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Brexit ( sorry mentioned it )

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Does it / will it need a sea change in the UK public's attitude to mitigate effects on imports? Get off your ar$es into the garden and grow your own, waste less food etc.

 

Whilst I'm on me soapbox, make the kids wash the car for their keep instead of paying some East European at Sainsburys and keep the money here, buy a jar of Nescafe and drink instant (feeling some shudders on here with that one)....

 

Now the Chinese have always used their own "night soil" as fertiliser...

 

I forsee carrots growing on the central reservation and cricket pitches being ploughed up...

 

;)

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9 hours ago, Onoff said:

mass employers in the UK like Toyota

 

Toyota Burnaston actually only employs 2500 people to make approx 150k cars per annum. It is not a mass employer.

 

That is fewer than Bentley at Crewe, or McLaren if you take the whole organisation.

 

I was surprised, though I knew it was relatively small.


F

Edited by Ferdinand

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I had a tour of Burnaston a few years ago, and it's really just an assembly plant, rather than a manufacturing plant.  The "parts" coming in were pretty complete sub-assemblies, being shipped in from all over the place.  I wasn't terrifically impressed, TBH, but Toyota were very welcoming and hospitable (the group of us were all early Prius owners).

 

The really impressive car plant I've been to is Nissan.  I spent a week there looking at their JIT process and it's as impressive as hell.  Not sure how many people work there, but at a guess I'd say over 5000, as it's a pretty massive set up.

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1 hour ago, Onoff said:

Does it / will it need a sea change in the UK public's attitude to mitigate effects on imports? Get off your ar$es into the garden and grow your own, waste less food etc.

 

Whilst I'm on me soapbox, make the kids wash the car for their keep instead of paying some East European at Sainsburys and keep the money here, buy a jar of Nescafe and drink instant (feeling some shudders on here with that one)....

 

Now the Chinese have always used their own "night soil" as fertiliser...

 

I forsee carrots growing on the central reservation and cricket pitches being ploughed up...

 

;)

 

As far I I know, the Germans make a point of buying their own, it would be nice if we could produce our own then buy it.

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5 hours ago, JSHarris said:

The key point being "if tariffs were introduced".

 

We have no way of knowing if tariffs would be introduced, or not, and if there were, what the impact of them might be.  It's all just speculation, as we have no hard evidence at all at the moment to form any judgement from.

 

Worst case might be if the EU decided to whack punitive tariffs on anything coming from the UK, but then if they did that they would be risking the UK putting punitive tariffs on goods and services from the EU.  Or, perhaps, the UK could offer tax or other incentives to non-EU businesses to stay in the UK, or to move more of their business to the UK.  The UK would be free to do this post-Brexit, but would probably be shooting itself in the foot if it tried to.

 

Both sides need to trade with each other, and trade is always a two-way deal, with compromises being reached in order to satisfy the needs of both sides. 

 

Unfortunately that's not correct. The EU is obliged under WTO rules not to discriminate for or against any country that they do not have a trade deal with. If we leave without a deal the good news is they cannot hit us with penalty tariffs. The bad news is that they MUST hit us with the same tariffs that they apply on goods from other non-EU countries.   

 

This is a pro-Brexit site..

 

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/pulling-down-the-barriers-to-world-trade/

 

One consequence of leaving the EU without a trade agreement is that the

EU will be entitled – indeed obliged under the MFN principle – to charge its standard tariffs on imports of goods from the UK into the EU27. While the UK can control and therefore reduce the level of tariffs on imports from the EU27, we prevent the EU from charging its standard tariffs on goods flowing in the opposite direction. WTO members are not allowed to discriminate in the level of tariffs they charge, so UK exporters cannot be penalised by the EU compared with exporters from other countries..

 

Here is a list of what the EU charged non-EU countries in 2017. If we trade on WTO rules the EU is obliged to charge these rates on UK exports to the EU until we do a trade deal...

 

Average-EU-tariff-by-product-type-2017.png.e334b02676915954044f89baf0bf2716.png

 

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Note the above table is average tariff. For imports of Lamb from non-EU countries I think the total EU tariff is something like 50% (outside of a quota system) so virtually none gets into the EU. If we end up on WTO rules there will likely be a surplus of lamb in the UK next year. Perhaps there will be calls to subsidise our sheep farmers (until we can win some of that quota)?

Edited by Temp

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The problem is that we just don't know what the deal will be, so assuming "no deal, WTO rules" is every bit as speculative as any other assumption as to what an outcome may be.  It's unclear exactly what is in the deal that's on the table in the longer term, as it seems dependent on negotiations that will take place after next March, during the transition period, as far as I can tell.

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Doesn't 'no deal' mean no transition period, though?

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1 hour ago, JSHarris said:

It's unclear exactly what is in the deal that's on the table in the longer term, …

 

Indeed, long-term it's hard to say but surely a no-deal exit means tariffs starting midnight Fri March 29th until whenever further negotiations are complete. Years probably.

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50 minutes ago, Crofter said:

Doesn't 'no deal' mean no transition period, though?

 

Yes, but "no deal" has to be the barking mad option, IMHO.  We would be insane to just walk away from what is a very influential trading bloc without any sort of a deal.  All along I've been clear that the concept of a common market is an excellent one.  All I personally object to is the concept of a federal Europe, where all member states are subservient to an overly-bureaucratic (and more than a bit undemocratic) European government. As a united trading group, operating under common market rules, the concept of a united Europe is a very good one.  As a single Federal entity, gradually eroding and removing the sovereign rights of member states I believe that the EU project is a deeply flawed idea.

 

If the EU was to announce that it was dropping its Federalist objectives, and reverting to the original concept of being a united common market, I would wholeheartedly support it, and lobby as hard as I could to withdraw our Article 50 notice to leave.

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1 hour ago, Temp said:

Note the above table is average tariff. For imports of Lamb from non-EU countries I think the total EU tariff is something like 50% (outside of a quota system) so virtually none gets into the EU. If we end up on WTO rules there will likely be a surplus of lamb in the UK next year. Perhaps there will be calls to subsidise our sheep farmers (until we can win some of that quota)?

does not seem to be a problem for NZ +Australia after we crapped on them on joining the EU ,and you have a short memory on what france did to our lamb sales a few years ago  even though we were a memeber of EU

you keep forgetting that we are a NETT contributor to EU  --so we would have money to support farmers anyway .

have you forgot about the butter mountains and wine lakes caused by eu CAP .

take a good long hard look at the eu and its problems and you will see its not the bed of roses you seem to think +this deal means we have to abide by thier rules but will 

NEVER,NEVER have an input on policy changes

you really think they will give a crap about untill they have protected all thier own farmers and producers --wkae up --get real --look at the strokes they have already pulled and the ones in the pipeline .

eu army to name but one-- we are one of the few that pay our 2% into nato now --you think it will be any different in EU army --we will be paying most but have NO control  or even a voice over where our troops go .

 

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12 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

 

Yes, but "no deal" has to be the barking mad option, IMHO.  We would be insane to just walk away from what is a very influential trading bloc without any sort of a deal.  All along I've been clear that the concept of a common market is an excellent one.  All I personally object to is the concept of a federal Europe, where all member states are subservient to an overly-bureaucratic (and more than a bit undemocratic) European government. As a united trading group, operating under common market rules, the concept of a united Europe is a very good one.  As a single Federal entity, gradually eroding and removing the sovereign rights of member states I believe that the EU project is a deeply flawed idea.

 

If the EU was to announce that it was dropping its Federalist objectives, and reverting to the original concept of being a united common market, I would wholeheartedly support it, and lobby as hard as I could to withdraw our Article 50 notice to leave.

think you need to wake up --the "common market " which is why we joined died a long time ago -- 

how many eu major producers of anything have built new factories in uk  over last 20years --no they all go to the ex eastern block countries now for the cheap labour

the japanese car makers can here because of our labour laws --too restrictive in france and germany --but it gave them an entry  to the EU and the EU owned companies like peugeot (owned by french government)  moved out same as vauxhall (opel/GM) , to protect thier own workforces --so much for fair dealings .and that was when we have a voice 

ford have done the same moved production to cheap parts of europe.

I suspect if we do leave you might see a reversal  to get a tariff free access to our market+ rest of world

they need our biz same as we need theirs --but we dont have lots of hangers on --like the EU does with all the countries that are NETT takers and will be for the foreseeable future.

 

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2 hours ago, JSHarris said:

The problem is that we just don't know what the deal will be, so assuming "no deal, WTO rules" is every bit as speculative as any other assumption as to what an outcome may be.  It's unclear exactly what is in the deal that's on the table in the longer term, as it seems dependent on negotiations that will take place after next March, during the transition period, as far as I can tell.

 

Indeed. We've basically spent 2+ years negotiating the right to have another 20 month negotiating period. Calling it a transition period is wrong.

 

All we know about the final deal is what's in the political statement. That document looks like a bit of a fudge as both side can claim it's met their incompatible red lines. I can't see them agreeing the final deal in 20 months. I think they will need to extend the transition period to avoid going into the backstop provision.

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1 hour ago, scottishjohn said:

Does not seem to be a problem for NZ +Australia after we crapped on them on joining the EU ,and you have a short memory on what france did to our lamb sales a few years ago  even though we were a memeber of EU

 

NZ lamb is a great example of how a no deal will hurt us. NZ has a trade agreement with the EU under which the EU takes 239,000 tons of lamb with no tariff. Of that the UK currently takes 40%. 

 

If we leave with no deal NZ will still have the right to import ALL  230,000 tons into what's left of the EU with no tariff. However imports from the UK to the EU will face tariffs of up to 50%, so NZ will be at a considerable advantage to the UK. EU farmers won't like it either. 

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7 minutes ago, Temp said:

 

NZ lamb is a great example of how a no deal will hurt us. NZ has a trade agreement with the EU under which the EU takes 239,000 tons of lamb with no tariff. Of that the UK currently takes 40%. 

 

If we leave with no deal NZ will still have the right to import ALL  230,000 tons into what's left of the EU with no tariff. However imports from the UK to the EU will face tariffs of up to 50%, so NZ will be at a considerable advantage to the UK. EU farmers won't like it either. 

So we will just eat UK lamb instead.  It always has struck me as madness to send the stuff all the way round the world.

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We might, but there is a reason why we eat NZ lamb and export UK lamb.

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