diesel car has such low running costs in the grand scheme of things (insurance and TAX would both be higher on an EV) and the upfront cost of buying a second hand EV is too great.  The second hand value of my car is probably less than I pay for insurance and fuel each year!

 

I would dearly love to have an EV, but will only be affordable if I'm given a freebie, or a government grant/scrappage scheme that allows me to buy a very used EV

 

 

 

 

 

[joth]

On 10/08/2026 at 08:40, SteamyTea said:

The findings hold true for almost any scenario, except where an electricity grid is very reliant on coal power, or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than about 7000 km per year.

 

This is the key bit: scrap your car and move to EV if you drive more than ~4500 miles per year.

If you have very low annual mileage, like @sgt_woulds, it makes no sense.

If you have extremely high mileage, then of course moving to a lower cost-per-mile vehicle will pay off very quickly (for both financial and environmental cost)

 

We drive about 5000-6000 miles most years; I've put off getting an EV thus far because of this low mileage but as it's now 10 years old, and there's now a better range of equivalent EV available, so I should be picking up an ID.7 Tour tomorrow. Weirdly the insurance quote is actually less than my current Skoda - perhaps because this will be a company owned car (although my guess would have been that would only add to the premium). /shrug

 

[JohnMo]

1 hour ago, joth said:

Weirdly the insurance quote is actually less than my current Skoda

Insurance is stupid, our small ford van cost twice as much to insure as our 530hp Alfa Romeo. Both do about 6000 mile between them a year.

[sgt_woulds]

 

 

2 hours ago, joth said:

 

If you have very low annual mileage, like @sgt_woulds, it makes no sense.

 

 

Makes no sense other than for health of passangers / public.  I wish I had a big enough wallet to make the change on that basis.  

 

The numbers of petrol stations in the UK have started to reduce.  I guess there will be a tipping point when 'range anxiety' forces ICE drivers into electric... 🤣

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, sgt_woulds said:

The numbers of petrol stations in the UK have started to reduce

Down here, there is only 1 24/7 gas station.

Most of the rest close at 8PM during the winter.

 

Was not that long ago (in my mind) that the country was brought to a virtual standstill when the fuel depots where blockaded (Year 2000).

Was talking to a workmate who was talking about getting a hybrid (a shit 48V one).  I asked why not a full BEV.  Her reply "I am going to be driving to Camborne 4 days a week".

So a total of 120 miles and she can use a Granny lead at home for the 10 kWh a day it will use.