Local Electricity Bill... or fight to improve SEG

[Benguela]

10 minutes ago, joth said:

That doesn't sound right.

Don't get me started on this issue.

 

Octopus Outgoing is 7.5p.

 

Octopus SEG is 4.1p.

 

I'm on Octopus Go to charge my EV and Octopus won't allow you to be on the Go rate and the Outgoing rate at the same time.

 

If you get Octopus Go, they will only allow you to go on the Octopus SEG rate. 

 

Their reasoning is 'we've already got your business, you're tied to us now, so we're not going to give you a good Outgoing rate'.

[Ferdinand]

The number of FIT installs is more than quoted here - somewhere above 800k.

 

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2018-12-06/HL12105

>To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of how many homes in the UK have solar panels to generate electricity installed.

 

>17 December 2018

At the end of September, we estimate there were 805,000 domestic solar PV installations^1,2. A small proportion of homes may have more than one installation but it is not possible to identify these in the available data.

1. There were 789,122 domestic solar PV installations in Great Britain registered on the Central FiT Register at the end of September 2018, as published here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/sub-regional-feed-in-tariffs-confirmed-on-the-cfr-statistics
2. There were 17,267 sub 4 kW solar installations in Northern Ireland, registered for the NI Renewables Obligation as at the end of September 2018. It is estimated around 90% of these would be installed on homes. This is available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759558/Solar_photovoltaics_deployment_October_2018.xlsx

Answered by

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

[SteamyTea]

12 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

There were 789,122 domestic solar PV installations in Great Britain registered on the Central FiT Register at the end of September 2018,

I only looked at <=4 kW_p systems, not sure how much of a difference that makes.

I wonder where they got the 800k (ish) number from.

50 minutes ago, Benguela said:

Don't get me started on this issue.

 

Octopus Outgoing is 7.5p.

 

Octopus SEG is 4.1p.

 

I'm on Octopus Go to charge my EV and Octopus won't allow you to be on the Go rate and the Outgoing rate at the same time.

I am going to get you started, is the Go EV charging rate lower than Outgoing?

 

I still wonder how Octopus have such cheap rates, where are they buying from, and what are they paying.  There seems to be such a mismatch in what has been happening to wholesale prices and what they are charging.

[Ferdinand]

5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I only looked at <=4 kW_p systems, not sure how much of a difference that makes.

I wonder where they got the 800k (ish) number from.

I am going to get you started, is the Go EV charging rate lower than Outgoing?

 

I still wonder how Octopus have such cheap rates, where are they buying from, and what are they paying.  There seems to be such a mismatch in what has been happening to wholesale prices and what they are charging.

 

Systems under 4kWp are something like 93%.

 

I looked it up for a calculation on another thread.

That data I quoted for the authoritative source to kill the silly numbers above is late 2018. FIT was hoofed in mid-2019 so the actual is a little higher at 860k ish, but I could not find a definitive source for that quickly.

[billt]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

I still wonder how Octopus have such cheap rates, where are they buying from, and what are they paying.  There seems to be such a mismatch in what has been happening to wholesale prices and what they are charging.

 

Octopus rates aren't that cheap. The Go tariff is 7.5p per kWh for 4 hours during the night. The rest of the time the rate is 40.06p/kWh with a standing charge of 47.86 p per day in my area. My Octopus economy 7 rates are 21.4p per kWh night and 29.9 p per kWh day with the same standing charge. What you save in the headline rate they get back in the daytime rate, rather like economy 7.

[SteamyTea]

19 minutes ago, billt said:

Octopus economy 7 rates are 21.4p per kWh night and 29.9 p per kWh day with the same standing charge.

More than my EDF E7 standard variable rate, quarterly billing then.

So a bunch of crooks misleading the uneducated, figures.

[billt]

2 points; E7 daytime rates are always higher than the standard tariff and tariffs vary by electricity board region, so comparing your standard rate tariff with my economy 7 tariff is meaningless.

 

Octopus are no worse than any other supplier, the variable tariffs will all be much of a muchness.

[Benguela]

15 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

I am going to get you started, is the Go EV charging rate lower than Outgoing?

Outgoing = 7.5p, Go = 7.5p, SEG = 4.1p

 

According to their logic you can either have a cheap night time rate for your EV or a good rate for your solar excess, but not both.

 

Here's what they write about it:

 

Currently, you can't be on both Outgoing Octopus AND Octopus Go, our electricity consumption tariff designed for electric vehicle drivers. We've made this decision because both are such incredibly good value tariffs that it would be unsustainable for us as a business – the equivalent of letting people buying goods in a shop using a "3 for 2" offer and then bringing them back for a full price refund! The combination of Outgoing and Agile works really well and offers potential for great savings. You can choose to be on Octopus Go and join our new SEG tariff for Outgoing, offering 4.1p / kWh for your export – just get in touch with our team to take this option. https://octopus.energy/blog/outgoing/

 

They're basically saying 'this special offer cannot be used in conjunction with another special offer'. 

 

 

It strengthens my view that the electricity companies (or Octopus at least!) doesn't see SEG as a market rate that they are paying for a good that I provide. They see it as a loss leader.

 

 

 

 

 

[Benguela]

15 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

to kill the silly numbers above

How many FIT installs there are compared to non-FIT installs is certainly relevant... but it is not the heart of the argument.

 

Let me sharpen up the questions:

 

Question 1: Do domestic PV owners who export excess energy on average get market value for the electricity they export. 

 

To work that out, we'll have to find out what is the average price paid for a unit of exported solar PV, taking into account all of the people getting FIT, what FIT rate those people are on (not all the FIT rates are wonderful) and all the people not getting FIT. Then we compare the average price to the wholesale market price or, if you like, to the ahead prices that other solar producers are getting.

 

It is possible that PV owners are getting compensated just fine on average. But that will be mostly due to FIT pulling the average up. Us lot who only get SEG are getting between 1p and 4p. We are either 'idiots for missing the boat' or 'forced to sell at below market value' depending how you want to read the situation.

 

The more interesting question to me is this one:

 

Question 2: Are domestic PV exporters compensated for their excess energy on the wholesale electricity market... or is the rate for excess energy calculate outside the market.

 

As I understand it, FIT payments come from the green levy... Am I right or wrong about that? So that's outside the market.

 

Where do SEG payments come from? I think it comes from the electricity suppliers on the principle that the SEG scheme says 'you've got to have at least one SEG rate and that SEG rate has to be >0'. The electricity suppliers calculate SEG not by looking at how much the electricity is worth in the market, they just pay as little as possible. (Except obviously the Octopus Agile tariff that tries to create a little electricity market.)

 

This leads on to the most interesting question of all for me:

 

Question 3: What happens to the actual market value of all of the exported solar? Who gets that? Me and Radian worked it out and we call it £260million, but could be wrong.

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

21 minutes ago, Benguela said:

£260million

Sounds a lot, about a tenner a house.

Or 4 cups of coffee a year, or a packet of fags.

 

 

When you go to a restaurant, do you ever consider that you are probably getting £1.20 worth of food, the other £13.80 is for everything else.

 

Have you found a better source of data than the OFGEM spreadsheet I posted up?

[ProDave]

38 minutes ago, Benguela said:

How many FIT installs there are compared to non-FIT installs is certainly relevant... but it is not the heart of the argument.

 

Let me sharpen up the questions:

 

Question 1: Do domestic PV owners who export excess energy on average get market value for the electricity they export. 

 

I have a foot in both camps.  

 

Our old house has a system on the original high rate FIT.  I have no control on self usage etc, I just collect the FIT.

 

Our new house, it was a bit of a sore point at the time.  I tried to get a FIT system installed, but hit a brick will with needing an EPC of a certain rating.  the house was an unfinished shell so that could not get an EPC.  I tried in vain to get someone to issue a (possibly creative) EPC for the static caravan but just got the answer "they are exempt from and EPC"  I tried to get someone to write a letter saying the solar PV was going on an exempt building so no EPC required, but nobody would.  I tried contacting 2 of the DNO's directly to ask if my exempt building scenario would be accepted for FIT and both said probably not.

 

So I could not get a FIT system on the new house and ended up leaving it until last and as cheap as possible and DIY.  I do so well at self usage that it so far in nearly 4 years has only exported 330kWh  which even if I could get paid 5p per unit, would have paid me £16.50    On the other hand it still pains me how much FIT it would have received, if only it had been allowed.

[joth]

3 hours ago, Benguela said:

They're basically saying 'this special offer cannot be used in conjunction with another special offer'. 

 

 

It strengthens my view that the electricity companies (or Octopus at least!) doesn't see SEG as a market rate that they are paying for a good that I provide. They see it as a loss leader.

 

Indeed. This is the economics of marginal pricing. Two things to remember:

1. For each additional kWh you generate and export, the supplier cannot immediately find an additional kWh of demand to sell it to. Quite the opposite, at the moment you are exporting the demand will be dropping because many with solar is self sufficient and no longer importing. So you're giving them a good at the time they have least ability to sell it to achieve marginal revenue 

2. More broadly, the market rate for energy is going to be low at many the times you're exporting, so the cost savings of receiving exports is much lower than the fixed rate they sell it for.

 

If you want to be exposed to market rates for your exports, maybe try Agile Outgoing?

 

 I agree with the intent of the Local Electricity Bill and think p2p innovation will only happen with policy and legislation that enables it. But it's futile in a capitalist economy to be relying on a single supplier to drive this unilaterally from their own good will 

 

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, joth said:

2. More broadly, the market rate for energy is going to be low at many the times you're exporting

Yes, 80%+ of my electrical energy usage is at night, which I am quite happy with.  I would be more than happy to buy in a neighbours PV power at say 18p/kWh when I want it, not so sure they would be willing to sell it to me at that price when they would be buying it in for me at 28p/kWh.

[Ferdinand]

An OT question on this thread for someone who may know.

 

How close were we in the UK to power cuts last winter?

[SteamyTea]

28 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

How close were we in the UK to power cuts last winter?

Not at all as far as I know.

You can work it out from the NG delivery data and the installed capacity.

You could also look at the Triads system and see how frequently they had to disconnect large users, or just at the price on the ELEXON portal.

Capacity and price are not the same thing, nor is Capacity and security of supply.

Going to be interesting to se how they balance it this winter (assuming it is a very cold one), not sure how our EU gas supply partners will be to part with it.

 

I am all for a 3 days working week again.  Actually, no I am not, what I tend to do in the winter anyway.

[Ferdinand]

3 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Not at all as far as I know.

You can work it out from the NG delivery data and the installed capacity.

You could also look at the Triads system and see how frequently they had to disconnect large users, or just at the price on the ELEXON portal.

Capacity and price are not the same thing, nor is Capacity and security of supply.

Going to be interesting to se how they balance it this winter (assuming it is a very cold one), not sure how our EU gas supply partners will be to part with it.

 

I am all for a 3 days working week again.  Actually, no I am not, what I tend to do in the winter anyway.

 

Thanks.

 

I was looking at the National Grid Winter Early Outlook Reports for 21/22 and 22/23 and I could not see much difference - other than a somewhat lower risk this year. *

 

Supply / demand differences 22 v 21 appear to be that:

 

1 - we have 3.5 GW extra capacity of offshore wind on stream this year. = 1.8 GW constant as a comparison. +2 GW capacity due 2023. +2 GW capacity due 2024. That represents 15%+ of total elec demand, which should be a straight reduction in gas used to generate electricity.

2 - we have an extra 1 GW of elec interconnectors on stream, this year. +2GW due 2023. +2GW due 2024.

 

which looks much safer, and market differences

 

3 - Half of France's nuclear fleet is on the cronk, so they are importing 5-20%, and use significantly more than we do (obvs). A net importer for 2022 1st half.

4 - Norway have currently reversed their usual export flow, to preserve water in storage.

 

which looks a touch more risky but at least the Norway one will reduce unless we have a drought this winter.

 

F

 

* https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/264521/download

* https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/212691/download

[Ferdinand]

2 hours ago, Benguela said:

How many FIT installs there are compared to non-FIT installs is certainly relevant... but it is not the heart of the argument.

 

Let me sharpen up the questions:

 

 

Good to see your sharpened questions. My comments.

 

I think the core answer is that we are in transition to where a micro-power-generation market exists, but we aren't there yet. It is dependent on things like 2nd generation Smart Meters, and learning how to regulate MCS connections vs non-MCS to ensure safety,

 

FITs were a way of providing an on-ramp for solar - an upfront subsidy for the investment paid over the period where power was generated which was made smaller in time and rate as costs reduced. Dave paid £xxx (15k? for 4 kWp?) for his 2009 (?) install and gets 60p per unit generated index linked for 25 years. I paid £12k for my 10 kWp 2016 install at under half the cost per kWp, and currently get 14p per unit generated index linked for 20 years.

 

FIT payments come from fuel bills one way or another aiui, and I would put the total higher, which is still quite insignificant as perhaps a couple of % of total energy payments if that. FIT also covers wind, hyrdo and other sorts too, so you need to think beyond domestic pv.

 

For now you can get wholesale prices for your exports, yet we do not have a developed market, and there are compromises elsewhere.

 

I export about 3500 KWh per year, and I perhaps get 5p per unit for it. 

 

I think the question about getting market tariff is a temporary one that will go away when it stabilises. Just a wrinkle in the force that means come currently modestly lose and others gain. I have no divert device and default load, so I lose out export payments. 6 months ago I was hearing furioso noises from people whose Standing Charge had just doubled (to pay for unwinding bust companies etc) and was now 75% of their bill. This time standing charges are up by about 2%, gas rate by 50%, electricity rate by 25% (estimate).

which moved the market for, which was also a transition 

 

My view.

 

F

[joth]

On 19/09/2022 at 08:04, Benguela said:

Outgoing = 7.5p, Go = 7.5p, SEG = 4.1p

 

According to their logic you can either have a cheap night time rate for your EV or a good rate for your solar excess, but not both.

 

Just to throw the cat among the pigeons I just got this from them about Octopus Outgoing:

Quote

 

In the midst of an energy crisis it’s nice to be able to share a little good news: we’re doubling the rate of your Outgoing Fixed export tariff. This means every kWh you export - previously paid at 7.5p/kWh - is now worth 15p/kWh.

This change has already gone live as of the 20th September. You don’t need to do anything, we’ll take a reading from your smart meter and increase your export payment rate.

It’s more important than ever to ditch fossil fuels, and move to lovely green electricity as fast as we possibly can. We believe our energy system needs to become more flexible, more decentralised, and full of as many green electrons as possible.

 

 

I'm seriously starting to ponder if there's a legal way for me to be on Octopus Outgoing and my neighbour on Octopus Go, and we share a DC coupled battery with charging coming from the Go side and discharge via a pair of inverters into each house, and any excess solar getting exported out by the Outgoing side.

 

 

[Benguela]

18 hours ago, joth said:

 

Just to throw the cat among the pigeons I just got this from them about Octopus Outgoing:

 

I'm seriously starting to ponder if there's a legal way for me to be on Octopus Outgoing and my neighbour on Octopus Go, and we share a DC coupled battery with charging coming from the Go side and discharge via a pair of inverters into each house, and any excess solar getting exported out by the Outgoing side.

 

 

My jaw hit the floor!

 

That's so much more reason why it's unfair that you can't be on Go and Outgoing at the same time.

 

Take Joth's reasoning. If I'm on Outgoing and my neighbour is on Go, then the net effect on the grid is the same, right? One car gets charged and one PV system exports to the grid. 

 

So what is so wrong with house number 1 and house number 2 being the same place?

 

 

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

18 hours ago, joth said:

to throw the cat among the pigeons I just got this from them about Octopus Outgoing

What are the daily meter rental charges for the different tariffs?

[joth]

3 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

What are the daily meter rental charges for the different tariffs?

Octopus Go is 18p/day, going up to 38p/day in 2 days time (on the contract editions I'm on).

 

SEG and Outgoing don't have any standing charge, as they are export not import contracts.

 

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by joth