Sorry if this is not the right place for this, we're just desperate for some outside opinions that aren't so close to the problem and aren't trying to sell us something!
So we're pretty torn over what to do regarding installing a heat pump, probably a GSHP, or not bother, during construction of our extension, which requires moving our entire boiler/pump room anyway.
We've got a 300m2 1890s detached house in the South East. Empty cavity walls on the ground floor and solid walls on the first floor. Loft has been insulated. We're building an extension at ground and 1st floor to one side which will be insulated to current regs, plus the kitchen has already been extended 10 years ago to the rear. So basically 3 out of 4 elevations on the first floor remain original, while 2 out of 4 at the ground floor are original, that is to say poorly insulated.
We've had HP sales guys around who have done their heat lose survey and they're coming up a heating + hot water demand of 46,000kWh and us needing a HP with in excess of 17kW capacity. They're suggesting either a 22kW Ecoforest unit or a 12kW Nibe unit while keeping the gas boiler in a hybrid system (ie boiler takes over at a certain temperature when the HP won't handle the load). The Ecoforest is coming in at around £52k with £31k RHI and the Nibe at £44k with £33k RHI. The sales guys headline figures using electricity and gas pricing they've pulled out of the air come up at saving around £500pa on running costs. Not a huge amount with £10-£20k install costs remaining to pay off.
I've followed along on the calculations using our actual figures from last year (which don't include the new extension obviously). In 2020 we used 41636kWh of gas, basically all for space and water heating. We're currently paying basically 16p/kWh for electricity and just under 3p/kWh for gas. If the boiler is 92% efficient and a Nibe GSHP has a SCOP of 4.17 we're needing about 9100kWh of electricity instead of all that gas. All in all I'm coming up at actually costing around £300 more a year!
We're struggling to see what the point of installing a heat pump in the house, given its age, and retro fitting etc etc.
The sales guys are touting things like the Climate Change Levy coming in to tax gas thus making it far more expensive (as far as I can tell the CCL is business only tax?).
Attempts to insulate would benefit both gas and heat pump in terms of lowering running costs, although under a hybrid heat pump system the backup gas boiler would kick in less often I guess.
We've also looked at PVs (might get a 3000kWh system in, not much free energy for the install cost of around £7k) and storage batteries to work with both PVs and variable tariffs like Octopus Agile (which I worked out given a sample few days over Jan 2021 might save us an average of £1 a day, again, maybe 20 years to pay off install cost at todays prices, far in excess of their warranty).
On the flip side, gas prices are apparently set to rise even without taxation and we might have to install a secondary boiler in the extension (actually an annexe) anyway so there's £5k install cost anyway and more running cost.
Or, do we wait a few years to see if the GSHP install costs come down or the efficiencies go up? The fear there is the government subsidies might disappear.
Does anyone have any advice, we're pretty conflicted!?!