Octopus Flux

[S2D2]

15 minutes ago, MrTWales said:

Just to be clear, when you are with Octopus you can change tarrif without penalty? That's what they told me anyway. I have no idea what works best for winter, but Flux is way better than what I'm on now and I feel like I can manage things fairly well. It's also way better than what I'm on now for winter but it sounds like there may be better options, though of course all tarrifs can be changed or removed.

Last I heard they're all still variable tariffs so no fees for switching.

[SteamyTea]

50 minutes ago, MrTWales said:

No it doesn't, in the same way that my TV isn't too big. 

Umm.

There is a big price difference though.

Adding an extra 1m² of PV cost a lot more than adding 0.3m² of TV viewing area.

[MrTWales]

5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Umm.

There is a big price difference though.

Adding an extra 1m² of PV cost a lot more than adding 0.3m² of TV viewing area.

I'm trying to maxmise happiness and the extra cost, in terms of actual pounds, means nothing to me quite honestly. I wanted to maximise generation on the specific roof and there is nothing irrational about this.

 

However, I'm fairly sure that I could find a set of assumptions that would make the install close to optimal (as an actuary I can usually find assumtions to say what I want, but I won't go there).

 

In terms of the panels, the marginal cost wasn't that great. It's just one flat roof with four rows of three and it looks great.  If I'm getting anything half sensible for importing then it may be close to optimal anyway. Like I say though, I like getting what I can from the roof. Heck, don't we all spend time faffing about with calcs when the value barely justifies it? It's fun, right?

 

The battery is a different thing I guess, and initially I didn't think that a large battery made any  financial sense but the main thing putting me off was the size. When I saw how small the ones I have are then I got the larger option, and it wasn't as expensive as I thought. I didn't actually have as much choice in terms of parts as I'd like, without a wait, as parts were so scare last summer. I approached over 20 firms, put my details on sites like Bark, and hardly got anything back. They even used a larger hybrid inverter (for no extra cost) as they couldn't source the smaller one they costed for. As it happens, the quote I went with was the lowest despite having a bigger battery. As it is, it's big enough to last a day so charging at night means it's of value in the winter. Yes any saving, if there is one, is lower per pound of instal cost than a smaller battery but I really don't care! 

 

Back to TVs - if I consider a 20 year period, for example, then what I spend on TVs/soundbars etc over the cheapest options (second hand, smaller etc) will add up to plenty. It's still great value to me though!

[PhilT]

29 minutes ago, MrTWales said:

I really don't care! 

That seems to be a fairly common approach towards the cost/benefit of battery ownership.

[Nickfromwales]

17 minutes ago, PhilT said:

That seems to be a fairly common approach towards the cost/benefit of battery ownership.

I think anything that allows one to stick 2 fingers up to the grid brings a huge amount of satisfaction. We've had clients who will spend £10k, for a system that's guaranteed for 10 years, they know they'll get less than 10% RoI, and they still say yes please (as long as they're not negative at the end).

I do however feel that the electricity market will soon lend itself further towards the consumer, plus when V2G comes (probably closer than we think) then the rules will flip again.

The heart wants what the heart wants, end of, and I doubt anyone who's critical of these maths here would stand in the road screaming at Bentley owners saying "A Nissan Micra would have been a cheaper and wiser choice, Sir!".

We know it, they know it, just get on with your lives and let the Bentley guy enjoy his drive. Let's assume that, for the purpose of context, it was a sunny day and it was a Bentley convertible  

[SteamyTea]

22 minutes ago, PhilT said:

56 minutes ago, MrTWales said:

I really don't care! 

That seems to be a fairly common approach towards the cost/benefit of battery ownership

And on a more general note, the environment.

I include myself in the 'don't care' group, and it is backed up by my day to day behaviour.

[SteamyTea]

6 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

think anything that allows one to stick 2 fingers up to the grid brings a huge amount of satisfaction

Is that the same grid that powers businesses and public services? 

 

6 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

The heart wants what the heart wants, end of

Can I start to use cocaine and become a bigger prick than I already am? I will only buy from Swansea dealers if it helps sustainability.

 

6 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

let the Bentley guy enjoy his drive. Let's assume that, for the purpose of context, it was a sunny day and it was a Bentley convertible

I would be silently shouting "puff" but in a Welsh accent as it sounds better.

Edited June 21, 2023 by SteamyTea

[MrTWales]

28 minutes ago, PhilT said:

That seems to be a fairly common approach towards the cost/benefit of battery ownership.

If a smaller battery provides a better return then it doesn't mean that a bigger battery is a bad investment - even if you are purely looking at the expected value. The extra spend may still be better than the alternative investment.

 

I also hope that people try to maximise happiness and not focus on the pure financial side whereever possible, though this is of course correlated. We all do this every day!

 

As long as people aren't missled then it's all good imo. 

[Nickfromwales]

3 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Is that the same grid that powers businesses and public services? 

The same one that's bent us over for the last x number of decades, yes, that one.

 

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Can I start to use cocaine and become a bigger prick than I already am? I will only buy from Swansea dealers if it helps sustainability.

We will graciously accept any injection of funds to the local infrastructure. But please don't be any more of a prick.

 

5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I would be silently shouting "puff" but in a Welsh accent as it sounds better.

What, like a magician does when the rabbit disappears?

[Nickfromwales]

7 minutes ago, MrTWales said:

I also hope that people try to maximise happiness

Beer and bacon.  Roll on the hotel bar this evening, and breakfast at 07:00. 😋

[MrTWales]

2 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

Beer and bacon.  Roll on the hotel bar this evening, and breakfast at 07:00. 😋

This guy has it sorted!

 

Personally, I'm happy with a mug of Early Grey tea and a Lidl chocky doughnut and the smug smile you only get from having an oversized solar system. Oh my god I need to go out and get some of these!

 

[SteamyTea]

28 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

The same one that's bent us over for the last x number of decades, yes, that one

I think think ~50p a day, which is about what meter rental is (though there are other services that are included in that) to deliver my very reliable power supply is quite cheap.

 

For me, that is 0.06p/kWh.

I could, if I pulled the full 100A get that down to 0.00000086805555555p/kWh.

 

Not many people would want to do that for a job.

 

A kWh is the same as pushing a 1 tonne car, through 1 meter, every second, for an hour. Yesterday I used 4 kWh, so a small urchin would have worked very hard.

 

Not the grid that is the problem. It is a National Treasure

[PhilT]

2 hours ago, Nickfromwales said:

The heart wants what the heart wants, end of, and I doubt anyone who's critical of these maths here would stand in the road screaming at Bentley owners saying "A Nissan Micra would have been a cheaper and wiser choice, Sir!".

We know it, they know it, just get on with your lives and let the Bentley guy enjoy his drive. Let's assume that, for the purpose of context, it was a sunny day and it was a Bentley convertible  

I think you are spot on and it's a very interesting observation on the motivations driving the battery consumer market

[Nickfromwales]

22 minutes ago, PhilT said:

I think you are spot on and it's a very interesting observation on the motivations driving the battery consumer market

Don’t get me wrong, the majority still ask about a battery as a cash-generator, so those ones get dissuaded unless we can see a minimum 30% RoI, as anything under would equal shitty advice tbh. 

[Pocster]

Double glazed windows vs triple glazed. I've yet too see a ROI calculation on that.

 

This ROI argument can go on forever. The fact is a PV/battery storage will ( at some point ) pay for itself. The Bentley ( nor nissan micra ) probably won't, Neither will a 50" TV , my exclusive holiday abroad etc. etc. etc.

As I've said before ; most of you have got mortgages on your residential home. 25yrs later when it's paid off ; could have cost you easily over a £1million in interest payments alone. THAT IS DUMB!. But millions of people do it ( even with a repayment ) ; why?. No alternative?, maybe . ROI on that is well - pointless.

We all pick our own apples. Whether we eat them or not is a separate issue 💥

[TonyT]

That’s octopus energy dropped their charges approx 17%. 

[TonyT]

Was 10.268 p per unit of gas now 7.463p per unit of gas effective 1st July

[MrTWales]

1 hour ago, pocster said:

Double glazed windows vs triple glazed. I've yet too see a ROI calculation on that.

 

This ROI argument can go on forever. The fact is a PV/battery storage will ( at some point ) pay for itself. The Bentley ( nor nissan micra ) probably won't, Neither will a 50" TV , my exclusive holiday abroad etc. etc. etc.

As I've said before ; most of you have got mortgages on your residential home. 25yrs later when it's paid off ; could have cost you easily over a £1million in interest payments alone. THAT IS DUMB!. But millions of people do it ( even with a repayment ) ; why?. No alternative?, maybe . ROI on that is well - pointless.

We all pick our own apples. Whether we eat them or not is a separate issue 💥

This is why phrases like "utility" are used when trying to model decisions etc. Most people would rather £1m with certainty than £2.1m with probability 50%, as this would likely maximise their happiness even though the decision to take the £1m loses £50k in value. 

 

My 65 inch TV absolutely pays for itself in happiness units, as does the doughnut I'm about to eat! 

[MrTWales]

1 hour ago, TonyT said:

That’s octopus energy dropped their charges approx 17%. 

This is what I've just got from Shell. I guess there is some change in wholesale costs or something from 1 July.

 

Your electricity rates are changing from 33.282p to 30.222p per kWh. Your electricity standing charge per day will remain the same at 53.82p.

Your gas rates are changing from 10.467p per kWh to 7.664p per kWh. Your gas standing charge per day will remain the same at 29.11p.

[Pocster]

2 minutes ago, MrTWales said:

This is why phrases like "utility" are used when trying to model decisions etc. Most people would rather £1m with certainty than £2.1m with probability 50%, as this would likely maximise their happiness even though the decision to take the £1m loses £50k in value. 

 

My 65 inch TV absolutely pays for itself in happiness units, as does the doughnut I'm about to eat! 

“ Happiness units “ is now an official term . My happiness units in wine and steak are beyond measurement! 

[SteamyTea]

Happiness Units

 

Like twins, two halfwits don't make a whole wit.

[S2D2]

Some interesting pricing changes to Flux from July:

1. Import fees are reducing by ~8% for all three time periods
2. Export has different changes for each though:
   1. Peak reducing by ~11%
   2. Overnight reducing by ~20% (not that you would be exporting during this)
   3. Day reducing by ~13%
3. That changes the maths a little to make this tariff not quite symmetric:
   1. Old overnight import vs day export allowed ~8.5% efficiency losses to be symmetric, new is ~4%
   2. Old day import vs peak export allowed ~5% efficiency losses to be symmetric, new is ~2.5%

This makes peak export trickier, there will be some inefficiencies for a full discharge followed by buying from the grid until 2am, but still an incentive to not have charge left in the battery by 2am that you could have exported during the peak window.

 

Altogether not a game changer, still a very good tariff.

[S2D2]

Prices changing from October, though it's not a Winter tariff anyway:

 

Import down ~9%

Export down ~12-15%

 

Rates can no longer even pretend to be symmetric, so it seems it may be less of a no brainer next year. Intelligent looking good now that it pays 15p export but strict conditions for joining.

[MikeGrahamT21]

12 hours ago, S2D2 said:

Prices changing from October, though it's not a Winter tariff anyway:

 

Import down ~9%

Export down ~12-15%

 

Rates can no longer even pretend to be symmetric, so it seems it may be less of a no brainer next year. Intelligent looking good now that it pays 15p export but strict conditions for joining.

 

I've just got on to flux, and yeah was disappointed by the coming drop in export, but hopefully it'll still work out, if not i'll switch back. If you want 15p export, go with Octopus Outgoing Fixed, assuming its a solar install?

[S2D2]

3 hours ago, MikeGrahamT21 said:

 

I've just got on to flux, and yeah was disappointed by the coming drop in export, but hopefully it'll still work out, if not i'll switch back. If you want 15p export, go with Octopus Outgoing Fixed, assuming its a solar install?

It's still within say 15% of symmetric after losses so still better than other offerings, just primarily a summer tariff. I'll probably need cosy over the winter as the battery isn't big enough for no solar and the heat pump going. So that would mean outgoing fixed yeah for the tiny bit of winter export. They changed intelligent to allow you to be on outgoing fixed at the same time but I'd need an Ohme charger and probably a bigger battery so not really worth the hassle.