Understanding Octopus Outgoing Tariffs

[Ferdinand]

Following my previous thread about getting onto an Octopus Outgoing Agile tariff, I am now on it so this thread is about understanding how to use it.

 

The previous thread has been closed.

 

I'll be asking a few questions to start it off.

 

Ferdinand

[Ferdinand]

Previous related threads:

 

My thread about accessing the tariff (which was frozen to close this one):

 

 

[Ferdinand]

At the end of week one, these are the import and export numbers:

 

 

An average export price of something like 25p per unit, and import prices rising from 27p to 33p suggests a approximate break even on electricity in real time at this point. It is still better to use than export, however the payment is around 4.5x the FIT export rate for me.

 

Unit rate (per kWh)

Sep 50.866p

Oct 33.018p 

 

There's work to do on the panels, and hopefully on a questionable tree obscuring a large chunk of my panels. Should be able to do better than that number.

 

[Ferdinand]

So I'm at the final step of moving to Octopus Agile - getting on for the actual payments. This has taken since August, and is clearly still a developing process.

Received yesterday:

Quote

Good morning,

Thanks for your patience whilst we’ve been working on your Outgoing application.

I have good news - we’ve finished processing your application. Your export is now on supply.

You'll need to send a FIT reading to your supplier today and ask that they use it as your final deemed FIT export reading, in favour of a negotiated export tariff with Octopus. Please then forward on their confirmation that FIT export payments have been withdrawn so that we can commence the Outgoing tariff export payments.

You will still receive your FiT generation payments.

Kind regards,

XXXXXX X
Smart Product Team
Octopus Energy

 

Ferdinand

[S2D2]

How are you finding the October rate? I've just checked and looks like currently the 15p flat rate would be better? Haven't done the sums over the month yet though.

[Ferdinand]

On 31/10/2022 at 11:58, S2D2 said:

How are you finding the October rate? I've just checked and looks like currently the 15p flat rate would be better? Haven't done the sums over the month yet though.

 

Just had this month's bill in. My export rate over the last week has been 9.14p per unit. Previously it was closer to the 15p, but since it is now minimal export month, and I still have other things to optimise (takes beady look at dodgy horse chestnut tree that needs to be removed before it starts dropping things on my roof), I'll not play with a switch yet to Fixed Outgoing.

 

Presumably if it stays low, Octopussy will reduce the 15p back down a bit.

 

My other interesting point is that I have been running the gas manually for an hour or so in the morning before the sun is up to prime the house a little, and having forgotten to switch off on a couple of occasions, my gas bill has rocketed to .. er .. £47, of which about 50-60% was forgetting to turn it off.

 

Guess which days 😁. Time to reprogram the wotsit.

 

 

Low export season (but I do tend to run the heat pump a little if I am exporting - ideally for 2-3 hours in the morning to get some heat in).

 

The are export vs consumption for the last month. Obvs the missing one is solar self-usage. Yesterday may have been thrown off because I had quite a nasty hypo for about half of it, and the middle of the day was just lost, so I would be less aware of what was going on; it took some time for instinct to kick in and OJ to be drunk. And there may have been some things left on overnight by mistake from Saturday. Plus it has also been dark during the days with the sun on holiday somewhere.

 

 

[S2D2]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

Presumably if it stays low, Octopussy will reduce the 15p back down a bit.

Thanks for the feedback, it does seem like a revert to 7.5p is inevitable unless winter price rises kick in soon. Time to revisit the PV forecasts.

[Ferdinand]

33 minutes ago, S2D2 said:

Thanks for the feedback, it does seem like a revert to 7.5p is inevitable unless winter price rises kick in soon. Time to revisit the PV forecasts.

 

I don't think they will move that fast.

 

Octopus are making a very big play imo to dominate the developing microgrid, so they will want to keep their offer very attractive for self-generators. There are only 1 million solar exporters at present, and whoever locks in that market will get a helluva leg up.

 

I can also see them trying to get Ovo, for example, at some stage - but may attract regulatory attention.

 

They have been happy making losses to date, and will be so for some time more.

 

A key hinge point will be April (or rather the budget in March) when the current support is reviewed.

 

And I'd see wholesale prices staying high for some time; the Govt will be quite desperate to keep their expenditure down, whilst balancing that with making inflation come down rapidly. The forecasts when the support packages were announced were 5% off inflation.

 

FWIW I think that serious powercuts are very unlikely; we have spent this year propping up the European Grid and Gas Network, so I'd say we have plenty of capacity if necessary.

 

The only real issue I see is if Putin starts sending subs and ships after interconnectors and offshore cables, and I suspect he has been told that if he does that then there will be a *serious* response.

 

Ferdinand

 

[S2D2]

39 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

I don't think they will move that fast.

 

I was surprised when I checked the agile rates and they'd dropped so soon after the 15p fixed increase so maybe it's just a blip, depends how many of their customers swap over I guess, probably most will ride it out. I had assumed rates would stay high for two years. End of the day it only makes 2 years difference to the system payback so not a major issue.

 

I don't have time for the power cut scaremongering, nearly laughed at the solar installer when he offered a £1k upgrade for an off-grid switching system, we'll do just fine without.