Greenhouse Gas Reduction - 2017 Stats

[Ferdinand]

An interesting graph on Carbon Reduction I came across. This is provisional data from March 2018, so there may be an updated version around somewhere.

 

The first is the sector mix in uk greenhouse gas emissions. I had not twigged that it was nearly half since 1990. In my head I thought perhaps a little more than a third.

 

The main caveat is that this excludes 'outsourced emissions' eg manufacturing moving to China.

 

 

There is an interesting discussion thread. The numbers in the graph are sourced from the latest Govt stats.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics-2017

 

 

The main conclusions I draw from this is that the sectors needing to make a really significant contibution to reduction next are Transport and Housing.

 

In Housing that imo mainly means grasping the  nettle of the the older (pre-2000?) owner occupied stock (regime already in place for Private Rental must be EPC-C by 2030 so more change difficult to assess; not sure about older Council Housing but it has had money thrown at it and has better reported standard).

 

In transport that means electric powered by renewables and in my dreams effective cycling infrastructure, and perhaps things being done with air travel and public transport. I have not seen numbers for public transport.

 

Thoughts?

 

Ferdinand

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Ferdinand

[gravelld]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

In Housing that imo mainly means grasping the  nettle of the the older (pre-2000?) owner occupied stock (regime already in place for Private Rental must be EPC-C by 2030 so more change difficult to assess; not sure about older Council Housing but it has had money thrown at it and has better reported standard).

 

 

Well, it depends on what standard we decide we need to fix to.

 

EPCs (via RdSAP) are going to have to be redesigned, because air permeability is so important to heat loss that it can no longer be ignored.

 

Furthermore the algorithm will have to be changed because simply slapping some PV on a house to get a C rating (I know, I've done it, and yet the house is also over 120 kWh/m2/annum - go figure) does not contribute to decarbonisation of space heating.

 

Which all means that it's going to be pretty much the entire building stock, including virtually all houses being built right now, not just pre-2000. Plus obviously new houses have to be built to Passivhaus or equivalent standard, but that's pretty obvious.

Edited October 10, 2018 by gravelld

[Ed Davies]

The graph is broadly good news, of course; better than most other countries. Far from enough though.

 

The bad news is that the power sector reductions aren't likely to be continued at anything like the same rate as they were because the biggest reduction has come from the switch from coal to gas and now we have a bunch of gas plants which will need to be used to justify their existence. Actually, if the absolute amount of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation stay flat but the total amount of electricity used increases as it's substituted for petrol, diesel, oil and gas with the bulk of the extra use coming from renewables then that would be a good result.

 

And, yes, I'd agree with @gravelld that air-tightness on the existing housing stock is a big issue. Maybe you shouldn't be able to get a C rating or better without doing a blower door test?

Edited October 10, 2018 by Ed Davies

[Ferdinand]

On Residential

 

In terms of reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions rapidly, I think a focus on newish builds - whilst regs and EPCs are certainly a thing that needs fixing - is a bit of a red herring. It is the 10% not the 90% in carbon emissions terms,

 

All the houses built in the last decade comprise only approximately 5% of the housing stock. Going back to 2000 only comprises a little over 10%. And those are the most efficient portion.

 

According to *this* 2010 (ish) report "F & G banded homes in Great Britain - Research into costs of treatment" done for the Energy Saving Trust, there was 19% of our housing stock in bands F&G. That is now down to less than 5%, all of which is either in the social rented or owner occupied or an exception or being rented illegally if in the PRS.

 

Looking at these numbers from the English Housing Survey 2017, I think I would argue for an initial +2% on Stamp Duty for Fs and Gs, and a +1% on Ds and Es, to keep the improvements happening - perhaps hypothecated to energy improvements on Hard-to-Improve properties.

 

F

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Ferdinand